Transcript The Challenge of Food Security to CAP post 2013

The Challenge of:
Food Security
Maggie Gill
Chief Scientific Adviser
Rural Affairs and Environment
Origins of the CAP
• 1950s – food supplies could not be
guaranteed
• Governments in Europe wanted to
encourage increased agricultural
productivity to ensure supplies of
affordable food for citizens
EU surpluses over time (1991-2008) for
wheat, beef, and butter
European Commission, DG AGRI,
Discussion Paper December 2009 – Why
do we need a Common
Agricultural Policy?
Reasons behind food price
spike of 2007
• Low projected global stocks/use ratios in
2007/08
• Rapid increase in energy prices
• Significant weakening of the US $
• Export restrictions in a number of
countries
Food in 2010
~ 7 billion people on earth
~ 925 million don’t get enough to eat
~ 1 billion eat diets missing in micronutrients
~ 1 billion eat considerably more than they
need (obese)
2011
Can we produce enough food to feed the
global population today?
Yes
Do we succeed in distributing food
equitably?
No
Definition of Food Security
“Food security exists when all people, at
all times, have physical and economic
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious
food to meet their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and
healthy life.”
[FAO, World Food Summit 1996]
2050
Will we be able to feed 9 billion people
sustainably and equitably in 2050?
That depends….
Question addressed by:
Foresight: The Future of Food and
farming (2011)
http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/ourwork/projects/current-projects/global-food-andfarming-futures
Foresight recommends action on:
• More food must be produced
sustainably;
• Demand for the most resourceintensive types of food must be
contained;
• Waste in all areas of food must be
minimised;
• The political and economic governance of
food must be improved
Drivers of future challenges
•
•
•
•
•
•
Population increases
Size and nature of per capita demand
Trade issues in food and land
Climate change
Competition for key resources
Changes in values and ethical stances of
consumers
Future of CAP for Food
Security
........needs to incentivise resource
efficient food production
What do we mean by resource
efficient?
Use of Feed concentrate
Million tonnes
1980
2005
Developed
countries
668.7
647.4
Developing
countries
239.6
602.7
World
908.4
1250.1
Food Conversion Ratio for Different Systems
of Livestock Production
Human Edible Protein Output
(kg input/kg output)
Upland lamb
Total Protein
Intake
35.7
Upland suckler beef
26.3
‘Cereal’ beef
8.3
Milk
5.6
Pig meat
4.3
Poultry meat
3.0
(Wilkinson, 2011)
Food Conversion Ratio for Different Systems
of Livestock Production
Human Edible Protein Output
(kg input/kg output)
Upland lamb
Total Protein Human Edible
Intake
Intake
35.7
1.6
Upland suckler beef
26.3
0.92
‘Cereal’ beef
8.3
3.0
Milk
5.6
0.71
Pig meat
4.3
2.6
Poultry meat
3.0
2.1
(Wilkinson, 2011)
Variation in Technical Performance on Farm
MILK YIELD : MEAL FED
9,500.00
MILK YIELD/COW (LITRES)
8,500.00
7,500.00
2,500L
difference
6,500.00
5,500.00
Significant opportunity exists to reduce
emissions within current practice .
4,500.00
3,500.00
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
4,000.00
4,500.00
MEAL FED/COW (KG)
Source: CAFRE, DARD
Drivers of future challenges
•
•
•
•
•
•
Population increases
Size and nature of per capita demand
Trade issues in food and land
Climate change
Competition for key resources
Changes in values and ethical stances of
consumers
Highest priority changes to
consumption (Foresight report)
• reducing food waste
• reducing consumption of food and drink of
low nutritional value16, i.e. fatty and
sugary foods, tea, coffee and alcohol
• reducing consumption of meat and
dairy products
...... Based on evidence of both health and
sustainability benefits
Global trade in livestock
products
Million tonnes
1980
2006
Pig
2.6
10.4
Poultry
1.5
11.1
Cattle
4.3
9.2
Sheep
0.8
1.1
Scottish meat production by type
Tonnes dry
carcass wt
Beef
2000
2007
177,000
188,000
Mutton and lamb
74,000
66,000
Pigmeat
72,000
58,000
Poultry
142,000
97,000
Take away messages
• Pillar 1 support post 2013 needs to
incentivise resource-efficient production
• ‘Resources’ need to include land (food
security) and productivity of individual
livestock (climate change)
• CAP cannot provide a solution to deal with
trade-offs – we each have a responsibility