Transcript Presentation given at Peter Smith Associates

Climate Change Mitigation
10th January 2006
2006年1月10日
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
CRed
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation:
Energy Science Director of CRed Project
Climate Change Mitigation
•
•
•
•
•
The facts about Global Warming
Energy Security Issues
Hard Choices Ahead
Carbon Reduction
Good Practice Examples from UEA
–
–
–
–
Elizabeth Fry
ZICER
CHP
Adsorption Chilling
• Conclusions
Future Global Warming Rates
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
380
370
(ppm)
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Change in precipitation 1961-2001
Source: Tim Osborne, CRU
Total winter precipitation
Total summer precipitation
Climate Change
Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice
coverage of
Arctic Polar
Region
– Nasa satellite
imagery
2003
1979
•20% reduction in 24 years
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
Climate Change Mitigation
•
•
•
•
•
The facts about Global Warming
Energy Security Issues
Hard Choices Ahead
Carbon Reduction
Good Practice Examples from UEA
–
–
–
–
Elizabeth Fry
ZICER
CHP
Adsorption Chilling
• Conclusions
Difficult Choices Ahead
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020
- Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002
14000
potential
Nuclear
contribution
to Generating Capacity
Electricity Supply
in 2020
(p per kWh)
Installed Capacity (MW)
12000
Gas CCGT
10000
68000
nuclear56000
fission
(long term)
44000
40% and rising)
Projection
Actual
2
1
0
1955
~ 2p + but recent
trends put figure
much higher
0 - 60% (France new inherently safe
80%) - (currently 20 designs - some practical
- 25% and falling) development needed
3
nuclear2000
fusion
available now, but UK
gas will run out within
current decade
0 - 80% Price
(currently
Wholesale
of Electricity
costs in 2020
unavailable
Traditional
1975
1965
2.5 - 3.5p
not available until 2040
at earliest
Coal
2015
2005
1995 components
1985 Basic
2003 falling rapidly
2004
- available 2005
- not viable
"Clean0Coal"
coal
supply
Jan1 Apr Jul Oct
Jancould
Apr Jul
Oct Jan without
Apr25 Jul Carbon
Oct
13
40 - 50% by 2020 Sequestration
2025
2035
2.5 - 3.5p - but will
EU - ETS affect
this
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
potential
2.5 - 3p
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore
Wind Fuels:
~25% available now for commercial
Transport
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore
Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
• Biodiesel?
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro• Bioethanol?
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
100% + available, but research needed in
some areas
2.5 - 4
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal
Stream
Tidal Barrages
100% + techology limited - extensive
4 - 8p
Geothermal
some areas
development unlikely before 2020
10 - 20% technology available but unlikely
without Government intervention
unlikely for electricity generation
before 2050 if then
not
costed
Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Solar Collectors installed on
house in Norwich
27th January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
Solar Thermal Performance - detached house in Norwich
8
Will save about 0.25 tonnes per year
No automatic data data averaged
7
6
Net Solar Gain (kWhrs/day)
No automatic data data averaged
5
4
3
2
1
0
08/02/04
22/02/04
07/03/04
21/03/04
04/04/04
18/04/04
02/05/04
16/05/04
30/05/04
From 27th Jan - 15th Sept 2004 average gain 3.16 kWh per day
Saving Energy – A Practical Guide
Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint
Micro CHP
Heat Pumps
Micro Wind
Climate Change Mitigation
•
•
•
•
•
The facts about Global Warming
Energy Security Issues
Hard Choices Ahead
Carbon Reduction
Good Practice Examples from UEA
–
–
–
–
Elizabeth Fry
ZICER
CHP
Adsorption Chilling
• Conclusions
Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and
biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
•
Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
•
then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
•
unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years
which is unlikely
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of
gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity
from GAS
• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global
Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route
and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
Climate Change Mitigation
•
•
•
•
•
The facts about Global Warming
Energy Security Issues
Hard Choices Ahead
Carbon Reduction
Good Practice Examples from UEA
–
–
–
–
Elizabeth Fry
ZICER
CHP
Adsorption Chilling
• Conclusions
Government Response
• Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in
CO2 emissions by 2050
• Will require unprecedented partnership activity in
local communities to ensure on track by 2020s
• (– but no indication of how this will be
undertaken)
“There will be much more local generation, in part from
medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by
locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and
from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed
networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’
- Energy White Paper: February 2003
On average each person in UK
causes the emission of 9 tonnes
of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9
tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per
year.
Around 4 million in Norfolk
"Nobody made a greater mistake than
he who did nothing because he
thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
Raising Awareness
• Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT
DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO2 a year.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of
1 party balloon.
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year
~ 1000 balloons each year.
• Standby on electrical appliances
80+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
•
Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank – 40 litres)
--------- 90 kg of CO2
(5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota
Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room
for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
Involve the local Community
• Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned
for a wind turbine.
• On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs
and indeed are a net exporter of electricity
Results of the “Big Switch-Off”
Target Day
With a concerted effort savings of 25% or more are possible
How can these be translated into long term savings?
Electricity Statistics:
City of Norwich
• Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year.
• Broadland
5057 kWh
Breckland
5612 kWh
• North Norfolk
5668 kWh
South Norfolk
5797 kWh
• Kings Lynn and West Norfolk
• Great Yarmouth
5908 kWh
5144 kWh
• A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands would supply 66% of
domestic needs for whole of Norwich (or 22% of total demand)
• Would save ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or
40 000 hot air balloons each year.
• The alternative:
• Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car again
• Or 300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.
Electricity Consumption (TWh)
Historic and Future Demand for Electricity
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household
must fall by this amount just to remain static
Electricity Options for the Future
Low Growth Scenario
Capped at 420 TWh
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
250
• 33% CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990
• 62% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990
• 68 % increase in gas consumption
( Gas Scenario) cf 2002
• Mix option: 6 new nuclear plant by 2025
• Mix option: 11% increase in gas
consumption (cf 2002)
MTonnes CO 2
200
150
100
Actual
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
40:20:40 Mix
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
High Growth Scenario
Business as Usual
25% Renewables by 2025
• 20000 MW Wind
• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc.
Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.
350
300
Mtonnes CO2
• 0.3 % CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990
• 54% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990
• 257% increase in gas consumption
( Gas Scenario) cf 2002
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990
Actual
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
40:20:40 Mix
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Climate Change Mitigation
•
•
•
•
•
The facts about Global Warming
Energy Security Issues
Hard Choices Ahead
Carbon Reduction
Good Practice Examples from UEA
–
–
–
–
Elizabeth Fry
ZICER
CHP
Adsorption Chilling
• Conclusions
Main Energy Conservation Projects at UEA
• Constable Terrace/ Nelson Court Student Residences
• Elizabeth Fry Building
• Combined Heat and Power
• School of Medicine
• ZICER Building
The Future
• Absorption Chilling
The Elizabeth Fry Building
Principle of TermoDeck Operation
Filter
Supply duct to
Incoming
Air
hollow core slabs
Heater
Exhaust
Air
Two channel
regenerative heat
exchanger
Exhaust Air
from rooms Floor Slabs
Diffuser
• Air is circulated through whole fabric of building
• Uses regenerative Heat Exchangers ~ 85% efficient
Principle of Operation
Quadruple Glazing
Thick Insulation
Air circulates through
whole fabric of building
Mean Surface Temperature
close to Air Temperature
Elizabeth Fry Building – Key Facts
•
180 mm insulation on walls
•
300 mm roof insulation
•
100 mm floor insulation
• Triple glazing with Low E Glass ~ quadruple glazing
• Air – Pressure Test at 50 Pa – not to exceed 1.0 ach
Actual performance 0.97 ach
Has deteriorated slightly since 1996
• Heated using a single domestic heating boiler (24 kW)
• No heating needed at temperatures as cool as 8 - 9oC
• 87% of ventilation heat recovered via regenerative Heat
Exchangers.
Performance of Elizabeth Fry Building
Careful Monitoring and Analysis can reduce energy consumption
Performance of Elizabeth Fry Building
Carbon Dioxide Emissions for
Space and Water Heating
Actual
Low
Energy
Normal
kg CO2/ m2 / yr
5.8
34
41
User Satisfaction
thermal comfort +28%
air quality
+36%
lighting
+25%
noise
+26%
A Low Energy Building is
also a better place to work in
The ZICER Building
Zuckerman Institute for Connective Environmental Research
• “Termodeck” construction
• 34 kW Photo Voltaic Array
ZICER Construction
Ducts in floor slab
Performance of ZICER Building
2004
2005
EFry
ZICER
• Initially performance was poor
• Performance improved with new Management Strategy
Performance of ZICER Building
Temperature of air and fabric in building varies little
even on a day in summer (June 21st – 22nd 2005)
Generation of Electricity with a Gas Engine
61% Flue
Losses
3% Radiation
Losses
36%
efficient
GAS
Engine
Generator
36% Electricity
Combined Heat and Power at UEA
3% Radiation
Losses
11% Flue
Losses
81%
efficient
Exhaust
Heat
Exchanger
GAS
Reduces
conversion losses
significantly
Engine
Engine heat Exchanger
45% Heat
Localised
generation can
make use of
waste heat.
Generator
36% Electricity
Performance of CHP units
Before installation
1997/98
electricity
gas
oil
19895
35148
33
MWh
Total
Emission factor
kg/kWh
0.46
0.186
0.277
Carbon dioxide
Tonnes
9152
6538
9
15699
After installation
1999/
2000
Electricity
Heat
Total
CHP export import boilers CHP
site generation
MWh 20437
Emission kg/kWh
factor
Carbon Tonnes
dioxide
15630
oil
total
977
5783
14510 28263 923
-0.46
0.46
0.186
0.186 0.277
-449
2660
2699
5257 256 10422
This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide
Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA
Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used
effectively
More electricity could be generated in summer
Normal
Air-conditioning
Adsorption
Air-Conditioning
Heat from external
source
Heat rejected
High Temperature
High Pressure
Desorber
Heat
Compressor
Exchanger
Condenser
Throttle
Valve
W~0
Evaporator
Absorber
Heat extracted
for cooling
•
•
•
•
Low Temperature
Low Pressure
Adsorption Heat pump uses Waste Heat from CHP
Will provide most of chilling requirements in summer
Will reduce electricity demand in summer
Will increase electricity generated locally
Legislation can help and hinder effective use of energy
The method by which electricity is traded in the UK (
The BETTA System) has adversely affected viability of
CHP in the UK.
The European Union Emission Trading System has
anomalies which hinder effective developments such as
Adsorption Chilling.
Building Regulations can hinder the building of most
energy efficient buildings
Performance of Elizabeth Fry and ZICER
and Building Regulations
Variation of Carbon Emission and Carbon Index with
Building Regulations
Variation of Carbon Emission and Carbon Index
problems with current Building Regulations
20
70
pre-war
18
60
40
16
14
kg CO2 /m /yr
1976
30
1985
1990
1994
20
10
8
6
2002
10
2002
12
2
2
Theorectical
Perfection
in 2002
Regulations
1965
50
kg CO2 /m /yr
Theorectical
Perfection
in 2002
Regulations
1955
Elizabeth Fry
ZICER
Elizabeth Fry
ZICER
4
2
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Carbon Index
7
8
9
10
0
7
8
9
Carbon Index
10
Climate Change Mitigation
•
•
•
•
•
The facts about Global Warming
Energy Security Issues
Hard Choices Ahead
Carbon Reduction
Good Practice Examples from UEA
–
–
–
–
Elizabeth Fry
ZICER
CHP
Adsorption Chilling
• Conclusions
Conclusions
• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction
over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Security
more likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of
energy
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of
energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for
renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.
•
Otherwise Nuclear???
• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy
Security issues will shortly start to affect us.
Conclusions
• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of
whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/
This presentation will be available from
tomorrow at:
www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm
Are you up to the Challenge?:
Will you make a pledge?
"If you do not change direction, you
may end up where you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher