Transcript Power Point Version - Earth Observing Laboratory

Climate Process modeling Team
(CPT)
Ming Ji (NOAA/OGP)
NAME Science Working Group
Nov. 6, 2003
NOAA ISIP Program
• Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of climate
forecasts and application products to manage risks and
opportunities of climate impacts due to intra-seasonal to
interannual climate variations
ISIP Program Components
1.
High-end model development

(e.g., NCEP, GFDL, GMAO, CCSM)
2. Experimental Prediction
3. Forecast and Application Products Development
4. Research and Development (e.g., NAME)
 Observing and understanding
 Improving physical representation in models
 Transition research into operations
 (e.g., improving operational models through CPTs)
 Legacies:
 Thinking about impact on “operations” before
thinking about the next process study
CPT as a Framework to Facilitate the Path of
Research to Operations
• CPT is an attractive framework for linking theory,
process studies and experiments, diagnostics, process
model development, climate and prediction models,
and observations.
• CPTs focus on improvements in major (operational)
climate models as deliverable
Process experiments
and observations
Climate Process Teams
Cooperative Development
Data, knowledge
Process model
development
Climate model
development &
improvement
Lack of focus, little
interaction
Deliverables
Documented observations
Improved parameterizations
Impact evaluation
Plans for additional process studies
Observing requirements
Climate Process modeling and science Teams
• Improving key deficiencies of physical processes
(parameterizations) common in climate models
 Model intercomparison projects are insufficient to
address how to improve physical processes in models
• Bridging the large gap between process research (process
observation and process modeling) and climate model
development efforts
• Guiding (some of) future process studies
• Identifying sustained observational requirements
Approach
•
Provide resources to small teams of observationalists,
diagnostic scientists, process modelers, and (one or more)
developers of climate models:
– Focus on interaction & deliverables (not manuscripts) that
lead to demonstrated improvement in climate models
– Establish collaborative efforts between the research
community and modeling centers
– Encourage active long-term mechanisms
– Management mechanisms (Institutional and programmatic
commitment)
NSF-NOAA Pilot CPT
Development
Pilot Phase Summary
• US CLIVAR developed concept and recommended scientific
areas where rapid progress was likely (GFDL-CCSM
Priorities)
• NSF and NOAA announcement (2003: ~$2.5M per year) to
address critical issues in IPCC class climate models
• Three Pilot CPTs established (2003) to demonstrate the
concept:
– Low-latitude cloud feedbacks on climate sensitivity
– Ocean mixing in overflow regions (e.g. over steep
topography)
– Mesoscale eddy interaction with upper-ocean mixing
April 2002 GFDL/NCAR Workshop on Atmospheric
Model Development
Recommendations for science process teams:
What are the highest priority problems on which to focus attention in
order to improve climate change models on < 5 year time scales?
1) Cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity
How can we best confront our models with observations to improve cloud
prediction schemes so as to reduce the uncertainty in global climate
sensitivity?
2) Deep tropical convection and convective
parameterization
Deficiencies in tropical convection schemes are a major impediment
towards creating better coupled models and simulating regional climate
change
Climate Feedback Differences
Between GFDL and NCAR Models
Low level cloud changes at 2xco2
Climate sensitivity rankings
Timeline for Pilot CPTs
 2002-2003: Planning




CCSM-GFDL workshop
CPT white paper
Tropical Bias workshop (double ITCZ)
Vest in the community
 (CCSM-SAB, CLIVAR-SSC/SSG, WCRP/JSC, NRC)
 Spring 2003:
Joint NSF-NOAA AO
 Summer 2003:
Reviews
 Sept. 2003:
Funding Decisions
 Low-latitude feedbacks on climate sensitivity
 Three high-end modeling centers (CCSM, GFDL, GMAO)
 Eight University research groups (PIs)
 Ocean mixing processes (2 teams, all Major OGCMs)
 Oct. 1, 2003:
Start of 3-year projects
NAME CPTs ?
 Goal: Improving operational weather and climate models
through NAME obs and NAME science
 2004:
Planning
 High priority processes: NCEP-GMAO-GFDL? Others?
 Diurnal Cycle?
 Convective Precip over complex terrain?
 Vest in the community
 (NAME, VAMOS, GAPP, PACS, others)
 Winter 2004/05: AO ?
 FY06 Starts ?