Transcript 35431

Food Insecurity, Hunger, and
Malnutrition: Necessary Policy and
Technology Changes
Joachim von Braun
International Food Policy Research Institute
Study week on “Transgenic Plants for Food Security in the Context of
Development”
The Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican City, May 15, 2009
Overview
1. Ending hunger as a global priority
2. The food and nutrition crisis expands
and deepens
3. The responses to the crisis by people,
policy, and markets
4. Necessary policy and technology
changes
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Consensus and call to action
“The poor… should rise above poverty
and wretchedness, and better their
condition in life.”
(Encyclical, Pope Leo XIII 1891)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Approaches to overcome hunger
1. Development (economic, technological,
institutional)
2. Charity (private, public)
3. Rights-based approach (human right to
food, legal, advocacy)
All three have an ethical base
Synergies exist, e.g.: blocking 1st
undermines 3rd, and cannot easily be
compensated for by 2nd .
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Messages of this presentation
1. Technology innovations in food and
agriculture are cutting across and are
pervasive
2. Agr. tech. powers come through
development as part of other innovations
3. If agr. tech innovations are blocked,
development is blocked, poverty and hunger
is perpetuated
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Overview
1. Ending hunger as a global priority
2. The food and nutrition crisis expands
and deepens
3. The responses to the crisis by people,
policy, and markets
4. Necessary policy and technology
changes
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Growth matters: hunger - income linkage
Hunger and GDP/ capita in developing countries
Undernourishme
nt (% of pop)
Log. (1990-1992)
50
Log. (2001-03)
Log. (1995-1997)
40
30
20
10
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
GDP per Capita (in constant 2000 US$)
Source: von Braun, regressions based on data from World Bank (2005) and FAO (2005)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
1.4 billion people remain poor in the
developing world
Poverty at $1/day, 2005 PPP
80
East Asia and Pacific
1.2
South Asia
1.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.8
Billions
% of population
60
40
0.4
East Asia and Pacific
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
20
0.6
0.2
0
0.0
1981
1987
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
1993
1999
2005
1981
1987
1993
1999
2005
Source: Chen and Ravallion 2008.
The ultra poor concentrated in SSA
LAC
19 mln
ECA
3 mln
EAP
109.3
mln
MENA
3.3 mln
SSA
87.0
mln
SA
263.6
mln
LAC ECA 1. 1 mln MENA
0 . 9 mln
16 . 6 mln
EAP
5 1 mln
MENA
0.2 mln
EAP
8.8 mln
SSA
9 0 . 2 mln
SA
16 2 . 9 mln
People living on People living on
$0.50-$0.75 a day:
$0.75-$1 a day:
323 million
485 million
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
ECA 0.4 mln
LAC
11.5 mln
SA
19.7 mln
SSA
121 mln
People living on
<$0.50 a day:
162 million
Source: Ahmed et al. 2007.
Rising number of hungry people in the
developing world
(in million)
>1 bil.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
WFS target
Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009.
Progress in “hunger” reduction,
Global Hunger Index 2008 vs. 1990
lack of calories, child under-nutrition, child death
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Source:. IFPRI 2008.
Who is affected by hunger?
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force, 2005.
…and average farm sizes are getting smaller
Hectares
3.0
Average farm sizes in selected countries
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
India
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
China
Ethiopia
19
20 95
02
-0
3
19
19 77
89
20 92
01
-0
2
19
80
19
90
19
99
19
70
19 71
81
19 82
91
20 92
02
-0
3
0.0
Tanzania
Sources: Fan and Chan-Kang 2003, FAO Agricultural World
Census and Indiastat.
Agricultural productivity growth in
developing countries: too low!
Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992-2003
%
East Asia
2.7
South Asia
1.0
East Africa
0.4
West Africa
1.6
Southern Africa
1.3
Latin America
2.7
North Africa & West Asia
1.4
All regions
2.1
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Small farms
can be very
productive
Source: von Braun et al. 2008.
Are we living in unusual times?
1872-2008 prices and population
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Sources: J. von Braun, based on data from NBER Macrohistory database,
BLS CPI database, Godo 2001, OECD 2005, and FAO 2008;
Population data from U.S. Census Bureau Int’l database and UN1999.
World Population: Population 2050
- from 6.7 to 9 Billion -
The good news: probably not more than 9 Billion
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Source: Worldmapper 2009.
The development and demographic
challenges to “feed the world”
1. overcome current hunger among
2 Billion
2. + 2 – 3 Billion population;
3. + increased demand (income
growth from demographic
dividend and development)
------------------------= doubling food (by 2050)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Land / Water Constraints
• There is at most 12% more arable land
available that isn’t presently forested or
subject to erosion or desertification (R.
Thompson, 2009)
• The area of land in farm production could be
doubled, but only by massive destruction of
forests and loss of biodiversity and carbon
sequestration capacity, and
• at high marginal costs of investment.
------------------------------= a (relative) constraint
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Current Areas of Physical and Economic
Water Scarcity
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007.
Agriculture and climate change:
part of the problem and the solution
• Agriculture is part of the problem:
Agriculture: 13.5 % of the CO2 equivalents
(Transport: 13.1%), and forestry 19%
• Agriculture is part of the solution:
Biomass; CO2 sequestration; soil
management
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Climate change will affect agriculture
• Threat 1: Changes to production with
- higher and more variable temperatures
- changed precipitation patterns
- more extreme events (droughts, floods), etc.
