Transcript Our Carbon Challenge - University of East Anglia

Norfolk Federation of Women’s Institutes
Carbon Challenge Day
February 23rd 2008
Our Carbon Challenge
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
5th October 2007
N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук
Energy Science Director CRed Project
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HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
The Carbon Challenge
•
•
•
•
The background of the problem
How does the UK compare with other countries
How do we tackle the challenge
Conclusions
2
Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
380
370
(ppm)
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
3
Increasing
IncreasingOccurrence
OccurrenceofofDrought
Flood
Change in precipitation 1961-2001
Source: Tim Osborne, CRU
Total winter precipitation
Total summer precipitation
4
Consequence of ~ 1m rise
Consequence of ~ 6m rise
Norwich
(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)
Norwich City would be playing water polo!
5
Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record
today
Carbon Dioxide
(ppmv)
350
Ice ages are not random. They are
'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock….
changes in the sunlight received).
Last Interglacial
Last Ice Age
300
1800
250
200
[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Thousands of Years Before Present
Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO2 increases are mainly
due to fossil fuel burning. CO2 has not been this high in more than half a
million years.
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Is Global Warming man made?
Temperature Rise (oC)
1.0
actual
predicted
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Predictions include:
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
Not a good match between 1920
and 1970
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
•
Sulphates and ozone
•
Solar and volcanic activity
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
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Is Global Warming man made?
1.0
1.0
actual
predicted
Temperature
Rise (oC)Rise
Temperature
(oC)
0.5
0.5
0.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.5
18601880
1860
1880
1900
19201900
1940
19201980
1960
1940
2000
1960
1980
2000
Predictions include:
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
Prediction: Natural only
•
Sulphates and ozone
good match until 1960
•
Solar and volcanic activity
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
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Is Global Warming man made?
Temperature Rise (oC)
1.0
actual
predicted
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Predictions include:
Prediction: Natural and
Anthropogenic
Generally a good match
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
•
Sulphates and ozone
•
Solar and volcanic activity
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
9
Human and Natural Causes of Climate Change
© IPCC: WG1-AR4
Carbon dioxide is causing the bulk of the forcing.
Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
‫تغير المناخ‬
‫ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب‬1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of
Arctic Polar Region
• NASA satellite
imagery
• ‫الصيف الجليد في القطب‬
‫الشمالي تغطية المنطقة‬
‫القطبيه‬
• ‫ناسا الصور الفضاءيه‬
2003
1979
•20% reduction in 24 years
•20 ٪ ‫ سنوات‬24 ‫تخفيض في‬
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
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The Carbon Challenge
• The background of the problem
• How does the UK compare with other countries
– Should we adopt the notion of contraction and
convergence • All people have an equal allowance of carbon
emission by end of century?
• Reduction in developed world allowing small
increase in developing world to raise their
standards of living.
• How do we tackle the challenge
• Conclusions
12
Our Carbon Challenge
• Each person in UK emits ~ 9 tonnes of carbon dioxide each year.
• How does this compare with other countries?
CO2 per capita
50
45
Developing
40
Transition
EU
30
Other OECD
Oil Exporting
25
20
15
10
5
0
Pakistan
India
Namibia
Brazil
Botswana
china
Lithuania
Sweden
Switzerland
France
Ukraine
South Africa
Poland
Italy
Libya
Norway
Greece
Denmark
UK
Germany
Russia
Netherlands
Australia
USA
UAE
Qatar
Tonnes/capita/year
35
13
How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?
• Why has France a much lower carbon emission per capita than
UK?
• Why has Germany and the Netherlands a higher factor?
• Carbon emission factors:
– Direct use of fuels:
• natural gas ~ 0.188 kg/kWh (varies slightly)
• oil (depending on grade) ~ 0.25 kg/kWh
• coal (depending on grade) ~ 0.30 kg/kWh
– Electricity (including losses in transmission):
•
Coal Generation
~ 1000 g / kWH
•
Oil Generation
~
900 g / kWH
•
Gas Generation
~
400 g / kWh
•
Nuclear Generation
~
5 – 10 g / kWH
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Poland
India
Australia
Libya
China
Italy
Czech Republic
USA
Denmark
Portugal
Germany
UK
Netherlands
Spain
UAE
Qatar
Luxembourg
Belgium
Austria
600
France
800
Sweden
1000
Switzerland
Norway
gms CO2 / kWH
How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?
Carbon Emission Factor in Electricity Generation
1200
Developing
EU
Oil Exporting
Other OECD
400
200
0
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How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?
