Transcript Carbon Day Out 2_Doug Alcock-1

The impact of projected climate
change on Monaro farms.
Climate Change Adaptation in Southern Australian Livestock Industries Project
Doug Alcock
Livestock Officer (Sheep and Wool)
Southern Livestock Adaptation 2030
• National Project
• Uses modelling of
– Climate
– Pasture / Livestock Systems
• Compares current systems (1971 – 2000)
with the same system in a projected climate
(2030)
• Looking for adaptations to reduce impacts
What is a Global Climate Model?
Global climate models (GCMs) combine knowledge
of Physics, Fluid Dynamics and Chemistry to
describe how
– atmosphere,
– oceans,
– Land
– Volcanic activity
– living things
– ice
– Solar energy
affect each other and Earth's climate.
What is a Global Climate Model?
• Equations are iterated on a
10 minute interval
Projections from 2000
How is has Temperature tracked since 2000?
Source IPCC IV
Related trends?
Turning Global Scale Modelling into
local projected weather!
• GCM,s operate as a broad brush.
– Around 200km resolution
• Each cell gives a regional scale projection
Converting Climate to Weather
Which emissions scenario?
…Which GCM’s?
Best GCM’s
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
GFDL 2.1
ECHAM5 OM
2030
How can we assess the likely impact?
• Just as with projecting climate change
modelling is the only way.
• One appropriate model is GrassGro
Pasture
Soil
Weather / Climate
Livestock
How will plants respond to increased CO2
Leaf Photosynthesis
Leaf Water Loss
Reference Stomatal Conductance (m/s)
Relative Assimilation Rate
9.0
1.20
1.15
C3 Grass, Legume
8.0
C4 Grass
7.0
C3 Grass
C4 Grass
Legume
6.0
1.10
5.0
1.05
4.0
3.0
1.00
2.0
0.95
1.0
0.90
0.0
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
• Increased photosynthesis in C3 grasses and legumes (growth)
• Reduced water use
• Lower crude protein in grasses (higher CO2 availability dilutes Nitrogen)
Climate Change at Bungarby
Base Farm System
•
•
•
•
Merino Ewes
2.5 ewes/ha
Nov Shorn
Unfertilised native pasture on Stony Basalt.
– Poa, Stipa, legume, annual grass.
• Sell progeny at 14 months
• Feed to maintain CS 2.
Bungarby’s weather data past and 2030
Annual Rainfall
Annual Max / Min temperature
1971 to 2000
544 mm
18.3 C / 4.8 C
2000 to 2009
451 mm
19.1 C / 4.8 C
CCSM (USA)
605 mm (+11%)
19.5 C / 5.9 C
HadGEM1 (UK)
561 mm (+3%)
19.1 C / 5.7 C
ECHAM5-OM (German)
439 mm (-19%)
19.7 C / 5.7 C
GFDL 2.1 (USA)
488 mm (-10%)
19.5 C / 5.9 C
Bungarby projected 2030 rainfall compared to 1971-2000
1971-2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Monthly Ave. Temp compared to “1971 -2000”
30
25
Temperature °C
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Jan
Feb
Mar
CCSM 3.0
Apr
May
Jun
HadGEM1
Jul
Aug
Sep
ECHAM5-OM
Oct
Nov
Dec
GFDL 2.1
Bungarby projected pasture growth rate
1971-2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
SUSTAINABILITY - EROSION
Source: FERTILISER: A key to Profitable Livestock Production & Sustainable Pastures
• SOILLOSS software - DLWC
Annual Minimum Ground Cover
@ 2.5 ewes/ha
Median
Top 25% of years
Middle 50% of years
Bottom 25% of years
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Baseline @ 2.5 ewes/ha
70% of years Min GC > 80%
13.8% of the time below 80% GC
Echam @ 2.5 ewes/ha
30% of years Min GC > 80%
46.7% of the time below 80% GC
Echam @ 0.7 ewes/ha
63% of years Min GC > 80%
13.8% of the time below 80% GC
Merino breeding past and future
Median Annual pasture
kgDM/ha
Sustainable Stocking
Rate
Average Profit/ha
1970 to 2000
5833
2.5 ewes/ha
$72
2000 to 2009
4717
2.5 ewes/ha
(1.5 ewes/ha)
$52
($8)
CCSM 3.0
6697
2.6 ewes/ha
$89
HadGEM1
6720
2 ewes/ha
$46
ECHAM5-OM
4258
0.7 ewes/ha
-$31
GFDL
5712
1.6 ewes/ha
$20
Projected profit for merino breeding at Bungarby
2000
2001
2002
2006
2005
2007
2003
2004
2008
2009
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Annual Supplement (per ewe)
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Annual supplement fed (per ha.)
