Transcript 4 - CCWAsia2013

Part II. IRIACC Study
VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO
FLOODS & OTHER CLIMATE-RELATED
RISKS AMONG MARGINAL
COMMUNITIES IN METRO MANILA
Emma Porio, PhD
Professor of Sociology and Chairperson, Department of Sociology and
Anthropology, Ateneo de Manila University and Research Fellow, Manila
Observatory. Presented in Understanding Vulnerability Session, Adapting to
Climate Change and Water Security in Asia, June 18-20, 2013, Kathmandu, Nepal
Climate impacts: a compound effect combining direct impacts, indirect impacts and pre-existing
vulnerabilities.(Source: Jo da Silva, Sam Kernaghan & Andrés Luque, 2012)
Challenges: Vulnerability, Adaptation
and Resilience of Asian Cities: MManila
• Rapid Urban Growth, Poverty and Inequality in MM
• Land subsidence, Intense rainfalls/typhoons, SLR/storm
surges, floods, drought/food insecurity
• Urban policies/investments (land use, housing, services)
and governance frameworks not well coordinated
Gov’t: climate proofing of systems still need to
integrate CCA and DRRM approaches and increase
people’s/communities’ capacity to adapt
• Risks and vulnerability uncertainties risk communication
& increasing public awareness/adaptation
Approach: Vulnerability, Adaptation
and Resilience in Metro Manila
•Bio-physical-ecological vulnerabilities* intersect with
•Social-Pol-EcoVulnerabilities(including
governance)*(levels:meso-macro):
Rapid
urban
growth, poverty and inequality
interact with
•Social-Pol-Eco.Vulnerabilities*(household,
family-community levels):socio-economic status
(income, occupation, education, gender, health)
*Horizontal/vertical interactions (e.g. DALY for
health with poverty/gini index by pol-adm unit)
Understanding Vulnerability,
Adaptation Resilience in Metro Manila
• Analytical Approaches: assessing and characterizing
vulnerability (flood):
• Overall
flood
vulnerability
(Bio-physicalSocial):Systems Dynamics Analysis/Simulator Model
• Interactions/Intersections of Sectors: Multiple
Drivers/ScalesMultivariate
analysis
(e.g.,
sampling frames informed by the bio-physical and
governance
drivers
factorial
ecological
analysis/principal component analysis for social
variables)
Analytical Frameworks/ Methodologies
• Data Sources: Primary and Secondary (Q & Q)
• Primary Data Collection Methods: Household
Surveys (Vulnerable Population; CommercialIndustrial), Focus group discussions (FGDs) and Key
Informant Interviews (Officials, leaders of industry,
community, civil society)
• Sampling frame: coastal/lake/headwaters alluvial
• Analytical Frames: 1) Dynamic Simulator Modeling,
climate modeling 2) multivariate analysis (e.g.
factorial ecology analysis/principal component
analysis, economic modeling, health/DALY)
Metro Manila: Governance, DRRM and Climate
Change Adaptation
Sources of Risk/Exposure:
•Population: 12 M; daytime: 1618M people
•Poverty Incidence: 20-30 percent
•Percentage of population living in
informal settlements/no security of
tenure: 40-50 percent
•National capital—below sea level
•Located in 3 flood basins
•Density: 18,000 per sq.km (M40k).
•Urban-Economic Primacy—
pop.12x the next largest city;
accounts 37 % of national GDP
•Earthquake fault runs through the
metropolis (cf. Loyzaga’s slides)
•Governance (decentralized and
democratized): MMDA (16 cities)
and local government units (17
political wills—cf. Alcazaren 2013)
Metro Manila: Bay, Flood Basins,Rivers, Lake
Research Sites: 15 Urban Poor Communities in Three Flood Basins
Governance: DRRM and Climate
Change Adaptation
• Governance: No political will → not true
→ there is strong political in 17 cities &
municipalities  the 17 political wills
drive Metro Manila governance (cf.
Alcazaren (2013)
• Illustrative Case: MMDA/Nat. Gov’t:
Flood Control Program Failed for
 Local Governments: Installed “Bombastik”
or Flood Pumps (later slide)
Map Showing Tidal Gates and Pump Stations (Bombastik)
in the CAMANAVA Area
Source: Corpuz, A. (2010)
Continuous increase in
population and density
Mega Manila Region: Population Density, Urban Primacy,
and Climate Change
Pampanga
Pampanga
Bulacan
Bulacan
Rizal
Rizal
Metro
Manila
Metro
Manila
Cavite
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Laguna
Batangas
1980
2007
Figure 1 Urban and Rural Population Growth
PHILIPPINES: 1950-2050
140
90
130
80
120
110
70
60
90
80
50
70
40
60
50
30
40
20
30
20
10
10
0
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
Urban population
Rural Population
% Urban
Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision
2040
2050
Percent
Population (in millions)
100
Famous
Architect’s
Metro Manila:
1912-2012 .
