Transcript PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IN

PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER
SOUTH AMERICA IN THE
SUMMER SEASON
IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA IN THE
WINTER SEASON
IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Gabriela Müller
Kelen Andrade
Iracema FA Cavalcanti
CENTRO DE PREVISÃO DE TEMPO E ESTUDOS CLIMÁTICOS
INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAIS
ANOMALOUS PRECIPITATION
OVER SOUTH AMERICA
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NATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY
ENSO CONDITIONS (EL NINO / LA NINA)
TELECONNECTIONS
INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION
BEHAVIOUR OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS
BLOCKING SITUATIONS
ETC
DROUGHT IN
1997/1998
DROUGHT IN 2005
DROUGHT IN
2000/2001
THE QUESTION IS:
WILL THE ANOMALIES CHANGE
IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
OVER SOUTH AMERICA?
HOW THE INTENSITY OF NATURAL
VARIABILITY CAN CHANGE IN THE
FUTURE?
MODELS
DJF PRECIPITATION
CMAP/CAMS
CPTEC/COLA AGCM
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL (50W-40W; 15-25S)
Extreme wet years composite
Extreme dry years composite
Extreme wet years composite Extreme dry years composite
IPCC-4
MODEL SIMULATIONS
20 CENTURY
SRES A2
MODELS
HADLEY HADCM3
GFDL
PRE-INDUSTRIAL
1% CO2 INCREASE
HADGEN
MRI
ECHAM
CANADIAN
EXPERIMENTS
1% CO2
EXPERIMENT
SRES A2
Increase from CO2= 286.05 ppm at 1% /year
rate to doubling, then constant to year 280.
Other gases cte from 1860
High degree of global economic
development (means high concentration
of greenhouse gases)
(2000-2100)
20TH CENTURY
EXPERIMENT
PRE-INDUSTRIAL
EXPERIMENT
Considers all anthropogenic forcings
during the period of 1860 to 2000 (140
years)
Forcings agents representative of 1860
conditions constant. Include all
greenhouses gases (280 years)
PERIODS OF ANALYSIS
• LAST 51 YEARS FROM EACH
SIMULATION
• DJF (S.H. SUMMER)
• 20 CENTURY : 1949-1999
• SRES A2: 2048- 2098 OR 2049-2099
OBSERVED
PRECIPITATION
20 CENTURY
DJF 1979/1980
TO 1999/2000
MODELS SIMULATIONS
GFDL
MRI
HADCM3
OBSERVED
PRECIPITATION
MODELS SIMULATIONS
HADGEN
ECHAM
CANADIAN
PRE-INDUSTRIAL EXPERIMENT GFDL
Difference between two
periods in the pre-industrial
experiment (year 71 to 280)(year 11 to 70).
The changes are very small,
consistent with the absence
of anthropogenic forcings.
ANNUAL GFDL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 1%CO2
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 1%CO2 AND
AND 20th century EXPERIMENTS
PRE-INDUSTRIAL EXPERIMENT GFDL
GFDL
The impact on precipitation is seen in the region of
South Atlantic Convergence Zone
and Southeastern South America considering the two
experiments.
GFDL (USA)
DIFFERENCES (FUTURE -20TH CENTURY)
1%CO2
DJF
SRES A2
HADCM3 (UK)
DIFFERENCES (FUTURE -20TH CENTURY)
1%CO2
DJF
SRES A2
20 CENTURY
GFDL LAST PERIOD 1% CO2 INCREASE
250 hPa
850 hPa
Difference between SRES A2 and 20th century wind flow
HADLEY.
EXTREME MONTHLY
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES
DJF
• Average of precipitation anomalies over
several areas of South America
• 5 extreme years (+ and -)
• 20th century and SRES A2
• Hadley and GFDL
AREAS
E
W
AmazoniaAmazonia
N
La Plata
S
La Plata
AREAS
NE
SE
GFDL
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES
GFDL
20th century
A2 ANOMALIES RELATED TO
THE CLIMATOLOGY OF 20TH
CENTURY
AMAZONIA
WESTERN
SECTOR
EASTERN
SECTOR
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES (AMAZONIA)
GFDL
LA PLATA NORTHERN SECTOR
LA PLATA SOUTHERN SECTOR
GFDL
GFDL
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES LA PLATA SOUTHERN SECTOR
GFDL
NORTHEAST BRAZIL
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES NORTHEAST BRAZIL
SOUTHEAST (50W-40W; 15S-25S)
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES SOUTHEAST BRAZIL
HADLEY
20th century
A2 ANOMALIES
HADLEY
AMAZONIA
WESTERN
SECTOR
EASTERN
SECTOR
NORTHEAST BRAZIL
LA PLATA NORTHERN SECTOR
LA PLATA SOUTHERN SECTOR
SOUTHEAST Brazil
HADLEY
PRECIPITATION ANOMALY CORRELATIONS AREA 15S-25S; 40W-50W (SOUTHEAST)
GFDL
GFDL
20th century
SRES A2
HADCM3
HADCM3
EXTREME PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES SOUTHEAST
(50W-40W; 15S-25S) 20th century
GFDL
HADCM3
NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES
GFDL
HADCM3
POSITIVE
ANOMALIES
EXTREME PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES SOUTHEAST
(50W-40W; 15S-25S)
GFDL
SRES A2
HADCM3
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER
SOUTH AMERICA
• CNPq colaboration project Argentina,
Uruguay, Brazil.
