Transcript Study on CC Impact in China

Study on CC Impact in China
Lu Xuedu
Ministry of Science and Technology of China
June 18, 2004
UNFCCC SB-20
Bonn, Germany
Outline
I. Methods on CC Impact Study
II. Uncertainties
III. Consideration in further
Methods on CC Impact Study
Methods for assessing climate change impacts can be divided
into two main parts:
1. methods assessing the past impact:
Using the indicative indicators of ecosystems to assess how
the past climate would affect the ecosystems.
2. methods assessing the future impacts:
Four main methods: experiment, modeling with experience
in coupling with bio-physical processing module, analogical
analysis, and expert judgment.
Methods on CC Impact Study
Steps for future impact assessment:
l Identifying the purpose, issues, scopes, areas, and data for
assessment,
l
Selecting the assessment methods,
l
Verifying the methods by using data and survey information,
and sensitive analysis,
l
Establishing
the
climate,
development scenarios,
and
social
and
economic
Methods on CC Impact Study
Steps for future impact assessment (continued):
l
Assessing the impacts of climate change on the bio-physics
and social and development,
l
Assessing the adaptation policies, measures and strategies
in response to the impacts,
l
Analyzing the uncertainties and risks, and
l
Evaluating the effects of the policies, measures and
strategies
Methods on CC Impact Study
l In agricultural sector: PRECIS regional model (50 km×50km)
developed by Hadley and then modified to adapt to China
circumstances, in coupling with improved CERES model. The
models require the data of soil, crop varieties and their
characters, measured productions of crops, and the field
experiments.
l
Forestry and Ecosystem: PRECIS regional model (50
km×50km) developed by Hadley and modified to adapt to China
circumstances,
in
coupling
model(CENTURE, CEVSA).
with
bio-geo-chemical
Methods on CC Impact Study
l Water resources: GCMs model in coupling with VIC model
l For the climate change impact on other sectors, the
assessment methods include: comparison analysis, modeling,
statistics, mechanism modeling, and some others.
Uncertainties
Large uncertainties exist from:
1. methods and models that may amplify the uncertainties;
2. future climate scenarios as inputs of models, leading to
uncertainties of the results of the models,
3. future social and economic development scenarios.
These uncertainties would make policy-makers be more
cautious when formulating and implementing the policies and
measures for addressing the impacts and vulnerability of
climate change.
Uncertainties
Methods to reduce uncertainties:
1. improving the understanding on the process of the
climate change impacts on social, economic and ecological
system;
2. improving models for assessment, including the models
for projection of climate scenarios, and social and economic
development scenarios;
3. developing integrated assessment model. Such model is
still at conceptual stage or early development stage,which will
highly rely on the scientific progress in the interrelationship
between climate and other ecological, social and economic
system, and the clear understanding on the atmospheric
physical process.
Consideration in further
Consideration by SASTA:
1.
To promote the research and development of
the analysis tools and methods, including the
integrated assessment model, in particular at the
regional level, and
2. To promote the application of such tools and
methods for developing countries, so as to obtain
soundly scientific conclusions as a robust basis
for policymaking.
Thank You!
LU Xuedu
Ministry of Science and Technology of China(MOST)
15 B Fuxing Road, Beijing, 100862, China
FAX :86-10-5888-1441
TEL:86-10-5888-1436
Email: [email protected]