Transcript Climate Change and Development

Climate Change and Development:
Challenges and Opportunities and the
role of the Private Sector
Dra. Bárbara Oliveira
British Institute of International
and Comparative Law
17 October 2008
1 – Climate Change and
Development
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Climate Change will prevent many countries from achieving the
Millennium Development Goals and from improving human
development indicators.
Article 3.4 UNFCCC – Right to sustainable development.
Climate policies may impact – positively and negatively – on
development.
Development policies may have the same effect on climate change.
Both developing and developing countries need to seek a low carbon
development path, urgently.
Mainstreaming climate change concerns into development policies:
Integrated approach to economical, social and environmental issues.
Climate Change as a Risk, an economic problem and a horizontal
issue.
2 – Development First
Policies
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Developing countries consumption and emissions per capta
are low. Non-climate polices may be more effective, such as
population control, poverty eradication, pollution reductions,
and energy security.
Energy and Energy Efficiency: 2.5 billion people in a situation
of energy precariousness.
Transportation: Public Policy may influence technology and
costs for transportation and reduce travel distances and GHG
emissions.
Agriculture and Forestry: Agriculture intensification policies
may increase the productivity of cultivated land thus lowering
the pressure on forests. Migration and increased deforestation
can notwithstanding take place.
3 – Climate First Policies
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Energy Efficiency: Energy efficiency can be achieved in
every sector - industry, buildings, fuels, transportation.
Transportation: Fuel switch (to a lower carbon option, eg.
biofuels) is both an energy and a transportation policy.
Agriculture and Forestry: Afforestation and avoided
deforestation may promote local communities, reduce
wasteland and soil degradation and contribute to water
management. Cropland, grazing land, and livestock
management may promote the environmental health of
ecosystems and water quality, and reduce desertification
and improve wellbeing.
4 - Global cost curve of GHG
reduction opportunities
Cost of abatement
EUR/tCO2e
40
20
0
Smart transit
Small hydro
Industrial non-CO2
Airplane efficiency
Stand-by losses
1
2
3
4
Industrial
feedstock substitution
Livestock/
soils
Nuclear
5
6
7
-20
Sugarcane
biofuel
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
-140
8
10
11
Cellulose Industrial
ethanol
non-CO2
Fuel efficient vehicles
Water heating
Air Conditioning
Lighting systems
9
Wind;
low
pen.
CCS EOR;
New coal
Forestation
12
13
14
Soil
Forestation
CCS;
coal
retrofit
Avoid
deforestation
Asia
Waste
Coal-togas shift
Solar
15
Co-firing
biomass
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CCS;
new coal
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Avoided
deforestation
America
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Industrial
motor
systems
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27
Industrial
CCS
Abatement potential by 2030
GtCO2e/year
Fuel efficient
commercial
vehicles
Insulation improvements
-160
Source: McKensey
5 – Mainstreming Climate
Concerns
"… changing development paths will be critical to addressing
mitigation and the scale of effort required is unlikely to be
forthcoming from the environmental sector on its own. If
climate policy on its own will not solve the climate problem,
future research on climate change mitigation and sustainable
development will need to focus increasingly on development
sectors. A better understanding is needed of how countries
might get from current development trajectories onto lowercarbon development paths - how to make development more
sustainable“ (AR4 IPCC)
6 – Challenges
a)
b)
c)
Proving to the private sector that costs of
abatement are sometimes negative
Forestry projects and developing countries
– What is the space for voluntary projects
and other non-CDM initiatives? Ex. Brazil
Energy efficiency standards, energy policies
and national security. Incentives for first
comers, followers and laggards?
7 – The Private Sector
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The private sector objective:
- Make profit at whatever cost? OR
- Create value for shareholders? AND
- Remain in the market for as long as possible?
What incentives exist for clean investment in developing
countries? Negative incentives provided by Kyoto (CDM),
Investment Rules, Trade rules.
Assessing risks to businesses derived from climate
change
Importance of Sectoral Benchmarks.
8 – Case Studies: Brazil
33 Asset Management – Private Equity Fund:
Investment in electricity generation from biomass
(crop residues), biogas generation from biodigestors,
with other byproducts such as fertilizers and carbon
credits.
Importance for developing countries: Projects which a
strong business model, which promote development
and environmental protection, energy security and
may be fairly easily replicated.
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9 – Future Prospectives
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What can be expected in terms of regulation: locally,
regionally, internationally? (level of coordination X level of
commitment – high x low)
What incentives will be put in place by/in developing
countries to foster a development lower in carbon for its
industries and productive sectors?
How to improve transparency and knowledge sharing at
developing countries national level so that consensus
building can be firstly developed at home?
What are the main barriers: cultural, economic and
regulatory to be faced by developing countries and their
industries regarding climate change?
Thank You!
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