Transcript Kenya`s INDC Actions in the Forestry Sector

Kenya’s INDC:
Actions in the Forestry Sector
INDC Sector Meeting
Forestry Sector
6th May 2016
StARCK+ Technical Assistance Component
Kenya’s INDC
 Mitigation - 30% emissions reductions by 2030
from BAU scenario.
Based on Kenya’s NCCAP
 Adaptation - enhanced resilience to climate
change towards the attainment of Vision 2030.
Based on Kenya’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP)
 Subject to international support in the form of
finance, investment, technology development and
transfer, and capacity building.
Mitigation Contribution
The Second National Communication determined that Kenya’s
projected emissions for 2030 are 143 MTCO2e. Kenya has
potential to reduce projected emissions by 86 MTCO2e. The INDC
mitigation target is half this potential or 43 MTCO2e.
GHG Emissions MTCO2e
160
140
Waste
120
Industrial Processes
100
Agriculture
Transportation
80
Energy Demand
60
Electricity Generation
40
Forestry
20
0
1995
Low Carbon Pathway
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Composite abatement potential for all sectors for Kenya (technical potential) in MTCO 2eq
Source: Government of Kenya (2015), Second National Communication, page 172.
Mitigation Contribution
The
Overview
 Mitigation




Baseline Emission Projections
INDC Target for the Forestry Sector
Mitigation Options in the SNC
Key Mitigation Options
 Adaptation
 Discussion Questions
LULUCF
 The LULUCF Sector includes estimates of emissions and
removals of greenhouse gases associated with increases
or decreases of carbon in living biomass as land-use
changes occur over time, for example, in the conversion of a
forest area to cropland, or when establishing new forest
lands through reforestation or afforestation
 Modelling of LULUCF Sector used a State and Transition
Simulation model called ST-Sim
 IPCC Guidelines applied to include above-ground
biomass, below-ground biomass, soil organic matter
and the atmosphere.
Baseline Emissions Projection
•
•
•
The forestry sector is a
significant emitter of
greenhouse gases.
Key sources of GHG
emissions include
• deforestation
• forest degradation
Approximately 55,000
hectares of woodlands
and bushlands is
converted to other land
uses each year through
activities such as
• Forest clearing for
agriculture
• Illegal logging
• Unsustainable
charcoal production
Decomposition of organic
waste produces methane
30
25
GHG Emissions MtCO2e
•
20
15
LULUCF
10
5
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Breakdown of LULUCF Baseline GHG
Net Emissions (MtCO2e)
LULUCF SubSector
Forest Land
LULUCF Baseline GHG Net Emissions (MtCO2e)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
14.1
14.1
19.7
19.7
20.2
17.8
18.9
Cropland
4.6
3.4
4.6
6.0
4.5
4.4
2.9
Grassland
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Wetlands
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Settlements
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
19.1
17.8
24.4
26.0
24.9
22.6
22.1
TOTAL
Assumptions
Emission /
Removal
Category
Conversion of
Forest Land to
Farm lands
Conversion of
Settlement to
Farm lands
Conversion of
Plantation to
Farmlands
Metric
Assumption
Notes
Ha converted per
year between 1990
and 2010
Ha converted per
year between 1990
and 2010
Ha converted per
year between 1990
and 2010
Reduced by 50%
between 2010 and
2030
Reduction to zero
Increased protection and forest management under the Forest
Management Act? is expected to reduce the rate of deforestation.
A 50% reduction is projected from existing measures in place.
No settlement land is expected to be converted to farmlands
between 2010 and 2030.
Trend in historical data between 2010 and 2013 indicates an
increase in the size of plantations of approximately 3,000 ha per
year.
Woodfuel
Removal
Tonnes of wood
(dm)
Loss of 300
hectatres per year
(1990 to 2010) to
Increase of ~3,000
ha per year
+0.84% increase
per year
Charcoal
Production
Tonnes of charcoal
Commercial
harvest
Tonnes of wood
(dm)
Forest Fire
Area of Forest
Land burned (ha)
Woodfuel supply is constrained in some markets and future
demand is based on an Analysis of Demand and Supply of Wood
Products in Kenya. (Ministry of Environment and Natural
Resources, 2013).
+1.3% increase per Charcoal supply is constrained in some markets and future
year
demand is based on an Analysis of Demand and Supply of Wood
Products in Kenya. (Ministry of Environment and Natural
Resources, 2013).
1.9% increase per
Projections of commercial harvest (Poles and posts, paper and
year
paper board and industrial wood) are based on an Analysis of
Demand and Supply of Wood Products in Kenya. (Ministry of
Environment and Natural Resources, 2013) and Kenya Forestry
Assessment Report (Mbugua, D., 2006)
unchanged
Historical forest fire activity is highly variable, but the average was
9,000 ha per year between 1980 and 2011. While impacts of
climate change may affect the frequency of forest fires there is no
available information to indicate a new trend between 2010 and
2030.
Baseline Emissions Projection
 Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
emissions currently account for approximately 33% of
total national emissions.
 Contribution to decrease to 16% by 2030 as the rate of
current deforestation in the baseline is projected to
slow down due to existing government actions.
Decline from 26 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide
equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2015 to 22 MtCO2e in 2030
Comparison of 2030 Baseline Emissions and
INDC Target Emission Reductions (MtCO2e)