Electricity Carbon Factor
1,000
Developing
900
EU
gms CO2 / kWh
800
Other OECD
700
Oil Exporting
600
500
UK
400
300
Luxembourg
200
100
0
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
% renewables + nuclear
100%
120%
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Sweden
Norway
France
Pakistan
Lithuania
Brazil
Switzerland
Namibia
Ukraine
India
Netherlands
Botswana
UK
Qatar
UAE
Germany
Libya
Russia
Denmark
Italy
USA
South Africa
China
Australia
Greece
Poland
tonnes CO2 / tonne of oil equavlanet
How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?
Carbon efficiency of Energy use
3.5
3
2.5
Developing
Transition
EU 15
Other OECD
Oil Exporting
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Why is there such a difference between one country and another?
17
How carbon friendly is the way we generate our wealth?
Carbon Dioxide emitted to generate 1US$ of wealth
7
Developing
kg CO2 / US$ (2000 prices)
6
Transition
5
EU 15
4
Other OECD
Oil Exporting
3
2
1
Ukraine
Russia
China
South Africa
India
Qatar
Poland
Pakistan
UAE
Libya
Lithuania
Australia
Namibia
USA
Greece
Botswana
Brazil
Netherlands
Germany
Italy
UK
Denmark
France
Norway
Sweden
Switzerland
0
It is graphs like this that President Bush uses to justify his stance – he
is thinking in terms of carbon intensity – not total carbon emissions.
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The Carbon Challenge
• The background of the problem
• How does the UK compare with other countries
• How do we tackle the challenge
– Reduce Energy Use
• Energy Efficiency vs Energy Conservation
• Technical Solutions
• Awareness Raising
– Promote renewable Energy technologies
– Carbon Footing Issues – to check how we are getting on
• Conclusions
19
The Carbon Challenge
– Reduce Energy Use
• Energy Efficiency vs Energy Conservation
• Technical Solutions
– Improved insulation
– Energy Efficient Appliances
– Low Energy Lighting
– More advanced technical solutions
• Awareness Raising
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Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Issues
Electricity Generation
Largest loss in
Power Station
Overall efficiency ~ 35%
Diagram illustrates situation with coal, oil, or nuclear
Gas Generation is more efficient - overall ~ 45%
Use Electricity wisely where we have a choice
21
21
Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Issues
Combined Heat and Power
Overall Efficiency - 73%
•Heat is rejected at ~ 90oC for supply to heat buildings.
•City Wide schemes are common in parts of Europe
22
22
Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Issues
Combined Heat and Power
•Pipes being laid in streets in Copenhagen
•Most towns in Denmark have city wide schemes such as these
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23
Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
Micro CHP plant for homes are being trialled.
They replace the normal boiler
But there is a problem in summer as there is limited demand for
heat.
Backup generation is still needed unless integrated with solar
photovoltaic?
Micro CHP
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Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
The Heat Pump
Heat supplied
to house
High Temperature
High Pressure
Condenser
Throttle
Valve
Compressor
Evaporator
Heat extracted
from outside
Low Temperature
Low Pressure
Any low grade source of heat may be used
• Typically coils buried in garden
• Bore holes
• Example of roof solar panel (Look East: Tuesday)
A heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as
electricity put in.
We are working with thermodynamics not against it.
25
The Carbon Challenge
– Reduce Energy Use
• Energy Efficiency vs Energy Conservation
• Technical Solutions
– Improved insulation
– Energy Efficient Appliances
– Low Energy Lighting
– More advanced technical solutions
• Awareness Raising
26
On average each person in UK
causes the emission of 9 tonnes
of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9
tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per
year.
Around 4 million over Norfolk.
In the developing world, the
average is under 1 balloon per
person
Is this Fair?
"Nobody made a greater
mistake than he who did
nothing because he thought he
could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
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Raising Awareness
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this
appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances
60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons
at a cost of over £6 per year
•
Filling up with petrol (~£41 for a full tank – 40 litres)
--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
At Gao’an
No 1one
Primary
School
in Xuhui
Shanghaicar (e.g.
How
far does
have
to drive
in aDistrict,
small family
1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as
heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
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The Behavioural Dimension
• Household size has little
impact on electricity
consumption.
Electricity Consumption
Average kWh/month
1200
1000
• Consumption varies by up to
a factor of 9 for any given
household size.
800
600
400
• Allowing for Income still
shows a range of 6 or more.
