Transcript Presentation from Professor Bill McGuire

CLIMATE CHANGE
….where are we now?
….where are we going?
….are we too late?
Bill McGuire
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
How others see us!
“Sometimes you see beautiful
people with no brains. Sometimes
you have ugly people who are
intelligent…..like scientists”
José Mourinho. Chelsea FC Manager
BBC Online. February 20th 2005
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Climate change…its no joke!
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Content
• Leading questions and
key points
• Stern & IPCC AR4
• Where are we now?
–
–
–
–
CO2 levels
Temperatures
The Poles
Emissions
• Where are we going?
• How bad can things get?
• What do we need to do?
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Some leading questions
• Asked to address two
pertinent questions
• Why do all companies
need to develop a
sustainable carbon
policy?
• Where will the carbon
emission debate go
next?
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Q1: some straightforward answers
• We are in real trouble
• Industry and commerce as a
whole MUST develop a
sustainable carbon policy
– To contribute to effective
emissions cuts
– To avoid climate catastrophe
• Individual companies
– Need to be seen to be acting
responsibly as climate change
dominates agenda
– Ultimately to prosper or even
survive in an inevitably more
chaotic and unstable social &
economic environment
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Q2: some straightforward answers
• Greenhouse gas
emissions are still on the
rise
• Kyoto commitments end
in 2012
• Prospects for a follow-up
that has clout remain
bleak
• Next key meeting: Bali,
December 2007
• More on emissions trends
later
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Some key points
• Climate change is real
• It is not going to go away
• It is caused by human
activities
• Things are going to get
bad
• The longer we leave
things & less we do, the
worse it will be
• Global emissions are
accelerating
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Greenhouse Earth
• Three factors influence
Greenhouse Effect
– Solar influx
– Albedo
– Atmospheric composition
• Only one has changed
significantly over last
300 years
Relative proportions of Greenhouse gases
–
–
–
–
Carbon dioxide up 36%
Methane up 150%
Nitrous oxide up 17%
Tropospheric ozone up
35%
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Stern & IPCC AR4
• Scary but not enough!
• STERN: CC could result
in 20% contraction of
global economy
• IPCC: Warming of climate
is ‘unequivocal’
– Expected warming for 550
ppm → 2 – 4.5C
– Values substantially higher
cannot be excluded
• Consensus; conservative
– political interference
– feedbacks/catastrophic
scenarios not addressed
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Where are we now? CO2 levels
• Carbon dioxide levels
– 1663 279ppm
– 1970 325ppm
– 2006 383ppm
• Sharp jump in last 5
years
• Rate double that of 30y
ago
• Highest for 650,000 y;
may be higher than for 30
million years
• Keeps Venus at snug
483º C
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Where are we now? Temperature
19 of the hottest years on record
occurred in last 25 years
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
The global picture
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Where are we now? The poles
• Greenland ice melt
– 1996 96 km3
– 2005 240 km3
• Glaciers moving up to 15 km y;
some surging up to 5 km in 90
minutes
• Break-up in ≤ 300 years
• IPCC AR4 18-59cm sea-level
rise by 2100
• Growing consensus rise will be
far more rapid
• Total rise
– Greenland 7 m
– + WAIS  12 m
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Where are we now? Emissions
• Kyoto Protocol
– Reduce emissions by 5.2%
below 1990 levels
– 172 countries
– US not signatory
– China & India not required to
reduce
• Between 2000 and 2005
emissions rose 4 x faster than
in previous decade
• China now largest emitter of
greenhouse gases
• UK committed to 12.5% cut
(below 1990) by 2012
– Emissions up for last 3y
European heat-wave 2003
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Where are we going? CO2 levels
Greenland Summer melt
• Main target to keep levels
below that which will
trigger 2° C rise
• Dangerous climate
change
• May be as low as 450
ppm
• At current rates will reach
this within 25 y
• Taking into account other
GHGs may be within 7 y
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Where are we going? Temperature
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Where are we going? The Poles
• 60 cm rise would drown
26,000 km2 of US
– Florida; Gulf Coast; Maryland;
Virginia
• 1 m rise would threaten ~ 1
billion people and 1/3 of
world’s agricultural land
– Thames Barrier ineffective
• 1.5 m rise would inundate
58,000 km2 of US
• 7 m + rise would flood all
coastal urban centres: London,
New York, Tokyo, Sydney,
Shanghai
• IPCC 2007: 50 percent
probability that widespread ice
sheet loss can not be avoided
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Where are we going? Emissions
• Business as usual
– By 2030 energy emissions
grow by 40 – 110 percent
– 2/3 to 3/4 contribution from
developing countries
• UK Gov target
– Up to 30% cut by 2020
– Reality: 12 – 17%
• Targets of EU and others
likely to be similarly
optimistic
• Problem: balancing
economic growth with
climate change mitigation
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
What do we need to do?
• To stabilise GHG levels
at 445 – 490 ppm (CO2
equiv)
– 50 to 80 % cut in global
emissions by 2050 (maybe
more)
– Emissions would need to
peak before 2015
– Would still result in 2 – 2.4°
C T rise
• Still insufficient to prevent
dangerous climate
change
• Seven years to save the
planet
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
How bad can things get?
• If all conventional
hydrocarbons burnt → average
7º C temperature rise
• If unconventional sources (tar
sands; clathrates) included →
13º C
• Plants and soils hold twice as
much carbon dioxide as the
atmosphere.
• With increased warming some
sinks may become sources
• Other sources include
methane from permafrost
• Most Arctic permafrost will
have disappeared by next
century
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
Contraction & Convergence:
a last hope?
• Post-Kyoto agreement critical
• Must bind US, China and India
to mandatory targets
• Last chance?
– Emissions trading has a role
to play
– Only within C & C framework
– Everyone has right to emit the
same quantity of GHG
– US citizen emits 5 tonnes of
CO2 a year; a Nigerian emits
0.09 t
– Within C & C emissions
contract overall and converge
to a standard level
• Aim: GHG stabilisation at 450
ppm in 2100
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007
….and finally: the Earth fights back
• Prospect of increasing volcanic
eruptions, earthquakes,
submarine landslides and
tsunamis
• Inaction on climate change not
an option
– Huge vested interest for all
companies to play their part
– The ultimate in CSR
– Alternative trying to operate
against a background of
crumbling economy, fraying
social fabric and a rapidly
deteriorating environment
• Economic growth OR tackling
climate change is not a viable
choice
The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential
©Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre 2007