Transcript Diapositive 1

IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGRADATION ON IVORIAN
ECONOMY
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PLAN
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1.
Introduction
2.
Deforestation, climate change and economic
impact in Côte d‘Ivoire
3.
Recommendations
4.
Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
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
Côte d’Ivoire is far from achieving the MDGs

Climate change is an additional challenge to achieve
the MDGs

The objective of this study is to highlight the potential
risks of climate change on the Ivorian economy.
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I VORIAN FOREST DISAPPEARS QUICKLY
Ivorian forest disappears quickly
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ANNUAL RAINFALL HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY
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AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURES HAS RISEN
SHARPLY
E CONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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
Brou (2005) shows that the average weight of fresh
cocoa beans during harvest depends on the
magnitude of the rainfall, and more generally on the
level of agro-climatic drought.

Climate variability have a significant effect on
agricultural production. Indeed, deteriorated weather
conditions can cause a decline of agricultural
production.

What is the impact of a decline of x% of agricultural
production throughout the economy?
METHODOLOGY
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
Construction of a Computable General Equilibrium Model

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) with 2006 as benchmark year is
divided into twenty-five (23) accounts as follows:
2 accounts for factors of production: capital and labor;
4 accounts of economic agents: households, businesses,
government, rest of world;
7 accounts for taxes and state grants: Grants / production taxes
on income and assets, non-deductible VAT, taxes on imports
excluding VAT, excise duties and export taxes, other indirect
taxes products, other taxes / Producer
3 branch accounts : agriculture , industry, services;
3 accounts of composite products: agricultural product,
industrial product, services product;
3 accounts of product external trade: agricultural product,
industrial product, merchant services
1 accumulation account.
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
The choice of functional forms and formulation of equations is
essentially based on the model EXTER 2 of Decaluwé, Martens and
Savard (2001)
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Main hypothesis of the model:

Factors of production are substitutable according to a CobbDouglas relationship,

There is a perfect complement to Leontief,

Consumers have a utility function Cobb-Douglas

The labor is perfectly mobile between the industries of production
and capital is specific to each industry of service production

Factors of production are internationally immobile

Domestic producers face export demand to price elasticity over
MAIN RESULTS
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Impact of a decrease of 10% of agricultural production
with Computable General Equilibrium Model
Variable
Initial
Simulated
Gap
GDP (billion,
CFA)
9037
8133
-1%
Agriculture
labor demand
193,31
185,62
-4%
RECOMMENDATIONS
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
Effective implementation of the National Reforestation
Programme: the results achieved since 1926 (nearly
300,000 ha of plantations carried out) are still largely
insufficient to cover the deficit of 6% (2 million ha) of
forest cover

Adoption of incentives for the development of
community reforestation
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Creation of a Forest Department in the National Centre
for Agronomic Research (NCAR) to revive the activities
of the Forest Research
CONCLUSION
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
Côte d'Ivoire is an agricultural country (agricultural
sector represent around 30% of GDP)

Significant degradation of its forest resources are
significantly degradated , and contribute to increase
climate variability and change.

A negative impact on agricultural production due
mainly to bad weather has a significant influence on
the country's wealth and reducing poverty.

Bring the Ivorian forest coverage rate to a level higher
than 20%, essential to the ecological balance and
economic development of the country.
THANK YOU
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