Identifies a reasonable
2030 target for emission
reductions in the forestry
sector and bounds this
target with a low and high
range that could be
reasonably expected to
achieve the overall 30%
INDC emission reduction
target.
Illustrates a target emission
reduction of 20.1 MtCO2e
for the LULUCF sector.
This is equivalent to a 91%
reduction in 2030 baseline
energy emissions.
The target is so high
because of the unique
position of the sector to
create net sinks of carbon.
30
Reductions Relative to Baseline (MtCO2e)

25
24.1
20
22.1
15
20.1
12.1
91%
55%
109%
Target Emission
Reductions
Low Range of
Emission
Reductions
High Range of
Emission
Reductions
10
5
0
Baseline
Emissions
Mitigation Options in the SNC
Forestry
Reducing Deforestation and Forest Degradation
Reforestation of Degraded Forests
Restoration of Forests on Degraded Lands
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Technical Potential Emission Reductions in 2030 (MtCO2e)
• Total potential emission reduction: 40.2 MtCO2 per year by 2030
• INDC target is 50% of the potential
Mitigation Options in the SNC
 Based on the SNC analysis and the 20.1 MtCO2e
INDC target for emission reductions in 2030 (see
previous slide):
 the restoration of forests on degraded lands is the
mitigation option with the greatest potential.
 Complemented by actions that seek to limit or reduce
deforestation and forest degradation (e.g., protection
and conservation actions including limiting or prohibiting
access to forests, community management programmes
and preventing disturbances through enforcement and
monitoring
 Restoration of degraded forests
 Agro-forestry (tackled under the agricultural sector)
Mitigation Technologies in the
SNC
Sector
LULUCF
Mitigation Option
Reducing
deforestation and
forest degradation
Key Technologies Required
National Forest inventory, public awareness
campaigns, extension services, pilot projects, MRV
programmes, supporting policy programmes for
regulatory mandate of national forest cover target
Reforestation of
Tree nurseries and production of tree seedlings,
degraded forests
pilot projects, MRV programmes, research into
appropriate tree species selection, site preparation,
planting and tending of saplings.
Restoration of forests
Pilot projects, extension services, MRV
on degraded lands
programmes, research into degraded lands and
appropriate conservation techniques, protection
from animal grazing, wood harvesting and wildfires,
community management programmes, forest
protection enforcement.
Adaptation
 Kenya’s INDC emphasizes adaptation and
identified priority actions drawing on the National
Adaptation Plan 2105-2030 (NAP).
 Adaptation guiding principle is the mainstreaming
of climate change into sectoral planning
 The overall sector’s aim of increasing forest
cover to 10% of land area will have strong
adaptation benefits and help to increase climate
resilience
 Efforts to maintain and increase forest cover
could help to offset anticipated climate induced
changes in biomass availability for energy needs
Adaptation
 Forests also act as water catchments, which are
critical for sustaining water availability for various
uses (hydro-electric power generation,
agriculture, industrial and domestic consumption,
etc)
 Forest cover can also help abate flooding and
landslides, which are climate-related hazards in
Kenya
Priority Adaptation Actions in
the Forestry Sector
Short Term Sub-actions
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Long Term Sub-Actions
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
Improve public outreach on environmental issues.
Enhance participatory scenario planning with
communities.
Undertake climate vulnerability and risk assessments on
ecosystems and provide guidance on relevant
adaptation actions.
Develop a forestry adaptation strategy.
Strengthen tree-planting and conservation initiatives.
Provide guidance and improve access to climate
resilient tree species and cultivars.
Integrate ecosystem and community based approaches
in sector strategies in support of adaptation to reduce
natural resource based conflicts.
Continue the rehabilitation of water catchment areas in
order to provide sustainable ecosystem services.
Discussion
 Does the INDC analysis reflect the current action and
planning in the energy sector?
 Does the BAU scenario closely represent reality as of
now or is some adjustment necessary?
 How does the energy sector plan to reach the INDC
target?
 What are the barriers and opportunities to deeper
emission reductions in the energy sector?
 How does the energy engage with and create
ownership of actions with stakeholders, other
government departments and county governments?