Transcript Demand reduction is key

Biofuels and Climate Change
Biofuelwatch
www.biofuelwatch.org.uk
introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, biofuelwatch and UK
Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Council
Denmark
September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Summary
• Climate Change background urgency to avoid catastropic climate
change
• Public policy debate has been
sidelined
• Certification = no viable answer
• Agrofuels / biofuels are accelerating
climate change
• Descending the transport emissions
curve - Demand reduction is key
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September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Emission sources
• Deforestation, agriculture and peat
• Anthropogenic energy
From Stern
Report
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September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
Arctic 2007 Summer Ice Melt
Non-linear effect?
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September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Descending the fossil emissions curve
- Demand reduction is key
Current EU energy policy
Biofuels being sold at this level
160
– BUT IS THE OPPOSITE
140
TRUE?
120 90% carbon emission
reduction
needed
100
Energy efficiency and energy
URGENTLY!
reduction
80
Carbon management – use less carbon
60
40
Decarbonise – switch from carbon completely
20
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1990
September 2007
2000
2010
Biofuels and
Climate Change
2020
US / EU Biofuel Policy –
going off the graph
EU – 10% by
2020 (1% now)
US – 20% by
2020 (4% now)
2010
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September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
2020
Agrofuels –
no public policy debate
• Even current 1% EU penetration has
taken us into ‘downstream’ phase of
implementation
• Yet, there has been no consistent or
complete scientific and policy
scrutiny
• Bypassed by Governments and
industry
• Public policy debate is urgently
needed – moratorium is needed to
facilitate this
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September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Certification context
• Governments’
response to no
public policy debate
is to develop
‘certification
schemes’ or
‘sustainability
criteria’
• Calls for
international scheme
(UK Govt., Ford etc)Biofuels and Climate Change
Denmark
September 2007
Certification schemes
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) balances
–URGENT need for full lifecycle,
whole system (macro) carbon
balance studies
• Direct and indirect environmental impacts:
Deforestation, loss of habitats / biodiversity,
water depletion, soil erosion, chemicals
• Direct and indirect social impacts:
Poverty, land conflicts, human rights, labour,
food security and sovereignty
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September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Sustainability criteria
• Driven by interests of industry and
government
• Displacement / leakage not handled
– Existing agriculture displaced by agrofuels
moves into new areas
• Macro impacts through commodity price
shifts not handled
– Amazon deforestation ←→ soy price
• US Corn for ethanol displaces US soy => soy price
– EU oilseed rape use causes palm oil prices
causes palm oil expansion
Denmark
September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Do Agrofuels save emissions?
• Agrofuel infrastructure is built on
Fossil Fuel infrastructure
– Intensive agriculture – fossil fuel based
– fertilisers, farm equipment, Nitrous
oxide emissions (300* CO2), soil carbon
emissions
– Feedstock transport, shipping, ports
– Refining (coal, gas fired plants!) ;
process chemicals
Denmark
September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
N20 needs further study
• microbes convert N fertiliser to N2O
– NEW STUDY by Nobel prizewinner Paul Crutzen, August
2007 : 3 to 5 per cent = twice the widely accepted
figure of 2 per cent used by the International Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC).
• oilseed rape biodiesel, for example, is up to 70%
worse for the climate than fossil fuel diesel (also
corn ethanol)
• UK and EU Biofuels policy and certification
schemes in scientific doubt
• N2O emissions – chemical fertilizer impact
greater in tropics
• Both EU home grown biofuels and tropical
imports
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September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Massive destruction beyond
N2O - Agrofuels are
accelerating climate change
Fires to clear land for palm oil,
Kalimantan
Photo by Nordin, Save our Borneo
Deforestation for oil palms,
Colombia
Peat drainage and destruction
Drainage
• Dry peat - oxidises and, over time, emits
all its carbon as CO2. 42-50 billion tonnes
of carbon stored in those SE Asian
peatlands.
Fires
• Many set by plantation companies, greatly
accelerate the loss of carbon.
• Of the 27.1 million hectares of peatland in
South-east Asia, 12 million hectares are
deforested and mostly drained.
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September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Agrofuels as a new driver of
peatland destruction
Indonesia plans 20 million hectares new oil
palm plantations to meet biodiesel demand.
$17.4 billion investment deals in Indonesian
palm oil agreed this year.
According to 2006 FAO report, growth in
European rapeseed oil biodiesel has
significantly pushed up global palm oil
prices.
Denmark
September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Deforestation
• “with partial deforestation the entire
landscape could become drier and a
domino effect could occur producing
a ‘tipping point’ affecting the whole
forest”.
Conclusion of recent scientific conference
• Amazon drying out – die-back threat
increasing - 120 billion tonnes of
carbon dioxide
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September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Amazon Deforestation and
Drought
Deforestation in Novo Progreso,
Brazil ; Alberto Cesar/Greenpeace/AP
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September 2007
Amazon drought 2005, Lake Rei
Biofuels and Climate Change
Massive
Massive
emission
land-useexports
change in
from
industralised
global South, and
nations
crop commodity
to global South
traffic
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September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Emission trickery
Exporting emissions
from Northern
transport to Southern
agriculture and landuse
NB: Soil + Peat
not included
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September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Descending the transport emissions
curve - Demand reduction is key
160Reduce vehicle emissions by 50%
Current EU energy policy
- smaller, more efficient vehicles
140
120
100
90% carbon
Reduce
journeys –emission
planning, modal shift,
80
60
decouple needed
transport
reduction
URGENTLY!
from economy
Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids
40
Change Supply - Concentrating Solar Power
?
20
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1990
September 2007
2000
2010
Biofuels and
Climate Change
2020
The Climate Context
• 1st generation biofuels
– Scientific doubt on N20 for all fuel supply
chains including EU oilseed rape
– Already a climate disaster
• Eg Indonesian peat lands
• Deforestation tropics
• Yet mass-scale infrastructure and investment
ready
for
Wend are
currently
in ‘first generation’
• 2 generation biofuels
world
there
is a gap to any viable
– 15-20– years
to develop
– BUT emissions
must be
now generation’
second
generation
– cut
‘first
– Biohazards (even now in R&D)
problemsboreal
mustandbe
addressed
– Deforestation
temporate
•   Transport sector
DEMAND
Biofuels
and Climate Change
REDUCTION
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September 2007
Networking
• What factsheets, lobbying support would be
useful for your organisation?
• immediate moratorium call on EU incentives
for agrofuels, EU imports of agrofuels and EU
agroenergy monocultures.
http://www.econexus.info/biofuels.html
• Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo group - send a
blank email to [email protected]
• www.biofuelwatch.org.uk
• Email us at [email protected]
if you
Biofuels and Climate Change
would like to get more involved in the campaign.
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September 2007
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Biofuels and Climate Change
Mega-scale Agrofuel drivers
• Government and corporate subsidy and
promotion
• Fits “Business as usual” policies and paradigms
– Year-on-year economic growth
– Avoid unpopular “demand reduction” politics
• Short term “energy security” fix
– Less pressure on Oil hotspots – Mid-East/Iraq
– Stabilising Oil price?
– EU / US “Oil independence”
• New global mega-industry and infrastructure
– agribusiness, biotech, and chemical sectors
– refining, tankage and shipping sectors
– commodity markets (eg Palm Oil, sugar, corn)
Denmark
September 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change