Paulo Alcazaren
(2012)
Major Urban Centers in the Philippines
..
.
Source: Corpus, 2007.
Vulnerability, Adaptation, Resilience and
the Urban Divide in Metro Manila
•Economic Divide
•Spatial Divide
•Opportunity Divide
•Social Divide
Urban Growth, Poverty and Social
Inequality in the Philippine Cities
.
.
.
Urbanization,
Governance & Household Vulnerability
• The informal city: 500,000 informal settler families
or 3.5 million (105,000-HUDCC); 60 percent no
security of tenure, inadequate access to basic
services)
• Solid Waste: 8,500 tons daily (1/4 of the 35,000
produced by the country; 41,014 persons per sq.
kilometer in Manila (Alcazaren (2012)
• Transport/Traffic congestion: Vehicles: 2 million
(about one-third of nation’s 6M vehicles registered)
• Investments (commercial, real estate,infrastructure)
to develop/protect the city increases vulnerability
Garbage Filling the Tributary of Pasig River
Source: Manda, E. (2009)
Threats to Urban/City Resilience:
Poverty, Inequality and Social Exclusion
Business
establishments
Informal settlements
Makati City (Financial Capital, Philippines): ‘High
Rise’ Buildings vs. slum and/or informal settlements
The Most Vulnerable Populations in Metro
Manila
• Live in low-lying or swampy/wetlands, informal
settlements
• Low-income and/or no stable sources of income (less than
US$ 1/day); high number of dependents
• Majority (about 80 percent) have no security of tenure
• About 75 percent have no adequate access to basic
services (potable water, electricity, sanitation facilities get
flooded, etc.)
• About 75 percent regularly suffer income/job loss,
sickness, and schooling of children as a result of
floods/typhoons
• About 75 percent suffer loss of HH appliances, garments
or need house repair due to typhoons/floods
• Single-headed/female-headed households (singles,
widows, widowers and old)
Table 2. Ecological-Envi Vulnerabilities of Places: Social
Vulnerabilities for Urban Poor Households in the
Three Metro Manila Flood Plains
Flood
Plains
PasigMarikina
KAMANAVA
West
Mangahan
Environmental characteristics:
Sources of vulnerabilities
Living in flood-prone areas along
riverlines/riverbanks, subsidence,
clogged waterways
Living along flood-prone riverlines;
near the coast (prone to floods and
sea level rise/tidal surges), land
subsidence, clogged waterways
Living along flood prone riverlines
(Mangahan Floodway, Napindan
Channel) near Laguna Lake,
swampy lands/wetlands,
subsidence, clogged waterways
Socio-eco.
characteristics: Sources
of vulnerabilities
Mdn monthly income:
P18,000;
Ave.Education--9.5 yrs.
Mdn monthly income:
P15,000
Ave. education: 11 years
Mdn monthly income:
P8,000;Educ: 7.5 years;
Housing dilapidated, light
materials, migrants,
renters, women-headed
households, no services
Household Losses by Gender Due to Floods from
Tropical Storm Ondoy (Before-During-After)
Pre-Ondoy
Ondoy
Period
Men- Women Me Womenheaded -headed nheaded
HH
HH
hea
HH
ded
HH
33%
21%
No. of school
absences
Work days lost
from sickness
No. of work days
lost
Ave. income loss
Ave. expenses on
medicines
Ave. losses
Source: Porio
(2011)
(appliances,
etc.)
40%
Menheaded
HH
-
60%
10%
50%
11%
24%
-10%
6%
-
-20%
-
Womenheaded HH
17%
11%
33%
90%
- 33%
-
Post-Ondoy Period
-
-
-
Adaptive Responses
Water-Based/Adaptive Lifestyle: Household
level
1) Architecture—design/materials
2) Raising/adding floors
3) Movable Storage of appliances/garments
City/Local Government Level:
1) DRRM-CCA policies
2) Organizational/Institutional
3) Early warning system
4) Flood control programs
5) Evacuation and Relocation
Poverty, Environment, and Climaterelated Risks in Metro Manila
Day After Typhoon Milenyo: Children Looking at playgound in Navotas
Lakeside Community: Habagat Floods (2012)
SWAT and Pasig City Rescue Officials
in the Immediate Rescue and
Evacuation Plan for Flood Victims (2009)
Plastic Gallons as Floating Gear during
Habagat Floods
Rescue Work during Habagat Floods in
Marikina City
Children: No Fear of “Lepto”
Pedi-cab: Only Reliable Transport
Life Continues…Still Need to Move
Even if the City Has Stopped
Transportation During Habagat Floods
(August 2012)
Street Homeless Group: Waiting for the
Floods to Subside in Quezon City
Relaxing While Waiting to Rescue in Marikina
Relief Distribution during Habagat
Floods (August 2012)
Bangkulasi, Navotas City: After Typhoon Milenyo
Coastal Cities at Risk Research: Understanding
Vulnerability and Increasing Adaptive Capacity
and Resilience
• Calibrated interconnectedness of bio-physical and
social (poverty-inequality/ health politicaleconomic issues of power and resource distribution
underlying vulnerability and adaptation)
• Social–spatial dimensions: planning/programming
• Science-based/empirically driven to social,
political, economic applications to reduce risks to
the city’s most vulnerable: urban poor population
• Connecting/integrating these at different levels of
decision-making/action frameworks
Maraming salamat po!
