Transcript Panmao_Climatechange-impact

Overview of the Impacts, Vulnerability
and Adaptation of Climate Change
for Agriculture in China
Zhai Panmao
China Meteorological Administration
Outline
1
Observed Climate Changes
2
Projections
3
Impact
4
Vulnerability
5
Adaptation
Observed Climate Changes
Change in Mean SAT in the world and China
Anomalies of temperature
Global
China
（Global curve come from HadCRUTv3，Chinese
curve was retraced by Shaowu Wang（1998））
The updated 100-year linear trend of 0.74 [0.56-0.92]°C. The linear
warming trend over the last 50 years is 0.13 [0.10 to 0.16]°C per decade)
which is nearly twice that for the last 100 years.
Trends in annual mean temperature over China
during the last 50 years
Whole China Mean Precipitation Anomalies
120
Anomalies
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
20
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
Percentage Anomalies
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
Trends in Annual Precipitation during 1951-2000
F Filled (open) circles 10%, 5% increase (decrease)
X Significant at the 5% level
50
40
30
20
80
90
100
110
120
130
Annual precipitation in North
China (trend: -19mm/10a)
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Annual precipitation in
Northeast China (trend: -13mm/10a)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Some extreme events have become stronger
and more frequent
precipitation
temperature
Heavy
precipitation
events have
increased
over most
land area
over the last
50 years.
Hot days,
warm
nights
and heat
weaves
have
become
more
frequent.
drought
Drought
last longer,
and have
become
heavier
and more
widespread.
Tropical cyclone
Intensity of
tropical
cyclone,
including
typhoon
and
hurricane,
become
stronger.
Trends in number of extreme precipitation days
derived from 95th percentile
More
Extreme
events
Variation of percentage area of droughts
calculated by using Palmer Index
N
50
NE
WNW
N
ENW
40
Tibet
E
SW
30
S
20
80
90
100
110
120
130 E
Drought Stricken Crop Area (104 hectare) in China
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
年份
0
-500
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
1949-1999年中国干旱灾害统计直方图
1949-1999年中国干旱灾害统计直方图
Variation of Frost days in China
15
10
0
-5
-10
年
1996
1991
1986
1981
1976
1971
1966
1961
1956
-15
1951
日
5
Projections
Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation
Model projections of surface warming
6.4℃
Year 2000 constant concentrations
Global surface warming
20thcentury
1.1℃
( IPCC AR4, 2007 )
在多个温室气体排放情景下，本世纪末全球平均升温幅度大致为1.1－6.4℃。
对于低排放情景（B1），升温为1.1－2.9℃，对于高排放情景（A1FI），升温为
2.4－6.4℃。
Multi-model projected patterns of
precipitation change
DJF
JJA
Since the TAR there is an improving understanding of projected patterns of
precipitation. Increasing in the amount of precipitation are very likely in highlatitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions.
（中国气象局国家气候中心）
Temperature is going to increase
Projection of SAT in China up to 2100
（粗黑线表示观测值，王绍武，龚道溢提供；粗红线表示GG平均；
粗杏黄线表示GS平均；粗褐线表示A2, B2平均；粗黄线表示NCC/IAPT63）
（中国气象局国家气候中心）
Precipitation increases in future 100years
21 Century Precipitation Project
using several IPCC models based on 4
different scenarios
Projects of China’s annual mean surface air
temperature and precipitation
（relative to 1980-1999 average）
Project of surface temperature
2020
2030
2050
2100
0.5-0.7℃ 0.6-1.0℃ 1.2-2.0℃ 2.2-4.2℃
Projection of annual precipitation
• To 2020, precipitation in China is projected to
increase slightly
• To 2050, precipitation increase 2-5%
• To the end of 21century, precipitation is projected to
raise 6-14%
Project of climate extremes (IPCC)
difficult to grasp frequency, intensity
and regional distribution of extremes
Tropical cyclones (including
typhoon and hurricane) ↑
Frequency of heavy
rainfall ↑
Extreme high temperature,
heat wave ↑
In the future 100 years, the frequency of
some extreme events is likely to increase in
China.
China will face more significant extremes, such as
droughts, floods, extreme temperature events.
