Transcript Modelling the interactions between climate change - BASIC

Climate Change and Indian Agriculture:
Current Focus and Future Priorities
P.K. Aggarwal
Indian Agricultural Research Institute
New Delhi, India
Climate and Indian Agriculture
Indian agriculture is considerably
dependant on changes in weather
 Contribution of agriculture to GDP
is decreasing, yet large population
dependent on this for livelihoods
 Need to understand the impacts of
increasing climatic risks and
possible adaptations

Approach: Experiments & modelling
Models of food
production
InfoCrop: A User-friendly Crop Modelling System
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Model responds to change
in:
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Environment: Radiation,
temperature, CO2, rainfall,
wind speed, vapor pressure,
flooding, frost
Soil
Variety
Agronomic Management
Pests population
Has been validated for
rice, wheat, maize,
sorghum, cotton, potato,
groundnut, soybean,
mustard in different agroclimatic regions
Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change
on Wheat Yields in North India
CO2, ppm
750
20%
650
10%
550
0%
-10%
-20%
450
-30%
-40%
350
0
WHEAT
1
2
3
Increase in temperature, C
4
5
Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change
Scenarios on Wheat Yields in North India
CO2, ppm
750
2080
20%
650
10%
550
0%
-10%
-20%
2050
450
-30%
-40%
2020
350
0
WHEAT
1
2
3
Increase in temperature, C
4
5
Impact of Climate Change on
Food Supply
Items
Production
(million
tons)
Demand of food
(million tons)
2000
2010
2020
Rice
85.4
103.6
122.1
Wheat
71.0
85.8
102.8
Coarse grains
29.9
34.9
40.9
Total cereals
184.7
224.3
265.8
Pulses
16.1
21.4
27.8
Foodgrains
200.8
245.7
293.6
Fruits
41.1
56.3
77.0
Vegetables
84.5
112.7
149.7
Milk
75.3
103.7
142.7
Meat and eggs
3.7
5.4
7.8
Marine
products
5.7
8.2
11.8
Impact of Climate Change on
Food Production
Demand
Production
Supply
Demand
Business as
usual
Time
Production
Impact of Climate Change on
Food Production
Demand
Business as
usual
With climate
change
Time
Production
Impact of Climate Change on
Food Production
Demand
Business as
usual
With climate
change
With
adaptation
Time
Agro-Ecological Regions
Simulated production, 1000 tons
Validation of InfoCrop for wheat
producing states
25000
20000
15000
10000
1992
1993
1994
5000
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Measured production, 1000 tons
Another validation with the parent model-WTGROWS- using FACE
experiment at USA- showed good agreement with field observations
Regional climate change scenarios
PRECIS: A2 scenario
 Daily values for 2070-2099 period
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Total days <1 oC
Total number of frost days at Delhi
for observed and baseline scenario
35
Observed
30
Baseline
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
Year
19
21
23
25
27
29
Total number of rainy days at Delhi for
observed and baseline scenario
Observed
120
Baseline
Total rainy days
100
80
60
40
20
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
Year
19
22
25
28
Impact of climate change on wheat yields
in a pessimistic technology scenario
HaDCM3-2020
% Change in yield
05-10
00-05
-05-00
-05-10
-10-20
-20-40
>-40
Impact of climate change on wheat yields
in a pessimistic technology scenario
2020
2050
% Change in yield
05-10
00-05
-05-00
-05-10
-10-20
-20-40
>-40
HaDCM3 scenarios
Impact of climate change on wheat yields
in a paradise technology scenario
2020
2050
% Change in yield
05-10
00-05
-05-00
-05-10
-10-20
-20-40
>-40
HaDCM3 scenarios
Declining Response of Wheat to Improved
Management in Global Warming Scenarios
7
Grain yield, t/ha
6
5
4
3
2000
2030
2070
2
1
2010
2050
0
0
50
100
150
N fertiliser added, kg/ha
200
Relation of Recent Weather Trends
with Yields of Paddy and Wheat
y = -0.10x + 200.99
R2 = 0.56*
Tmin, C
2
0
1985
y = -0.05x + 104.56
R2 = 0.18ns
On-station
15
21
10
19
17
1990
1995
Year
1995
Year
20
23
15
1985
On-farm
1990
Radiation (MJ m-2 d-1)
Yield (Mg ha-1)
6
4
25
25
Min Temp. (°C)
8
2000
2000
5
0
1985
1990
1995
Year
Decline in yield is apparently
also related to decrease in
radiation and increase in
minimum temperature
2000
Evidences in Recent Past:
Estimated impact of heat wave in March 2004 on
wheat production
Increased heat: + 5-8 oC in north
and central India from 5th March to
28th March, 2004
 Caused a loss of 4.5 million tons of
wheat
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Estimated impact of heat wave in
March 2004 on wheat production
State
Uttranchal
Punjab
Haryana
Uttar Pradesh
Himachal Pradesh
Bihar
Rajasthan
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
West Bengal
India
Yield
loss, %
8.60
8.32
7.62
6.75
5.79
4.73
3.87
1.11
0.00
0.00
Production
loss, million
tons
0.066
1.287
0.704
1.720
0.033
0.230
0.213
0.084
0.000
0.000
4.387
Adaptation in agriculture is a
continuous process
1.