Salamat kaayo sa inyong tanan!
Thank you!
Acknowledgements
•Dir. Antonia Loyzaga
•Dr. Gemma Narisma
•Dr. Celine Vicente
•Dr. Kendra Gotangco
•Dr Fernando Siringan
•Dr. Posa Perez
•FORIN Team
•Jessica Bercilla
•Julie Dado
•Emil Gozo,Justin See, John Paul Dalupang, Liz
del Castillo, JoEd Perez
•Raul Dayawon, Patricia Sanchez
Asia’s Urbanization: Physical,
Social, Pol-Eco. Dimensions
From 10% to 50%
Population of Urban Areas in Asia in a duration of 61 years
43%
Urban Share of Asia’s Population in 2010
63%
Projected Urban Share of Asia’s Population in 2016
21 out of 27
Projected Number of Asia’s Megacities by 2025
34%
Total World Merchandise Exports from Asia Pacific Region in 2011 (from 25% in 2001)
42.2%
Average Share of Remittances of Tajikistan
23.3%
Average Share of Remittances of Tonga
23.2%
Average Share of Remittances of Kyrgyz Republic
410 million
Projected Urban Asians at Risk of Coastal Flooding by 2025
67%
Asian Cities Failing to Meet European Union’s Air Quality Standard
97%
Growth of Average per Capita Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Asia
506 million
Slum Dwellers in Asia in 2010
408 million
Asians Without Access to Improved Sanitation Facilities
..
Child crossing makeshift bridge to buy food across waterway in
swampy Ibayo Tipas, Taguig City, West Mangahan Flood Basin
1.How does the
city work?
URBAN
SYSTEMS
URBAN
POVERTY
REDUCTION
VULNERABLE
GROUPS
DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
PERI-URBAN
SYSTEMS
URBAN
CLIMATE
CHANGE RISK
2. What are the
direct and
indirect impacts
of climate
change?
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Direct
Impact
RURAL
SYSTEMS
3. Who is least able to
respond to shocks and
stresses?
Climate impacts: a compound effect combining direct impacts,
indirect impacts and pre-existing vulnerabilities.
(Porio, 2013 modified from Jo da Silva, Sam Kernaghan & Andrés Luque, 2012)
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the
United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unup.
Urbanization in the ASEAN Countries
..
.
Source: UN 2007.
Poverty in Metro Manila
Number of Informal Settlers in Metro Manila by City and Municipality, 2002
Summary of Costs of Basic Needs/Services (in pesos,
monthly, US$ 1=P43)
Pre-Ondoy
Food
Ondoy Period
Post-Ondoy
Men
HH
Women HH
Men
HH
Women HH
Men
HH
Women
HH
P6,000
P5,800
P2,500 + relief
goods
P2,000 +
relief goods
P6,500
P6,000
P50
P45
P240
P240
P60
P50
P80 (well)
P500
(piped)
P80 (well)
P550
(piped)
P80 (well, long
lines)
P1,500 (piped)
P80 (well,
long lines)
P1,500
(piped)
P80 (well)
P740 (piped)
P80 (well)
P700 (piped)
P2,000
P1,800
P5,000
P4,500
P2,000 (wet)
P3,000 (dry)
P1,800 (wet)
P2,500 (dry)
P300
P310
P2,000
P2,000
P360
P320
P1,500 –
P15,000
P1,000 –
P8,000
Water
• Drinking
• Cooking/washing
utensils
Energy/electricity
Sanitation/Laundry
(mud, waist deep;
cleaning – 2 weeks – one
month)
House repair
Source: Porio (2011)
Summary of Costs/Losses Due to Floods (monthly)
Pre-Ondoy
Ondoy Period
Post-Ondoy
Men
HH
Women HH
Men
HH
Women HH
Men
HH
Women
HH
Absences from school
6
8
14
17
6
7
Number of workdays lost
from sickness due to flood
5
7
9
10
5
8
Number of work days lost
due to flood
6
8
20
22
6
9
Average income loss due to
floods
P1,715
P3,250
P7,250
P6,450
P2,750
P3,400
Average amount of spent on
medicine
P300
P400
P3,200
P3,000
P500
P450
P25,000
P20,000
-
-
P6,500
P4,200
Average losses (appliances,
etc.)
Average income
Source: Porio (2011)
P6,250
P5,000
Deadly Storms/Typhoons (Out of the 19) in 2011
in the Philippines (plus earthquakes)