Transcript Analyzing the Future of Rural Forests in MA

Analyzing the Future of Rural Forests
in Massachusetts - Implications for
Conservation
Jonathan Thompson
[email protected]
What if?
or…
or…
Writ large…
For a given climate scenario…:
Developed?
Harvested?
Forest
Condition
Aggregate
changes
Conservation?
Wind or Ice?
Establish, Grow,
Compete, Die
& Decompose
Map species
& biomass
For a given climate scenario…:
Developed?
Harvested?
Forest
Condition
Aggregate
changes
Conservation?
Wind or Ice?
Establish, Grow,
Compete, Die
& Decompose
Map species
& biomass
Actual Forest Loss to
Development
1985 to 1999
Probability of Future Forest Loss
Simulating Current Trends:
Housing Development
Size of New Developments
60
50
N = 300
Ave = 55%
count
40
30
20
10
0
0
20
40
cover
60
80
100
Simulating Current Trends:
Housing Development
• 4300 ha /yr
• 5 development treatments
(historical size and
intensity)
• Historical spatial
distribution
For a given climate scenario…:
Developed?
Harvested?
Forest
Condition
Aggregate
changes
Conservation?
Wind or Ice?
Establish, Grow,
Compete, Die
& Decompose
Map species
& biomass
Simulating Current Trends:
Timber Harvest
Actual Timber Harvest
1985 to 2004
POPULATION DENSITY
> 13,000 Harvests
Legend
2
3
Probability
4
14
Harvest
15
17
18
27
Development
Simulating Current Trends:
Timber Harvest
• 10,500 ha/yr
• 6 different treatments
(historical size, species &
intensity)
• Historical spatial
distribution
For a given climate scenario…:
Developed?
Harvested?
Forest
Condition
Aggregate
changes
Conservation?
Wind or Ice?
Establish, Grow,
Compete, Die
& Decompose
Map species
& biomass
For a given climate scenario…:
Developed?
Harvested?
Forest
Condition
Aggregate
changes
Conservation?
Wind or Ice?
Establish, Grow,
Compete, Die
& Decompose
Map species
& biomass
Fifty-years of Carbon sequestration at “Current Trends”
=
=
=
=
+ 70%
- 8%
- 2%
+6%
50
75
Percent Change (%)
100
ate rv
ate
im H a lim ev
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+
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ly
ate v
ate
ate
ate
on
ate
e
lim Har C lim v
lim v
lim
t
m
i
v
a
C
C
l
C
r
r
e
C H a lim
No ev + No + D No + H a No
C
+
+D
0
25
50
0
Biomass (Tg)
150
100
200
Growth only
Conversion
Timber Harvests
Climate Change
Not a lot of difference in relative spp abundance.
100
Sim1_CT
60
BELE
BEPA
40
BELE
FAGR
ACSA3
QURU
TSCH
PIST
20
% of Total Aboveground Biomass
80
ALL OTHER
0
ACRU
0
10
20
30
Simulation Years
40
50
• White Pine and Red Maple were 1st & 2nd irrespective
• Climate change reinforced their dominance
• Harvesting reduced Red Oak from 11 to 9.5%
• Development was indiscriminate in terms of species
TAKE HOME MESSAGE:
ASSUMING FUTURE LAND USE RESEMBLES THE RECENT PAST
1.
CONTINUED FOREST RECOVERY WILL BE THE DOMINANT
MECHANISM DRIVING FOREST DYNAMICS OVER THE NEXT
FIFTY YEARS
2.
CLIMATE CHANGE MAY ENHANCE THE RATE OF CARBON
SEQUESTRATION, BUT THIS WILL BE MORE THAN OFFSET
BY LOSSES DUE TO LAND-USE, PRIMARILY FOREST
CONVERSION TO DEVELOPED USES.
"Future Directions"
1. Complete multiple, stake-holder driven
scenarios for MA
2. Link a series of alternative scenarios to
metrics of water and habitat quality
3. Develop New England-wide approach
4. Host workshop with potential partners in
other regions
Questions?
Jonathan R. Thompson, PhD
Research Ecologist
Smithsonian Institution
[email protected]
540.635.6580
subsequent slides are for use in case of questions.
Initial Forest Condition
MA GNN Work led by Ty Wilson, USFS Northern Research Station
Initial Forest Condition
From Imputation of field data:
Species Distributions,
Age Class Distributions,
Above Ground Biomass
Initial Forest Condition
100
200
300
r = 0.7
RMSE = 44Mg ha-1
0
LANDIS AGB (Mg/ha)
ACRU
PIST
TSCA
QURU
BELE
ACSA3
FAGR
BEPA
BEAL2
FRAM2
QUAL
QUVE
PRSE2
QUCO2
PIRI
QUPR2
POTR5
POGR4
PIRU
CAOV2
CAGL8
OSVI
NYSY
BEPO
ABBA
0
100
200
FIA AGB (Mgha)
300
400
Simulating Current Trends:
Housing Development
Species Harvested
LANDIS-II: Forest Landscape Simulator
Scheller and Mladenoff
LINKAGES
Pastor et al.
LANDIS-II WITH MODULES
PEST
SEED DISPERSAL
COMPETITION/
SUCCESSION
HARVESTING
CONSERVATION
LAND USE CHANGE
IPCC
CLIMATE
SCENARIOS
TREE SPECIES
ESTABLISHMENT
LIVING BIOMASS
ANPP
INSECTS / DISEASE
DEAD BIOMASS
PnET-ii
Aber et al.
SPATIALLY INTERACTIVE
PROCESSES
NON-SPATIAL COMMUNITY
PROCESSES
Parsing the Current Trends
Sim 1
Sim 2
Sim 3
Sim 4
Sim 5
Sim 6
Sim 7
Climate Change
Timber Harvest
Development
Simulation experiment with full factorial design and
five replicates of each simulation (based on power analysis)
Sim 8
16%