Transcript overview of climate change

CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE OR EXTREME WEATHER IMPACTS AND PREDICTIBILITY
CLIMATE CHANGE OR EXTREME WEATHER IMPACT
ON HUMAN SETTLEMENT AND LAND USE
by
Mohamed Jamil Bin Ahmad
Suraya Dato Badaruddin
Research and Development Division
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE - (IPCC)
•
Regional
and
global
changes in temperature
•
Precipitation and other
climate variables resulting
in global changes in soil
moisture
•
An increase in global
mean sea level and
prospects for more severe
extreme
high
–
temperature events, floods
and droughts in some
place.
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE - (IPCC)
•
Mean annual global surface
temperature will increase by
1-3.40 C by 2100
•
Global mean sea level will
rise by 15-95 cm
•
Changes in the spatial and
temporal patterns .
•
Average rate of warming
probably would be greater
than any in the past 10,000
years
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
FOUR SECTORS WHICH ARE VULNERABLE TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Hydrology and Water
Resources
• Food and Fiber
Production
• Coastal Systems
• Human Health
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS ON ASIA
REGION INCLUDING MALAYSIA
•
Negative impact on the viability
of freshwater , wetlands
•
increases in sea-surface
temperature
•
Coral reefs suffer bleaching
•
Additional stress on water
resources.
•
Vulnerability of agricultural areas
to episodic environmental
hazards, including floods,
droughts and cyclones.
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
IMPACT ON HUMAN SETTLEMENT AND
LAND USE
The report concluded that
potential direct effects of
climate change include
changes in:• water availability,
• crop yields
• inundation of coastal areas
• indirect effects on food
security and human
health.
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
DISASTER PROFILE OF MALAYSIA
• Climate change has contributed
to natural disasters such as
epidemic, flood., wave/surge,
wild fires and wind storm.
• 49 cases of natural disaster
events were reported from
December 1965 to January
2007.
• Total number of 1062 people
were killed in the event while
total people affected
was
1,235907 people .
• Total
damage
loss
estimated US155,000.
was
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
No. of
Events
Killed
Total Affected
Damage US
$(000s)
Epidemic
10
406
10,363
0
Flood
30
282
1,161,650
140,400
Wave/surge
1
80
5,063
14,600
Wild Fires
2
0
3,000
0
Wind Storm
6
294
55,831
0
Type Of Natural
Disaster
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
IMPACTS ON HUMAN SETTLEMENT AND LAND
USE IN MALAYSIA
• Impacts on the environment among others include loss
of important species and cleaning up of the environment
• Impacts on social occurs when disasters affect the
social well being of the people through loss of human
lives, property and source of income
• Impact on the economy include cost of rehabilitation,
cost for displacement of people to new shelter homes,
reconstruction cost for new bridges, roads, houses other
and utilities
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Estimated Damage and Losses from tsunami impact in Kota Kuala Muda and Penang Island in 2004
Kota Kuala Muda
Damage items
Fishermen (affected)
Qty
≈1000
Pulau Pinang
Value (RM)
-
Qty
Value (RM)
653
20,000
10,000
2733
Houses *
Destroyed/loss
Damage
113
398
30,000-40,000
10,000-15,000
Transport
Car/van/lorry
Motorcycle
Bicycle
198
507
315
4.14m
1.52m
10,000
52.3 ha
160,000
34
404
2.72 m
10.1m
102
1059
8.16m
26.5m
1
40,000
41
1.56m
67
4
1
7
13.8m
Paddy field
Fishing Vessel**
Big
Small
Jetty
Fishing equipments
Aquaculture
Marine cage
Brackishwater pond
Freshwater pond
Raft platforms (Cockles/oyster)
4.33
11
2
Na
Na
*value for house losses is in RM/house (survey)
*include South Pulau Pinang, Seberang Perai and Teluk Bahang
** Losses for small and big boat was expected top reach about RM25,000 and RM8000 per unit respectively (based on survey).
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Population growth and climate change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change viewed
that population demands increase pressures to :a) Change of land from its natural state
will increase pressures on less intensively
managed habitats, biodiversity and
ecosystems and increasing atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide as
forests are converted to other land uses
b) Intensive land uses could increase soil
erosion and farther degrade water quality
and farther degrade water quality,
c) Convert agricultural and other
lands
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Potential Impacts Of Climate Change Impacts In
Malaysia
Predictions on climate change impacts in Malaysia by international
organization outlines the following:
 Sea levels will rise to 15-95 cm in a
hundred years.