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Wool Cut
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Condition Score at lambing
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Reproduction
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Ground Cover
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Some other locations and
enterprises
• Beef production near Nimmitabel
–
–
–
–
British Breed
Weaner Steer with heifers retained to yearling
Improved pasture (Fescue / Sub. Clover)
Fertilised deep duplex Granite soils
• Merino’s west of Bombala.
– Self replacing merino flock
– Cocksfoot/Sub with some cork-screw and annual
grasses.
– Fertilised deep loamy gradational soil (metasediment)
Projected Rainfall
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
1-J
an
15
-Ja
n
29
-Ja
n
12
-Fe
b
26
-Fe
12 b
-M
a
26 r
-M
ar
9-A
pr
23
-Ap
r
7-M
a
21 y
-M
ay
4-J
un
18
-Ju
n
2-J
ul
16
-Ju
l
30
-Ju
l
13
-Au
g
27
-Au
10 g
-Se
p
24
-Se
p
8-O
c
22 t
-O
ct
5-N
ov
19
-N
ov
3-D
e
17 c
-D
ec
Kg Dry Matter/ha/day
Projected Pasture Growth at Nimmitabel
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1971-2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Profit
0.8 cows/ha
0.7 cows/ha
0.6 cows/ha
0.6 cows/ha
0.5 cows/ha
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Some other locations and enterprises
Merino’s west of Bombala.
– Self replacing merino flock
– Cocksfoot/Sub with some cork-screw and
annual grasses.
– Fertilised deep loamy soil
Projected rainfall near Bombala
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
1-J
an
15
-Ja
n
29
-Ja
n
12
-Fe
b
26
-Fe
12 b
-M
a
26 r
-M
ar
9-A
pr
23
-Ap
r
7-M
a
21 y
-M
ay
4-J
un
18
-Ju
n
2-J
ul
16
-Ju
l
30
-Ju
l
13
-Au
g
27
-Au
10 g
-Se
p
24
-Se
p
8-O
c
22 t
-O
ct
5-N
ov
19
-N
ov
3-D
e
17 c
-D
ec
Kg Dry Matter/ha/day
Bombala projected pasture Growth
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1971-2000
CCSM 3.0
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
2.1 ewes/ha
1.8 ewes/ha
3.1 ewes/ha
4.3 ewes/ha
4 ewes/ha
Projected profit for merino ewes at Bombala
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Possible impacts without adaptation
• Lower ground cover
• Lower sustainable carrying capacity
• Lower profits/ha.
– BUT
• Not necessarily the case for all
locations and all climate projections?
Possible Adaptations
•
•
•
•
•
•
Drought lots (ground cover management)
Genetic improvements
Grazing management
New species
Enterprise changes
Lambing / calving time
1970 - 2000
CCSM 3.0
2.1 ewes/ha
1.8 ewes/ha
3.1 ewes/ha
4.3 ewes/ha
4 ewes/ha
+ 10% Fleece weight @ -0.5 µm
HadGEM1
ECHAM5-OM
GFDL 2.1
Climate change is truly serious !
National Southern Livestock Adaptation 2030 Partners
Local Cooperators