• Threat 2: climate change policies
- for agriculture and poor farming communities if
agriculture is not or not well included in
Copenhagen etc.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Overview
1. Ending hunger as a global priority
2. The food and nutrition crisis expands
and deepens
3. The responses to the crisis by people,
policy, and markets
4. Necessary policy and technology
changes
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Response 1: markets - price spike, 2007-08
800
Corn
Wheat
Rice
Oil (right scale)
125
100
75
400
50
200
0
US$/barrel
US$/ton
600
Price spike
25
0
Export bans; biofuels, not sharing in times of need
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Source: Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.
Response 2: suffering among the poor
Purchasing power: 50-70% of income spent on food and
wages do not adjust accordingly
Assets and human capital: distressed sale of productive
assets, withdrawal of girls from school, etc.
+ Level of diet (low) and nutritional deficiencies (high)
Nutrition is undermined
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Source: Joachim von Braun 2008.
Response 3: Food riots
800
700
600
20
500
15
400
10
300
200
# of riots
US$/ton
25
Maize
Wheat
Rice
Riots (right)
5
100
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
0
Jul-07
0
Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Prices are data from FAO
Financial crisis and depression
• Less capital for agriculture now
• Higher debt burden for farmers who invested in
agriculture expansion
• Reduced employment and wages of unskilled
workers
• Reduced remittances
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Response 4: Pledges to address the food
crisis (2008/9)
Donor organization/country
Pledge (bil.$)
World Bank
2
EU (EC & national)
5+
USA
6
Increase in public budgets on agric. and social protection
bil. $US
% change
China
23
+27%
India
6
+24%
Plus 2009 stimulus packages:
China: 109 bil. US$ for agriculture
India: also increased ++
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Source: IFPRI, compiled from news sources and government budgets.
Response 5: Looking for Land
Source: IFPRI media and reporting analyses Note: Thicker lines reflect investments >100,000 ha;
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
for some thinner lines, data on investment size is not available.
Overview
1. Ending hunger as a global priority
2. The food and nutrition crisis expands
and deepens
3. The responses to the crisis by people,
policy, and markets
4. Necessary policy and technology
changes
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Strategic agenda
1. Promote pro-poor agriculture growth with
technology and institutional innovations
2. Facilitate open trade and reduce market
volatility
3. Expand social protection and child
nutrition action
Action needed for all 3
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Synergy between technology and
institutional arrangements
Challenges
Hunger and diet deficits
Population growth
Agric productivity
Role of
technology
++
*
+
+++
Role of
institutions
++
+
*
++
Volatility of prices
+
+++
Recession impact
+
++
Climate change and water
+++
*
* = Strong role of bio-technology
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
+++
What to do about volatility?
1. Keep trade open at times of global and
regional food shortage is a must
2. Regulation of food commodity markets? (as
part of financial markets)
3. Establish grain reserves policy at global level
(emergency reserve, shared physical
reserves, and a virtual reserve > a new
institution at global level needed)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Use bio-technology to address hunger and
food insecurity
1. Farmers (higher productivity, small farmers can
be major beneficiaries)
2. Consumers (improved health outcomes,
reduction in food and health expenditure)
3. International trade (reduction in global food
prices and volatility)
4. Insurance against food security risks (must
have technology in stock)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
If no investment in Biotech,
what are the other options?
Alternative 1: Use more environmental capital
Alternative 2: Invest more in safety nets and
direct action
But, these alternatives are not
feasible/sustainable
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Need a functional bio-safety system - evidence
based (neither light, nor for blockade)
Regulatory decision
points
Contained Use
Experiments
Confined
Field Trials
Deliberate
Release
Post
Release
Time
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Central for long-term agric. growth:
Double public agric. R&D to impact poverty
R&D allocation
(mil. 2005 $)
 in # of
+ Agr. output
growth (% pts.)
2008-2020
2008*
2013
poor (mil.)
2008-2020
SSA
608
2,913
-143.8
2.8
S Asia
908
3,111
-124.6
2.4
4,975
9,951
-282.1
1.1
Devel.ing
World
CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion
as part of this expansion
And biotech as part of the public science policy strategy
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.
Agriculture must be on the climate change
agenda, but how?
1. Investment: agriculture-related investments,
as part of a Global Climate Change Fund for
technology to adapt
2. Incentives: C&T and carbon market may
conflict with food security; phase in
incentives first to reduce emissions, support
technol. change
3. Information: Establish comprehensive
information and monitoring services of land
use and soils for verification base
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
Different innovation needs and (risk)
preferences of poor and rich: reconcile !
1. Must not compartmentalize innovation (“we do
not need it”! “we” / “they”?) as this stops
innovation in it’s tracks.
2. Survival and basic needs are absolute (must not
weight against relative preferences)
3. Solutions to overcome conflict must be found in
the interest of the poor:
- access to technology (implicit in right to food)
- actively develop pro-poor technology
- access to the product benefits (not to prevent the
poorest “their” markets; facilitate market segmentation
if necessary)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009
www.ifpri.org
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009