Transcript Wesfarmers Federation Insurance Conference

Wesfarmers Federation Insurance National Conference
Growth Through Wisdom Focus Innovation
27 April 2005
Perth
W Australia
Conference Keynote
Future Trends Impacting WFI :
New
Wisdoms
Speaker
Annimac
www.annimac.com.au
“ Everything that has been
standard practice for 5
generations on my family
farm is now wrong. ”
Great Southern WA crop & sheep farmer, age 38
Rate of Change
5 minutes
5 days
every day
-
new technology
new product or service
1 million new web pages
Change we have in one day
Our grandparents had in one year
Younger means faster
Driving all Drivers of Change
Technology
e.g.
by 2020
70 % types of jobs then
do not exist now because
80% technology not yet imagined
Likely jobs in next 10 years :
• Director of Emerging Thought
• Chief Zookeeper - of people
• Chief Farm Technologist
• Creative Undertaker
• Agricultural Biotech Adviser
• Pasture Programmer
• Valuer of Intangible Assets *
• Human Interface Manager *
* 2003
Gap : Haves - Have Nots
now
Technology
•
Access
•
Skilling
50 %
world
not
popn
wealth
no phone
Changing Nature of
Work
Two major trends :

Co opitalism
Cooperative capitalism

Sustainability
Development
harmony
Changing Nature of
Work :
•
Project
•
Relationships
•
One off alliances - consortia
•
Globally
•
Fast flat
•
Values
•
Asia
based
Team
based
networked
skilled decision
driven
markets
making
Quad Bottom Line
Emerging values for Business
intergenerational equity
leaving our planet to future generations in as good
as or better state than it is today
sustainable development
human development ( financial economic and social )
in harmony with the natural environment
eco-footprinting
the assessment of our current usage and 'fair share'
of global resources
Farmer’s paddock
Williams
Albany Hwy
WA
March 03
Changing Nature of
Employment :
Two major trends :
•
Casualisation
•
Values driven
Changing
Nature of
Employment :
•
Contract
•
Part time
•
Skill based
•
Employee
•
Values driven not money
• personal
people
planet
•
Global
based
:
Projects
Multi skilling
benefits
sourcing
negotiated
Aus Small Business Trends
ABS
1996 - 2001
Number of small biz in Aus
1,505,924
Income increase over 5 yrs
including wages
profit up by
18.6 %
29.9 %
13.4 %
Number in capital cities
945, 320
only Hobart decreasing
Number outside capital cities
decreasing by
611,476
1%
Small biz
Highest 5 yr growth outside capital cities :
SW Queensland
Kimberley WA
Outer Adelaide
Central W Queensland
42.4 %
41.7 %
37.4 %
31.2 %
Decline in total income in 4 Regions :
Midlands WA
South Eastern WA
Upper Great Southern WA
Northern Sth Australia
-
1.1 %
3.9 %
8.8%
4.8 %
Average income grew in all regions
ABS Estimates:
Ave Annual Growth in Total Income of Small
Businesses 1996 to 2001
Trends in farm income :
Future growth trends - small biz
startup :
Domestic services - “ Do it for me ”
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
home cleaning, maintenance and gardening
healthy prepared meals and home catering
shopping and delivery services
home security systems and patrol services
household waste disposal and recycling
car care
pool cleaning
pet care
Start-ups
Community services
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
travel & tourism
special interest education – leisure & learning
investment & retirement planning
sports & recreation
tailored accommodation facilities
home & health care
preventative health & alternative therapies
mobility & companionship services
Start-ups
Health & lifestyle
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
alternative therapies
stress management, relaxation & meditation
personal counselling & self awareness
parenting skills & techniques
public speaking & social etiquette
career & skills development
image consulting
personal security, self-defence & devices
Start-ups
Business services
•
•
•
•
•
•
computer consultancy services
employment placement & staff contracting
accounting & business advisory services
serviced offices & secretarial support
business planning & information services