• Objective: Identify frequency and intensity of
extreme cold air outbreaks in the present
climate and in the future.
• Will the global warming affect the frequency
and intensity of the cold air outbreaks?
TEMPERATURE CHANGES
(annual)
GFDL
1% CO2 increase
– preindustrial
1% CO2 increase
– 20 century
Frequency of cold air over Brazil,
Argentina and Uruguay
• Daily data at (925hPa), 850 hPa
• SLP, meridional wind and Temperature
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Average over areas
52W-57W; 23S-28S (Brazil)
52W-57W; 28S-33S (Uruguay)
65-60W; 33-38S (Argentina)
criterium
• Temperature interval (0-2.5c , < 0c)
• Reduction of temperature (5-8c; 8-10c;
>10c)
• Increase of SLP and southerly flow at
850hPa
ARGENTINA
STATIONS
18
16
14
12
10
frec NCEP
frec OBS
8
6
4
2
0
1964
OBS: TEMP. AT 2m
Reanalysis: 850hPa
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
Anos
2100
2099
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
Número de Ocorrências
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2098
2097
2096
2095
2094
2093
2092
2091
2090
2089
2088
2087
2086
2085
2084
2083
2082
2081
2080
Número de Ocorrências
ARGENTINA - Categoria 0 - 2,5
NCEP
GFDL
HADDiário
TEMP. 850 hPa
0-2.50 c
1960-1990
Argentina
65-60W
ARGENTINA - Categoria 0 - 2,5
Anos
33-38S
HADDiário
GFDLF
FUTURE
Anos
2100
2099
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
Número de Ocorrências
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2098
2097
2096
2095
2094
2093
2092
2091
2090
2089
2088
2087
2086
2085
2084
2083
2082
2081
2080
Número de Ocorrências
ARGENTINA - Categoria < 0
NCEP
GFDL
HADDiário
TEMP. 850 hPa
<0c
1960-1990
Argentina
Anos
ARGENTINA - Categoria < 0
65-60W
33-38S
HADDiário
GFDLF
FUTURE
Anos
2100
9
2099
10
19
19
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
Número de Ocorrências
9
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
10
2098
2097
2096
2095
2094
2093
2092
2091
2090
2089
2088
2087
2086
2085
2084
2083
2082
2081
2080
Número de Ocorrências
BRASIL - Categoria 0 - 2,5
TEMP. 850 hPa
NCEP
GFDL
HADDiário
0-2.50 c
8
7
6
5
1960-1990
4
3
2
Brazil
1
0
52W-57W
Anos
23S-28S
BRASIL - Categoria 0 - 2,5
HADDiário
GFDLF
8
7
6
5
FUTURE
4
3
2
1
0
Anos
19
19
19
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
Número de Ocorrências
9
2100
9
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
10
2099
10
2098
2097
2096
2095
2094
2093
2092
2091
2090
2089
2088
2087
2086
2085
2084
2083
2082
2081
2080
Número de Ocorrências
BRASIL - Categoria < 0
Temp. 850 hPa
NCEP
GFDL
HADDiário
<00 c
8
7
6
5
4
3
1960-1990
2
1
0
Anos
BRASIL - Categoria 0 - 2,5
5
4
3
2
1
0
Brazil
52W-57W
23S-28S
HADDiário
GFDLF
8
7
6
FUTURE
Next criterium
• Calculate anomalies and analyze the
extremes in each area.
• Use SLP and meridional wind to get cases
associated with frontal systems.
CONCLUSION
COMMON FEATURES IN THE
MODELS
• INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH/
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.
• REDUCTION OF PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA.
• THERE IS AGREEMENT IN
CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH EL
NINO INFLUENCE IN SOME REGIONS
REGIONS WITH DIFERENT
RESULTS IN DIFERENT MODELS
• SUGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN
CHARACTERIZING THE FUTURE
CLIMATE IN THESE REGIONS.
•
AND
• THE NEED TO ANALYSE RESULTS OF
OTHER MODELS.
• MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
• Extreme monthly anomalous precipitation
intensifies in some regions
• Dipole patterns are reproduced in 20th
century and future climate scenario
• Extremes are connected in some areas
Frequency of cold air cases
• Number of cold air outbreaks are better
simulated by Hadley model (20th century)
in two areas of South America.
• Frequency reduces in SRES A2 scenario
• (still analysing the intensity)
WORK IN PROGRESS
• IDENTIFICATION OF MECHANISMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CHANGES.
• ANALYSIS OF MODEL PATTERNS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR
OUTBREAKS
• ANALYSIS OF DAILY PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE DATA TO IDENTIFY
EXTREMES
• ANALYSIS OF OTHER IPCC MODELS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
To CNPq for research support
To CNPq/Prosul project
To international modeling groups for providing their
data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model
Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for
collecting and archiving the model data, the
JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling
(WGCM) and their Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project (CMIP) and Climate Simulation Panel for
organizing the model data analysis activity, and the
IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data
Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
is supported by the Office of Science, U.S.
Department of Energy.