Transcript New Zealand`s Climate Change Policies: Past and Future Malcolm

New Zealand's Climate Change
Policies: Past and Future
Malcolm Harbrow
[email protected]
What am I doing here?
• Studying Climate Change Policy for an M.
Phil
• Analyse the challenges faced by NZ in
meeting its Kyoto targets
• Examine NZ’s climate change policies,
with a particular focus on recent events
• Assess effectiveness of new polices in
meeting Kyoto goals, and compare them
with discarded ones.
New Zealand's climate change
problem
• Kyoto obliges us to cut emissions to 1990
levels over CP1 (2008 - 2012)
• But emissions keep rising:
Sources of emissions:
“Energy” can be further subdivided
into Transport (19.2%) and
Electricity (9.6%)
So its clear what the problem is…
1994 Policy
• Goal: stabilise net CO2 emissions at 1990 levels
by 2000
• 20% of meeting target would be met by
emissions reductions from:
– Voluntary agreements
– Electricity reform
– Energy efficiency
• 80% would be met from forestry
• If targets were not met by mid 1997, a carbon
tax would be imposed.
1996 Working Group on CO2
Policy
• Looked at long-term options
• Conclusions:
• Regulations don’t work:
"specific subsidies or regulatory interventions
will not, in general, provide a least-cost or
durable response to reducing Co2 emissions“
• Instead, backed an economic instrument
1999 Domestic Policy Options
Statement
• Looked at options for implementing emissions
trading regime
• “Following a business-as-usual 'emissions path'
prior to 2008 is not a least cost approach to
meeting our commitments.”
• Proposed three possible interim measures to
bridge the gap until ETS introduced:
– forward market
– pilot trading and carbon charge
– carbon charge
2002 package
• Goal: to set emissions on a permanent
downward path by 2012
• Carbon tax capped at $25/T
• Exemption of agricultural emissions
• Negotiated Greenhouse Agreements for
"at-risk" industries
• Projects mechanism
• Government maintaining liability for
forests, up to a “deforestation cap” of 10%.
Constant features
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“Least cost” solution
Reliance on forestry
Hostility to regulatory measures
Preference for economic instruments
Reluctance to actually implement
2005: The Review
• May 2005: projected balance of units
changed from 55 MTCO2e surplus to 34.6
MTCO2e deficit (now 41.2 MTCO2e deficit)
• June 2005: Review of climate change
policies initiated
• September 2005: an election
• December 2005: Carbon tax scrapped
2006
• No goal, no policy
• Hints of some policies eventually:
– A renewables target?
– A carbon tax only on large emitters?
– Energy efficiency standards for cars?
– Biofuels?
– Carbon credit devolution?
Comparing policies
• Difficult, as they are still being announced
• Review and political reality has effectively
ended any hope of an economic
instrument
• This has helped overcome reluctance to
regulate
• New policies almost certain to be less
effective than old ones.