marketing & public relations
Start-ups
Tourism & Recreation
•
•
•
•
•
•
ecotourism & nature based tours
heritage & nostalgia tours
backpacker tourism
farm-stays
special events e.g. country show days
concert & sporting events
Major growth :
On line
e-business
Trends in Rural Australia
• Farming communities downsizing
• Family farms corporatising
• Urban
encroachment
• Ageing farm population
• Succession issues : youth issues
• Women as farm biz managers
• Slow uptake of technology
• Slow uptake new knowledge
Trends of Climate Change
• Forecasters disagree long term
• Global warming impacting
• Some changes inevitable
• Aus second most arid continent
• Aus climate highly vulnerable
Trends of Climate Change : Aus
Aus climate cyclical - shorter
Aus ecosystems vulnerable to change :
• hi
risk : coral reefs
alpine
tropical forests
mangrove wetlands
deserts
savannahs
natural grasslands
Global warming impacting Aus :
•
increasing carbon dioxide
•
changing temperatures : hi certainty
•
changing rainfall : mod certainty
Likely impact of climate change
•
CO2
to 455 ppm :
2030
mostly good
•  plant growth & water efficiency
•
Temperature warming :
•
Rainfall change : mostly not good
2° to 4° C
•  southwest :
-20% to +5%
•  southeast, Qld :
-10% to +5%
•  inland :
summer or autumn
Some Specific Impacts
Wheat :
•
•
•
faster growth
less grain filling
high yield
lower grain protein
not bread making or pasta grain
Fruit :
•
•
•
esp
apples
stone fruits
southern Aus
less frost damage
less chilling
less bud burst
lower fruit set
lower yield
reduced quality
Rainfall change %
0%
- 20%
Yield
response %
20%
Temperature increase
°C
Changing rainfall & temperature impact on
wheat production in Australia
CSIRO 2001
High rainfall Pastures :
•
•
NSW Vic : CO2 & warming cancel out
sthn Aus less winter spring rain
• less plant production
• less animal production
• higher temp : dairy cows less milk
Rangelands : delicate diversity threatened
• sthn Aus 10% less winter spring rain
• less forage
less animal production
• nthn Aus more summer rain
CO2
• more forage
poorer quality
• nthn sub / tropics move south
• natural vegetation unable to adapt
Growth in forests :
if
CO2 doubles with 3°C temp increase
> 50%
-25
to
-50%
25
to
50%
-50
to
-25%
0
to
25%
< -50%
No growth
Shifting
Global Values
Gap widening
:
Knowledge
•
Haves / have nots
•
Age generations
•
Globally networked
Gap : Haves - Have Nots
now
Technology
•
Access
•
Skilling
50 %
world
not
popn
wealth
no phone
Australian Population Pyramid
Aus Govt 2001
Gap : Age Generations
Four generations :
Three worlds
• Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs
Materialism
• economic rationalists : profit
• material values : tangibles
• science as religion : rational
•
Generation X
30 – 45 yrs
• clones of Boomers : materialists
• copy younger : sustainability
or
Gap : Age Generations
Four generations :
Three worlds
• DotComs 15 - 30 yrs
Sustainability
• global identity
• co opitalism
• relationships
• holistic win - win – win
•
Cluetrain Manifesto
“ The marketplace is a conversation ”
www.cluetrainmanifesto.com
Chinese Technology Centre
Gap : Age Generations
Four generations :
• Ferals
.
.
.
.
.
.
Three worlds
0 – 15 yrs
no limits
no boundaries
parallel universes 
quantum everything
invent their world
beyond our imagining
. Indigo children
Virtual
Gap : Globally Networked
Those globally networked :
•
access all knowledge
•
empowered
•
confident
•
passionately committed
•
global view future
•
one planet
:
one future
Summary Impact for WFI
•
transiting two worlds - accelerating
•
values shift to sustainability
•
cooperation not
•
climate change impacting agribiz
•
rural Aus rapid demographic shifts
•
young non negotiators
•
relationships : consumers
partners
innovators
QBL
competition
Two greatest challenges facing WFI
Changing nature of agribiz
• facilitating client change
• risk management during change
Changing nature of clients
• understanding immense differences
• responding to - not imposing upon
Thank you
www.annimac.com.au