The frequency, intensity and extent of extremes,
such as droughts and floods and agricultural
plant disease and insect pests relevant to climate
will aggregate. Moreover, that will also aggregate
water supply.
Impacts
Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
Observed Impacts of
Climate Change on
Agriculture
Negative impacts (main)
Agriculture loss
caused by weather
disaster, especially
regional high
temperature, drought
and spring frost, were
aggravated. Stability
of agriculture
production decreased.
Positive impacts
With increased mean
temperature over a
suitable range, the
north boundary of
winter wheat obviously
extended northward
and westward in NE
China; the planting
area of late planting
corn expanded.
Impacts of climate change on agricultural
production
On regulation of planting and
layout of crop
B
On invest of agri.
means of production
On agricultural yield
and quality
A
On agricultural
biological hazard
C
E
D
On agro-met
extremes
Impact on agricultural yield and quality
In high latitude regions, if temperature increasing 1-3 ℃,
the products of agriculture are predicted to raise slightly.
In low latitude regions, especially in seasonal dry regions
and tropical areas, temperature will be raising 1-2 ℃, the
products of agriculture will also decline.
Without adaptation, plant production to 2030 is likely to
reduce 5-10%, especially for wheat, rice and corn.
Production output will reduce 5-10% until 2030 if
no adaptive measurements taken.
(cause: temperature rises, flood and drought
aggravates, water shortage )
60%
Increase Decrease
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
灌溉夏玉米
夏玉米
灌溉春玉米
春玉米
晚稻
早稻
单季稻
灌溉春小麦
春小麦
灌溉冬小麦
冬小麦
For Wheat, Rice and Corn in China
Impact on regulation of planting and layout
of crop
When annul mean temperature raise 1℃, the day with
≥10℃ accumulated temperature extend 15days and the
north boundary of planting obviously extended
northward.
Will lead to large area of two cropping system into three
cropping system; and the north boundary of two
cropping system extend northward.
The layout of main crop will change significantly. The
winter wheat will be likely replaced by other types in
North China; Southern rice varieties gradually extend
northward; Early maturing variety of corn will be
replaced by middle-late season variety in the Northeast.
Impact on agricultural means of
production
to resist and cure disease, insects and the cost of
agricultural fertilizer.
With temperature raising, the area of planting disease
and pest insects spread，and its growing season extend,
thus planting suffer greatly.
Global warming, available nitrogen release much.
Impact on agro-met extremes
Extreme events are the great enemy for agriculture
product and food security. Annual gross loss is excess
to 50 billion kilograms and might be greater in future.
The main extreme events causing yield reduction are
drought, flood, hurricane and low temperature.
Drought
High
temperatures
Extremes
Flood
Water Shortage
Drought
The most damage caused by aggravating drought leads
annual loss reach to 30 billion kilograms, taking 60%
gross loss.
Flood
Aggravating flood takes the second place to cause
great yield reduction, almost it take up 25%.
Yangtze river basin as a high production area,
nearly 1/3 counties are high vulnerable.
High temperatures
Will lead to extremes correlating to
temperature aggravating; that’s negative to
grain production.
Water Shortage
Global warming water shortage (1%)
irrigation area↓（1%） grain yield↓(7.5
billion kg)
Water shortage is the main restrictive factor to
agricultural production, especially in north China
and northeast China.
Impacts on agricultural biological hazard
Weather condition and extremes can lead to major
diseases and pests of corps.
Climate change lead to biological hazard aggravating,
that is likely to cause more serious agricultural problems
if no adaptation.
Aggravating agricultural biological hazard, annual loss
of crops gets to 30 billion kg.
Area of main crops’ diseases and pests expanding,
frequency raising and hazard aggravating.
Potential production of planting is likely to reduce in future.
It might reduce 5~10% to 2030; And the decreasing rage
might be more than 1 time to 2071~2100.
Climate change is worse in future 100y, extreme events
are more frequent, that leads to main crops’ yield
reduction.
Temperature raising 1 degree, yield reduces 10 percents.
Observed impacts on forest
human disturbance dominates, only
in regions with less active human
Coverage Area
Tree Species
activity where climate change impact
can be identified …
Spatial Distribution
Lower boundary of forest belt the in Qilian mountain
raised from 1900m to 2300m. The area reduced
16.5%, coverage rate reduced by 10% in the past
decades .