2.
3.
Agriculture diversity is a manifestation of
climatic adaptation
Farmers/society have always adapted when
allowed by technology availability, their
socio-economic capacity, and economics.
Induced adaptation by innovation:
– Green revolution of 1960s
– Resource conservation technologies such as
zero tillage
– GMOs
Traditional adaptations/coping strategies to
climatic stress practiced by farmers
•Drought proofing by mixed cropping
•Low yielding, tolerant crops
•Resource conservation
•Single cropping
•Frost management by irrigation
•Heat stress alleviation by frequent
irrigation
•Shelter belts
Adaptation options to climatic change:
autonomous
 Changing varieties/crops
 altering fertiliser rates to maintain grain or fruit
quality and be more suited to the prevailing
climate,
 altering amounts and timing of irrigation
 ‘harvest’ water
 conserve soil moisture (e.g. crop residue
retention)
 use water more effectively
 altering the timing or location of cropping
activities
 diversifying income including livestock raising
Scope of autonomous adaptations in
wheat in north India in different scenarios
Change in crop yield, %
10
5
0
-5
-10
Control
-15
Adapted
-20
1C
2C
3C
Increase in Temeprature, C
4C
5C
Constraints in autonomous adaptations
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Availability at desired time
– Fields for desired activity
– Extension services for management of
adapted variety, if different
– Seeds of adapted varieties
– Irrigation water, fertilizer and machinery
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Costs of adaptation- unknown
Adaptation options to climatic change:
Planned
Investments in adaptation research capacity
Improved communication of climate changes and
options to adapt to them
Investments in infrastructure for water management and
for product transportation and marketing
Changes in policies and institutions, e.g. incentives for
resource conservation and use efficiency
Credit for transition to adaptation technologies
Relocation to more productive areas
Creating alternate livelihood options and reducing
dependence on agriculture
Greater insurance coverage for the farm
Conclusions
Future priorities:
Complex future agriculture scenario
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Increasing demands for food
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Reducing availability of natural resources
for agriculture
– Reducing/stagnating crop yields: fatigue of
intensive agriculture and climate change
– Need for increased resources: land, water,
fertilizers, capital
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Need to preserve environment
– Greater environmental impact of agriculture
Agriculture in an Uncertain Future:
Need for Integrated Action
•Assess vulnerability of agriculture to global
climate change in a changing global scenario
(demands, markets, technologies, natural
resources)
•Develop research infrastructure for assessment of
direct impacts- FACE, FATE
•Develop models for integrated assessment
•Need to link ‘sectoral’ research- scenarios of
climate change- water resources – agriculture and
other sectors- policy -feedbacks
•Identify research/technology/policy options for
short-term
•Focus on ‘no-regrets’ options
Indian National Network
Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability of Indian
Agriculture to Climatic Change
Involves 16 research institutes, >60 scientists
Specific Information Needs
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Impact on food (crops, milk, fish) demand and
supply- spatial and temporal differences
Impact on nutrition – cereals, legumes, oil crops
Impact on commercial crops (quality and
quantity)- spices, tea, coffee, medicinal plants
Impact on trade – internal and external
Impact on natural resources- soil, water and air
Impact on farmer’s livelihood
Options to enhance adaptive capacity - farmer
level, regional differences, government level
Potential of agricultural land as carbon sink
Policy implications: link with current
development plans
Information Needs on Vulnerability
of Agricultural Sector
 Can we remain self-sufficient in food despite
global climatic changes, urbanization and
trade liberalization?
 Which regions and the social groups are more
vulnerable to climatic change?
 How will enhanced climatic risks affect
livelihoods of resource-poor farmers- hill,
coastal, tribals?
 How should different farmers adapt to cope
with climate change ? (in the background of
changing scenario of demand and markets)
Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks
on Environment : Information Needs
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Can alternate land use systems such as
plantations and agroforestry increase carbon
sequestration and yet meet food demand?
How much area can be taken out from
agriculture for forestry; where and what policy
measures would be needed?
How much carbon is conserved by limited
tillage options? For how long ?
What is the potential of biofuels for carbon
mitigation; what policies and technologies
would ensure their adoption by farming
community?
Need for research infrastructure