Transcript Bill Grace, GHD Pty Ltd., Manager Sustainability Services

Impacts of Climate Change:
Infrastructure in South West WA
Bill Grace
Climate Change in South Western Australia
Perth
Now
2030
2070
Annual average
max.
temperature (ºC)
23.3
24.3 + 0.7
26.3 + 2.2
Dec-Feb days
above 35ºC
15
19 + 3
29 + 10
Annual rainfall
(mm)
869
800 + 105
660 + 310
Annual moisture
balance (mm)
-882
-960 + 45
-1125 + 155
The Impacts on Infrastructure
• Direct Damage
• Rising sea levels
• Storm damage
• Flooding
• Indirect Effects
• Power
• Water
Sea Level Rise
“It is highly likely that coastal erosion due to long-term
sea level rise associated with global warming will
have a significant impact on Australia’s coastal
systems, and any associated infrastructure, over the
next century.”
Natural Hazard Risk in Perth, Western Australia
Geoscience Australia 2005
Sea Level Rise
• An increase in global temperatures will result in a sea level rise
of 0.09 to 0.88 m between 1990 and 2100, with a central value
of 0.48 m.
• Over the next 50 years the projected global sea level rise is 0.05
to 0.32 m, with a central value of 0.18 m
IPCC, 2001
Perth Coastal Plain - Erosion
•
•
•
•
The majority of the Perth coastal region is not at risk of significant
erosion.
• At three localities (Port/South Beach, Swanbourne Beach, Pinaroo
Point), however, are prone to erosion from storms and sea level
rise, resulting in significant risk to urban development.
Bunbury to Mandurah sector appears to be most susceptible to coastal
erosion over the next century.
The Hillarys to Yanchep sector does not appear to be susceptible to
erosion over the next century.
The Cape Naturaliste to Bunbury sector may be impacted by coastal
erosion associated with long-term sea level rise.
Storm Damage
• Tropical cyclones
• Preferred paths and poleward extent may alter, but changes
remain uncertain. If they were to travel further poleward they
would be more likely to impact on coastal regions in southwest Western Australia, southern Queensland and
northern NSW.
• Storms
• Climate models also indicate a future decrease in the
number of storm centres over southern Australia but an
increase in their intensity.
Power Supply
• Likely impacts on electricity generation from climate change:
• warming by 1 ºC can lead to a 3% decrease in thermal
efficiency in some facilities, and a decrease in transmission
line efficiency
• changes in demand, especially affecting peak generation
capacity required for air conditioning
• The effect of higher temperatures is likely to be considerably
greater on peak energy demand than on net demand,
suggesting that there will be a need to install additional
generating capacity over and above that needed to cater for
underlying economic growth.
Water Supplies
Gnangara Mound Depletion
Projected Demand
Insurance
• There is growing concern in the insurance industry about the
potential for large rises in insurance claims as a result of climate
change. This could result in:
• higher premiums,
• restricted coverage or
• withdrawal of insurance from areas of high risk,
• potentially resulting in significant economic and social
ramifications.
Mitigation Strategies
•
•
•
•
•
The Institution of Engineers, Australia [2000] identified marine climate
change and its effect on the coastal zone as the most important
research priority for coastal and ocean engineering in Australia;
All infrastructure providers with physical assets (transport, power,
water, telecoms etc) need to consider climate change impacts in risk
management strategies (including insurance);
WAPC and Local Government in the south west need to include sea
level rise in their planning schemes and coastal management
strategies;
Changing patterns of energy demand to be taken into account in power
generation;
• Adaptation - building design / retrofit to reduce A/C demand
Water supply planning already taking climate change into account
• Adaptation - water use efficiencies and climate insensitive sources
• Stewardship of groundwater resources