Transcript insights on disaster resilience from 2008`s disasters and disaster

INSIGHTS ON DISASTER
RESILIENCE
FROM
2008’S DISASTERS AND
DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIOS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
SEVEN TYPES OF NOTABLE
DISASTERS
AND
THE CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS
2008
NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2008
CYCLONE NARGIS
NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR
COMMUNITY DISASTER
RESILIENCE
WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE
FLOODING IN MIDWESTERN
USA
CATALYSTS
FOR CHANGE
TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES
WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA
ERUPTION OF VOLCANO
CHAITEN
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
MAIN IDEA
Each disaster provides deeper insights
on: 1) Protection, 2) Preparedness, 3)
Early Warning, 4) Emergency Response,
and 5) Recovery and Reconstruction
GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE
FLOODS
IMPROVE ON PAST
PERFORMANCE
INCREASED TECHNICAL
AND POLITICL CAPACITY
OF COMMUNITY TO COPE
INCREASED OWNERSHIP
AND USE OF KNOWLEDGE
AND EXPERIENCE
SEVERE WIND STORMS
EARTHQUAKES
DROUGHTS
LANDSLIDES
WILDFIRES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
TERRORISM
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
YOUR
GOAL: DISASTER
RESILIENCE
COMMUNITY
FIVE PILLARS OF
RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PROTECTION
•PEPAREDNESS
•EARLY WARNING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT.
QUICK REVIEWS
SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF
DISASTERS DURING 2008
• CYCLONE NARGIS, MYANMAR
(BURMA), MAY 2-3
PATH OF CYCLONE NARGIS:
WARNING IGNORED: MAY 2-3, 2008
CYCLONE NARGIS:
• People unprepared.
• The storm's 120 mph winds
blew roofs off hospitals,
downed trees, and cut
electricity to the country's
largest city, Rangon.
• Torrential rain caused local
flooding.
•Myanmar’s policies of selfsufficiency delayed entry of
food and materials from all but
a few countries, and usually
without the skilled disaster
workers.
MAIN INSIGHTS FROM
CYCLONE NARGIS
• WHEN YOU HAVE EARLY WARNING,
USE IT TO EVACUATE THE PEOPLE IN
HARM’S WAY
• MORE LIVES ARE SAVED AND
RECOVERY IS ACCELERATED WHEN
YOU ARE PREPARED TO ACCEPT
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF
DISASTERS DURING 2008
• VOLCANO CHAITEN (CHILE),
MAY 3
AFTER 10,000 YEAR DORMANCY,
CHAITEN ERUPTS IN CHILE
CHAITEN‘S ERUPTION
CHANGED THE STATUS QUO
•PRESIDENT DECLARES STATE
OF EMERGENCY
•1500 EVACUATED
•DRINKING WATER
CONTAMINATED
CHAITEN CAUSES SEA
EVACUATIONS
MAIN INSIGHTS FROM
VOLCANO CHAITEN
• EVACUATE THE PEOPLE IN HARM’S
WAY WHEN YOU HAVE RELIABLE
EARLY WARNING
• DON’T BECOME UN-PREPARED JUST
BECAUSE NO ERUPTIONS HAVE
HAPPENED FOR A LONG TIME, EVEN
IF THE VOLCANO IS NOT IN YOUR
COUNTRY
SEVEN NOTABLE DISASTERS
DURING 2008
• WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE; MAY 12
WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE
• 88,000 DEAD
• 25 MILLIONS HOMES DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED
• NO MODERN BUILDING CODE
45,690,000 people
were affected by the
disaster.
MAIN INSIGHTS FROM
WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE
• BUILDINGS COLLAPSE,
INFRASTRUCTURE LOSES FUNCTION,
LIVES ARE LOST, AND MONEY IS
WASTED WHEN BUILDINGS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE ARE NOT
PROTECTED BY MODERN BUILDING
CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS.
