Transcript IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change - Cap-Net

IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation
to Climate Change
Dealing with uncertainties
Goal and objectives of the session
At the end of this session, participants will be
familiar with the uncertainties involved in:
• Predicting impacts of climate change
• Adapting to the predicted impacts of climate
change.
Uncertainties
One thing is certain:
Nothing is certain
In
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this session:
Uncertainty and climate change
How to deal with uncertainties
Types of uncertainties
Adaptation to climate change under uncertainty:
• Prediction-oriented approaches
• Resilience-oriented approaches.
Climate change
Changes in temperature
and precipitation
characterised by
uncertainties regarding:
•magnitude
•timing
•spatial distribution
As well as uncertainties
with respect to
vulnerabilities.
Feedbacks increasing uncertainties
 Melting of ice/snow > reduced reflection sun’s
radiation > increased heating
 Thawing permafrost > release CO2 and CH4 >
accelerating global warming
 Higher land and ocean temperatures: reduced uptake
of atmospheric CO2.
Uncertainties in environmental management
 Increasingly dealing
with situations
where facts are
uncertain, values in
dispute, stakes
high and decisions
urgent
 Weighing risks is a
political task.
(Ravetz, 2005)
Uncertainties in water management
 Uncertainty, variability and risk most important
consequences of climate change
 Climate change projections inconsistent and/or
inaccurate at regional/local scales
 Stationarity in weather and water systems not
longer reliable basis for planning.
Experience from the past is no longer a reliable
guide for the future.
Challenges in water management
 Improve predictions (temporal/spatial scales
required by water managers)
 Collaboration/communication between climate
and water resources management community
 Adaptive management: adaptive and flexible
approaches to improve coping with uncertain
developments vs finding optimum solutions
> Institutional flexibility and a central role for
stakeholders.
Typology of uncertainties: From ‘knowing
for certain’ to ‘unknown’
Statistical:
• Range with probability, chances, probabilities
• Assuming underlying models are adequate, data representative
Scenario:
• Ranges of possible outcomes: ‘What if?’
Recognized:
• Present, but can not be estimated (chaos, unknown processes)
• No scientific consensus, e.g. accelerated sea level rise, shutdown thermohaline ocean circulation.
Adaptation to CC under uncertainty
Prediction-oriented:
 Characterising, reducing, managing and
communicating uncertainty
 Increasing sophistication of modelling tools and
techniques.
Resilience-oriented:
 Uncertainties can not be reduced
 Learning from the past.
Prediction-oriented approaches
IPCC approach:
 Uncertain information by using CC scenarios as
drivers for impacts from which adaptation
strategies are developed.
Risk approaches:
 Identify, evaluate, select and implement actions
to reduce risks (probability x consequences).
Frameworks for risk approaches
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
(Dessai and van der Sluijs, 2007)
Identify key climatic variables
Create scenarios/ranges for these variables
Sensitivity analysis between CC and impacts
Identify impact thresholds
Carry out risk analysis
Evaluate risk and identify feedbacks
Consult stakeholders, analyse proposed
adaptations, recommend planned adaptation
options
Frameworks for risk approaches
-2- (ten Brinke et al., 2008)
Risk management cycle/safety chain
Pro-action
Eliminating structural causes of accidents and disasters
to prevent them from happening in the first place (e.g.
building restrictions in flood-prone areas)
Prevention
Taking measures beforehand that aim to prevent
accidents and disasters, and limit the consequence in
case such events do occur (e.g. building dykes)
Preparation
Taking measures to ensure sufficient preparation to deal
with accidents and disasters in case they happen (e.g.
contingency planning)
Response
Actually dealing with accidents and disasters (e.g.
response teams)
Recovery
All activities that lead to rapid recovery from the
consequences of accidents and disasters, and ensuring
that all those affected can return to the ‘normal’
situation and recover their equilibrium.
Risk
management
Crisis
management
Frameworks for risk approaches
-3- (PLANAT)
Frameworks for risk approaches
-4- (Sullivan and Meigh, 2005)
Resilience-oriented approaches (Dessai and van der Sluijs, 2007)