 Crop yields will drop with
marginalisation of drought-prone
areas and flooding out of >100,000 ha
 Greater diseases among forest
species and biodiversity loss.
 Overall water availability will
decrease and intensity of floods will
increase.
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Potential Impacts Of Climate Change Impacts In
Malaysia
Predictions on climate change impacts in Malaysia by international
organization outlines the following:
 Coastal areas will suffer tidal
inundation, shoreline erosion,
increased wave action and saline
intrusion.
 Adverse health impacts more heat
stress, respiratory diseases, food
and water borne diseases as well as
those vector-borne.
 Operational and maintenance costs
of electricity generation will increase
especially in coastal areas. Oil and
gas platforms will be also liable
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
•
Prediction on water availability issues marked some pertinent
points which need to be addressed by policy makers and
planners
•
water availability assessment projected National Water
Resources Study (NWRS, 2000)
Water Demand By Sector
WATER SUPPLY DEMAND (Mld)
DEMAND
1998
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Domestic
Mld
5,022
5,558
8,184
10,582
12,622
14,388
16,176
Industrial
Mld
3,453
3,985
7,101
9,756
11,863
13,743
15,452
Domestic
and
industrial
Mld
8,475
9,543
15,285
20,338
24,485
28,131
31,628
Irrigation
Mld
20,139
20,139
17,875
17,857
16,802
16,802
16,802
Total
Demand
Mld
28.614
29,682
33,142
39,195
41,287
44,933
48,430
Mld : megalitres per day Source : National Water Resources Study, 2000
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Water Supply and Demand
WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN EACH STATE (Mld)
STATE
1995
1997
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
PERLIS
78
85
90
123
153
187
226
265
KEDAH
705
747
791
1084
1397
1746
2129
2517
PENANG
604
641
750
1004
1260
1483
1696
1884
PERAK
977
1038
1142
1567
1880
2292
2700
3068
SELANGOR
1925
2421
3039
5490
7528
8307
8614
8791
NEGRI
SEMBILAN
358
384
493
665
826
1003
1169
1341
MALACCA
230
272
336
572
777
946
1097
1219
JOHOR
1107
1224
1398
2079
2780
3429
4062
4687
PAHANG
429
615
735
1188
1640
2261
2918
3584
TERENGGANU
290
327
541
1082
1353
1677
1983
2269
KELANTAN
171
182
228
431
744
1154
1537
2003
PENINSULAR
MALAYSIA
6,87
4
7,935
9,543
15,285
20,338
24,485
28,141
31,628
7.7
6.8
6.0
3.3
2.0
1.5
1.2
ANNUAL
INCREASE
%
Mld : mega litres per day
Source : National Water Resources Study, 2000
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Projected Water Availability for the Country
Negeri
Perlis
Population and water availability per kapita (m3
per year)
Population
Water Availability Per kapita
Kedah
Population
Water Availability Per kapita
Pulau Pinang
Population
Water Availability Per kapita
Perak
Population
Water Availability Per kapita
Selangor
(termasuk W.P)
Population
Negeri Sembilan
Population
Water Availability Per kapita
Water Availability Per kapita
Melaka
Population
Water Availability Per kapita
Johor
Population
Water Availability Per kapita
Pahang
Population
Water Availability Per kapita
Terengganu
Population
Water Availability Per kapita
Kelantan
Population
Water Availability Per kapita
Peninsular
Malaysia
Population
Water Availability Per kapita
Tahun
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
273,496
317,598
358,897
395,356
424,235
1,499
1,291
1,142
1,037
966
1,915,954
2,256,721
2,585,680
2,890906
3,153,265
3,993
3,390
2,959
2,646
2,426
1,296,997
1,527899
1,635,677
1,722,161
1,782,765
1,339
1,224
1,143
1,086
1,049
2,408,821
2,712,847
3,002,322
3,251,076
3,442,320
8,465
7,516
6,791
6,272
5,923
6,082,576
7,346853
8,413,569
9,275,975
9,903,683
2,241
1,855
1,620
1,469
1,376
1,023,455
1,178,000
1,322,192
1,446,033
1,540,814
938
815
726
664
623
696,508
796,034
885,050
957,818
1,009,024
1,263
1,105
994
919
872
3,495,129
4,237,774
4,968,374
5,685,711
6,335,996
5,985
4,939
4,211
3,679
3,302
1,731,648
2,14,9809
2,601,248
3,076,598
3,553,199
22,649
18,243
15,077
12,748
11,038
1,340,934
1,664,915
2,021,152
2,390,080
2,753,044
17,987
14,487
11,934
10,092
8,761
1,980.193
2,466,318
3,000,583
3,551,854
4,092,242
11,251
9,034
7,425
6,273
5,444
22,345,711
26,652765
30,794834
3,464,0568
37,990,582
6,817
5,715
4,947
4,397
4,010
Source : National Water Resources Study, 2000
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Hyogo Framework For Action 2005
Land-use planning and other technical measures Incorporate
disaster risk assessments into the urban planning and
management
• Incorporate disaster risk assessments into
the urban planning and management
• Mainstreaming disaster risk considerations
into planning procedures for major infrastructure
projects
• Develop, upgrade and encourage the use of
guidelines and monitoring tools
• Incorporate disaster risk assessment into rural