SEVEN TYPES OF NOTABLE
DISASTERS DURING 2008
• FLOODING IN MIDWEST USA,
JUNE 5-16
AFFECTED MIDWESTERN
STATES: JUNE 2008
Thousands Evacuated and
Hundreds of Thousands
Affected
Few Deaths, but Losses Reach
Billions
5-16 June 2008
FLOODED CORNFIELDS IN
DECATUR, ILLINOIS; JUNE 5TH
ILLINOIS' LEVEE BREAKS:
JUNE 10TH
SAND BAGS: CEDAR FALLS,
IOWA; JUNE 11TH
UNUSUAL FLOODING IN IOWA:
A “500 YEAR FLOOD”
SITUATION DEVELOPED AS
NINE IOWA RIVERS REACHED
OR APPROACHED HISTORIC
LEVELS.
FLOODING: CEDAR RAPIDS,
IOWA; JUNE 12TH
MAIN INSIGHTS FROM USA’S
FLOODS
• MONITORING, EARLY WARNING,
EVACUATION, AND WETLANDS,
SANDBAGS, LEVEES, AND DAMS ARE
VITAL FOR SAVING LIVES AND
PROTECTING PROPERTY.
• BEING PREPARED INCLUDES
CONSIDERATION OF POSSIBLE
WATER-BORNE DISEASES
SEVEN TYPES OF NOTABLE
DISASTERS DURING 2008
• 16 SEVERE WINDSTORMS IN
ATLANTIC BASIN; 2008 SEASON
MAIN INSIGHTS FROM 2008’S
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
• EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION
TO MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S
WAY ARE VITAL FOR SAVING LIVES
• WIND ENGINEERING PROTECTS
PROPERTY
• INSURANCE SPREADS RISK
SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF
DISASTERS
• CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES, JULY
t
MAIN INSIGHTS FROM
CALIFORNIA’S WILDFIRES
• EARLY WARNING PROVIDES TIME TO
EVACUATE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE IN
HARM’S WAY
• POST-WILDFIRES SLOPES ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MUDFLOWS
• REGIONAL COOPERATION SPEEDS
RESPONSE AND RECOVERY
SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF
DISASTERS
• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,
ONGOING
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: A
DEVELOPING ISSUE
• Small European
glaciers are melting.
• Larger glaciers,
Greenland, and
Antarctica are also
melting, but much
slower.
• Average global
temperature is
rising.
• Sea level is rising.
MAIN INSIGHTS FROM
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
• LONG-TERM MONITORING IS VITAL
FOR UNDERSTANDING WHAT IS
HAPPENING OVER TIME,AND WHY
• UNDERSTANDING IS THE KEY TO
REALISTIC ADAPTATION TO THE
CHANGES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TECHNOLOGIES AND POLICIES
CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE
SHAKEOUT SCENARIOS
NOVEMBER 2008
ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT
CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE
INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR
Source: US Geological Survey
THE GOAL: Identify the physical,
social and economic consequences of major earthquakes in
California, so that end users can
identify what they can change
now—before the earthquake —to
avoid catastrophic impacts after
the earthquake.
• The Bay Area straddles the
boundary between the North
American and Pacific tectonic plates.
• Much of the stress release is on the
San Andreas fault, but some of it is
relieved by the Hayward fault and
other smaller parallel faults.
• A Hayward fault earthquake is likely to
be one of the nation's biggest natural
disasters.
• A Hayward fault quake damages
homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals,
businesses and the campus of UC
Berkeley and impacts 7 million people.
• A M7.0 earthquake on the
Hayward fault will cause an
estimated $210 billion dollars in
damage.
• The region's transportation
infrastructure and water delivery
systems will likely lose some or all
of their function for days to weeks.
• The M7.8 ShakeOut earthquake
will cause about 1800 deaths and
$213 billion losses.
• These numbers are as low as
they are because of aggressive
retrofitting programs for
buildings and lifelines.
• The estimates of about 1800
deaths and $213 billion of
economic losses are as large
as they are because much
more retrofitting can still be
done.
MAIN INSIGHTS FROM THE
CA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS
• DISASTER PLANNING IS INCOMPLETE
WITHOUT REALISTIC INTEGRATION
OF THE PAST WITH THE PRESENT