Coverage rate
（中国气候与环境演变科学报告，2005）
Forest coverage reduced！
Only 16.55% in the end of 21st
Impact on forest in future
Forest vegetation zone extend northward;
The area of deciduous needle-leaf forest ↓
Future
Climate:
Warming;
Spatial
distribution
of humidity
change
Deciduous broad-leaved forest ↑
Type: southern  northern
The alpine meadow ↓;
Tropical savanna/evergreen coniferous forest↑
Frequency and area of forest fire disaster↑
Coverage and degree of forest diseases
and insect pests ↑
Impact on China’s Fishery
Climate change
Fishery
production is
very sensitive to
climate change.
Current, SST
fishing ground,
fishing season
fishery
production
Climate change The output and catch of the main
economic species in China’s four sea areas—the Bohai Sea, the
Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea ↓
Impact on fishery production in the
future
It is projected that by 2030-2050, fish production will
likely to reduce 5-15%, and fish catch decrease by 18%, based on CO2 increase rate of 1% per year.
Vulnerability
Vulnerability of climate change on
agriculture in China
China is a country of monsoon climate and frequently impact
by extreme weather. Climate change aggregates impact of
climate variability and extremes. Agriculture is expected to
experience more negative impacts and greater losses.
In addition, China’s agriculture is limited by economy and
deficient agricultural investments, thus leads to vulnerable
to extremes and risks of climate change.
The future, the discrepancy of vulnerability in regions will
enlarge. There exist obviously high vulnerable regions in China.
Vulnerable areas of agriculture to climate
change
南海诸岛
0
0: not vulnerable;
1
2
3
4
5
1～5：vulnerability varies from low to high
Vulnerability of rain-fed and irrigating
wheat
雨养
脆弱等级
强度脆弱
中度脆弱
轻微脆弱
不脆弱
无数据
灌溉
脆弱等级
强度脆弱
中度脆弱
轻微脆弱
不脆弱
无数据
Vulnerability of climate change on
agricultural system
Study on the Loess Plateau region indicates that the
vulnerability of climate change on agricultural product is
higher than that on central-east part of northern Shanxi,
the south part of Ningxia Province, the eastern part of
central Gansu Province and eastern Gansu Province.
Regions with higher vulnerability are always found to be
with severe natural conditions and poor economic
conditions.
Adaptation
Actively adjust agriculture structure, intensify management and
improve agricultural infrastructure; rely on new technology to
strengthen the ability to cope with and adapt to negative impact of
climate change; reduce to the least loss and get potential benefits.
Adjust the layout of agricultural crops
Develop modern biology and new technology
Improve management measurements of agriculture
Improve agricultural infrastructure and condition
Adjusting the layout of crops
Analyzing future new structure of distribution of light,
temperature, water source and agricultural weather
disasters; improving the layout of crop breeds.
Extending growth period may be good for crop production
in the north，so we should scientifically change the
planting regulation.
Developing modern biology and new
technology
To reduce negative impacts on agriculture, selecting breed is an
important adaptive countermeasure.
To develop new technology such as photosynthesis, biological
nitrogen fixation, biological technology, to resist adversity.
To develop adaptive and high quality new breed is a very
important method for agriculture to adaptive climate change.
Improving agricultural management
measures
Efficiently utilizing water resource, fortifying irrigation and
fertilization, prevention and cure plant disease and insect pests,
spreading ecology agricultural technology.
Advance the comprehensive technology of curing land
degrading and soil erosion to improve low middle yield field.
implement modern agricultural management, to decrease
agricultural product cost, increase land use rate and output
ratio, and promote technology of precise cultivation.
Improving agricultural infrastructure and
condition
Continually strengthen capacity of agricultural
ecosystem to face risks, and mitigate disaster.
The northern arid and semi-arid region likely tend to be drier.
One important adaptive measure is strengthening basic
construction of cropland, improving agricultural irrigation,
constructing high and stable yield croplands.
Developing modern agricultural production technology, and
strengthening capacity for natural disaster prevention.
Uncertainties and problems
 Projection of precipitation, and climate
extremes change in the future;
 Less knowledge on forestry and fishery
impacts
 New adaptation measures


Thanks!