development
• Encourage the revision of existing or the
development
of
new
building
codes,
standards, rehabilitation and reconstruction
practices at the national or local levels
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Adaptation Measures on Climate Change Impact
Through Land Use Planning by IPCC
•governments need to consider more intensive efforts to achieve
economically efficient and sustainable land use
•optimize socioeconomic welfare and growth subject to
environmental constraints and operate in concert with any strategies
that may be employ to limit the growth of greenhouse gases
•emphasis should be given to responses that remove barriers to
rapid and efficient adaptation, identify decisions with long term
consequences,
•maintain flexibility in resource use and management where possible
•limit costs and administrative burden
•promote public input and acceptance.
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Malaysia’s Respone
Integrated Planning and Resource Management System has
been incorporated into planning system in Malaysia
Town and Country Planning (Act 1976)
Three basic elements of the Act include planning
administrative system, development plan system and
development control system. The interpretation of Kyoto
Protocol through initiatives in reduction of climate change
impacts
through adapt ation measure
mentioned in
development policies and implementation of
existing
planning documents (NPP, NUP and development plans).
Under the Act, environmental aspects are promoted
through several provisions related to siting and zoning of
human settlements.
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Malaysia’s Respone
Integrated Planning and Resource Management System has
been incorporated into planning system in Malaysia
National Urbanisation Policy
The National Urbanisation Policy is centred on main
thrusts as mentioned below:
• An efficient and sustainable urban development
• An integrated and efficient urban transportation system
NUP promotes green building concept towards energy
saving and efficiency and promotes the
Hyogo
declaration initiatives through NUP 23.
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
National Physical Plan (Npp)
• It applies the Integrated Resource Planning and Management
System and Management System (IRPMS) where physical
planning and natural resources utilization will be integrated
within a management process towards achieving sustainable
development
• Salient points made under National
Physical Plan towards achieving
sustainable human development
include the following:
 To optimise utilisation
 To promote
 To secure spatial
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
 NPP 4 - Land and natural
resources of less development
regions shall be used in a
sustainable manner to increase
the productivity of these regions
and reduce imbalances
Perlis
State Pa rk
#
 NPP21 - Land development
in the highlands shall be
strictly controlled to
safeguard human safety and
environmental quality
 NPP 18 -Environmentally
Sensitive Areas (ESA) shall
be integrated in the
planning
Kangar
Pedu
Fore st R eserve
#
#
Alor Setar
Pu lau Payar
Kota Bharu
Pu lau Perhe ntian
U LU MUD A
FOR EST R ESER VE
Pu lau R eda ng
Royal Belum Forest
R es erve
#
George Town
#
Bintang Hijau
Forest Reserve
Kuala Terengganu
Temenggor
Lake
Ran tau Aba ng
Kenyir Lake
MATANG
FOR EST R ESER VE
#
Ipoh
South
China
Sea
Sung ai Betis
Fore st R eserve
National Park
Sung ai Ce ru l
Fore st R eserve
#
Straits
of
Malacca
Krau W ildlife
Re se rve
KU ALA SEL ANG OR N OR TH
PEAT SW AMP FO REST
TEMPL ER PARK
#
KL ANG ISLAN DS
CH IN I LAKE
SO UTH EAST PAH AN G
PEAT SW AMP FOR EST
Kena boi
Fore st R eserve
#
Kuantan
KUALA LUMPUR
Shah Alam
Be ra L ake
KU ALA LAN GAT NO RTH
PEAT SW AMP FOR EST
#
Pu lau Tio man
Seremban
Pula u
Pe man ggil
Endau Rompin
State Park
#
Pula u
Be sa r
Pu lau
Tin ggi
Pu lau
Sibu
Melaka
Klu an g
Fore st R eserve
Johor Bahru
#
Tanjo ng Piai
State Park
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Pu lau
Aur
Reduction of carbon emission through NPP
policies
 NPP 23 : In recognition of the inter
relationship between land use and transport
and
integrated
national
transportation
network shall be established
 NPP 27 : Transit Orientated Development
(TOD) concept shall be promoted as the
basis of urban land use planning and ensure
viability of public transport
 NPP 28 : In major
integrated
public
urban centres, an
transportation
system
shall be established
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
State Structure Plan
• (Section 8 (1). Act 172 also
specifies that Structure
Plan shall be a written
statement formulating the
state planning authority’s
policies and general proposals in respect of
the development
• Measures for the improvement of the physical
environment and the management of traffic.