200
0
0
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1
2
3
4
No. people
5
6
7
• Education/Awareness is
important
29
The Carbon Challenge
• The background of the problem
• How does the UK compare with other countries
• How do we tackle the challenge
– Reduce Energy Use
• Energy Efficiency vs Energy Conservation
• Technical Solutions
• Awareness Raising
– Promote renewable Energy technologies
– Carbon Footing Issues – to check how we are getting on
• Conclusions
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Wind Energy in East Anglia
Between Dec 2006 and Nov
2007
Swaffham 1 Wind Turbine had
a Load Factor of 25.5%
Swaffham 2 had a load factor
of 27.8%
Scroby Sands had a Load factor
of 25.8% but nevertheless
produced sufficient electricity
for 60% needs of houses in
Norwich
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Performance of Local Wind Farms: Dec 2006 – Nov 2007
70%
60%
Load Factor
50%
Scroby
Blood Hill
West Somerton
Swaffham 1
North Pickenham
Swaffham 2
Gulliver
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
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Annual Performance of Local Wind Farms:
Dec 2006 – Nov 2007
40%
35%
Load Factor
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Gulliver
Swaffham 2
North
Pickenham
Swaffham 1
West Somerton
Blood Hill
Scroby
0%
Overall Average Load Factor for Norfolk and Suffolk: 26.98%
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Involve the local Community
• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for
a wind turbine.
• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity
needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.
• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are
now reaping the reward.
• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by
2015.
34
Micro
Wind
Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint: Micro
Wind
This device has a load factor of ~ 20.9% in
Orkney generating around 10000 kWh per
year. (6000 – 12000 claimed by
manufactuer)
The average house in Norwich uses 3700
kWh per year – in rural areas it is 5000
kWh
In East Anglia the performance is between
1000 and 3000 kWh (data for 2007)
despite being above manufacturers
minimum wind speed. Average Load
factor in East Anglia is only 4.9%
compared to 26.98% for large machines
35
Involve the local Community
Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.
The Parish Kirk, and Community
Centre are heated by heat Pumps
partly powered by Wind Turbines
Waste cooking oil from other islands is
processed into biodiesel for farm and
other vehicles.
Load Factor 2007 - 20.9%
Ethanol used in process is obtained
from fermentation of harvested sea
weed
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Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint: Micro Wind
While these device are now available, and at least one manufacturer
claims (or at least did claim) you could get “cash back” of up to
£50, in 2007, none of the devices in UK appear to have generated
sufficient to even trigger the basic threshold.
37
Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
Solar Thermal Energy
Solar
Pump
Normal hot water
circuit
Solar
Circuit
38
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Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
Solar Thermal Energy
Solar Collectors installed
27th January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
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Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
Solar Thermal Energy
Solar Gain (kWh/day)
9
December
February
April
June
August
October
December
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Solar Hot Water
0
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2006 - 07
10 20 30 9 19 29 8 18 28 10 20 30 9 19 29 9 19 29 8 18 28 8 18 28 7 17 27 6 16 26 6 16 26 5 15 2520075 - 0815 1 11 21 31 10
kWh / day
Solar Gain (kWh)
8
January
March
May
July
September
November
Day of Month
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov
40
Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
Solar Photovoltaic
41
It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?
House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February
House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles
with Solar Panels
- less than 15,000 people live north
of this in UK!
42
The Carbon Challenge
• The background of the problem
• How does the UK compare with other countries
• How do we tackle the challenge
– Reduce Energy Use
• Energy Efficiency vs Energy Conservation
• Technical Solutions
• Awareness Raising
– Promote renewable Energy technologies
– Carbon Footing Issues – to check how we are getting on
–
Are we making the best choices?
• Conclusions
43
Personal Attitudes to Energy Use can be significant
44
Case 1
Add extra
200mm Loft
insulation
Saving 1.7%
Fit cavity
insulation – no
change of Loft
Insulation
saves 29.0%
Case 2
Add extra
200mm Loft
insulation
Saving 2.4%
Fit condensing
boiler – no
change of Loft
Insulation
saves 20.1%
Social Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change
47
Social Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change
16000
14000
Lighting
12000
Refrigeration
10000
Entertainment
Miscellaneous
8000
Air/Public Travel
6000
Washing/Drying
4000
Private Car
2000
Heating
0
1
48
Conclusions
650 m
Our Wasteful Society
We behave as though we call in the
RAF
The Heat Pump is the analogy with the
crane
21 m
273 m
Conclusions
• We have difficult choices to make
• Reduce Energy we use
• Integrated approach to renewables
• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of
whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
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Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?
"If you do not change direction, you may end up
where you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
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