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Local Plan
• Required under Section 12 (1) of Act 172, the District
Local Plan consist of a map and a written statement
which formulate in detail the development and use of
land of the whole district area
• Protection and improvement of the physical
environment, preservation of the natural topography,
improvement of the landscape and preservation and
planting of trees.
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Sustainability Assessment for Local Plan
Preparation
• Initiative to implement Sustainability
assessment (SA) in plan making process (local
plans).
• Taking into consideration of physical, economy,
environment, and social aspects in plan making
process.
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Planning Permission and Development Plan
Report
•
Section 19 (1) of Act 172 is relevant towards achieving
sustainability objectives at local level.
•
Allocation of land space, provision and distribution of
infrastructure and community facilities as well as their
contributions towards environmental improvement and
protection
•
Act 172 allows the Local Planning Authority to impose certain
planning conditions to further regulate the nature, type and
location development. Under section 21A, development
proposal report is required to obtain planning permission
•
Section 22 (Act A1129) ensure policies outlined at national
level are translated accordingly at local level. Under Sector 22
(2A) stated that any development which falls under the
following activities will need to be brought to the National
Physical Planning Council (NPPC)
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
The prescribed activities include: 1. The development of a new township for a population exceeding
ten thousand, or covering an area of more that one hundred
hectares, or both;
2. A development for the construction of any major infrastructure
or utility, or;
3. A development affecting hill tops or hill slopes in an area
designated as environmentally sensitive in a development plan
4. Development for the construction of major infrastructure or
utility which include

National infrastructure

National utility
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Planning Guidelines
• The FDTCP has currently
produced more than 40 planning
guidelines to assist local
authorities in development
approval process
• Planning guidelines for green
building has been incorporated
in housing planning guideline
towards reduction of energy use
and promote building with
energy saving (optimum housing
GP)
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
MURNI-net
Programme
Urban Governance
Promoting
Good
 Provides sustainable indicators
to monitor the achievement of
cities
towards
sustainable
development objectives.
 Developed
56
indicators
(urbanization rate, public health,
environmental condition).
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Land Use Planning Appraisal In Risk Areas
• To achieve safety and sustainability in land
use planning with effective disaster mitigation
strategies.
• To provide general guidelines for development
control in hazard prone areas and to provide
mitigation measures for the areas.
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Land Use Planning Appraisal In Risk Areas
• Create awareness among planners and decision
makers
• Incorporate Hyogo Framework Of Actions
measures in landuse planning
• Integrated approach for DRR in landuse
planning
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Issues And Challenges
• NPP has been formulated reduce the gap
• The success of NPP, NUP and the existing
planning mechanism depend on the state
agencies and local authorities.
• Local authorities must ensure that local plans
conforms with development policies
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Further Improvement On Existing Mechanism
• Review existing documents
• Give priority on prevention of disaster
• Expedite the preparation of risk and hazard maps
• Incorporate Hyogo Framework into programme and documents
• Review existing legislation to incorporate climate change issues
• Review existing building codes (eg. set back requirements)
• Review planning
• Enhance the provision for emergency shelters at local level
• Improve coordination between agencies towards
comprehensive land use planning
• Promote data sharing among technical agencies
• Improve public awareness on climate change issues
• Propose insurance policy for development in risk areas
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Conclusions
Effective
implementation
shall
depend
on
commitment of state and local government and
various agencies thus the present mechanism and
policy to be understood and adhered to by all
including the public and NGOs.
Continuous improvement of development plan
making process is crucial to address climate
change issues
FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF TOWN AND COUNTRY
PLANNING PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT