Transcript Climate change impacts, ada ptation and policie s in China

Climate Change Impact Adaptation and Policy in
China
Lin Erda, Ma Shiming
Agroenvironment & Sustainable Development
Institute,
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
OBSERVED
IMPACTS FOR HIGH WARMING SCENARIO
Some increase in extreme climate events
Extreme and
irreversible effects
Risks of large scale
discontinuities
Small positive or negative net monetary
Net negative monetary impacts Aggregate impacts
impacts (most people adversely affected)
Distribution of
Net negative for many regions
Net negative for some regions
impacts
Risks to many systems
Risks to some systems
Unique and
threatened systems
5
IPCC High
Global mean annual temperature
change relative to preindustrial
4
3
2
IPCC Low
1
0
1900
2000
1950
OBSERVED
Temperature anomaly ( oC)
6
2050
2100
Some increase in extreme climate events
Small positive or negative net monetary impacts (most people adversely affected)
Net negative for some regions
Risks to some systems
IMPACTS FOR LOW WARMING SCENARIO
Extreme and
irreversible effects
Aggregate impacts
Distribution of
impacts
Unique and
threatened systems
China’s Temperature Change
Frequent occurrence of abnormal
weather conditions
 Occurring frequencies of droughts, floods and typhoon in
some regions of China are correlated with the occurrence of
the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
 The summer rain belt has moved further to the south. The
precipitation has reduced in northern China
 The winter becomes warmer and the summer becomes
cooler;
 The typhoons reached to China are not so frequently as
before.
Observed impacts of changes in
regional climate warming
 are related to increasing yield trends in Northeast China,
 lengthening growing seasons in northern China,
improved cotton quality in Xingjiang, and
 expansion and advanced phonologies
of agricultural pests.
 rice, wheat, and corn production would meet adverse
impacts due to shorter growth period caused by
continuous warming climate, but cotton different.
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
Yield (t/ha)
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
99
97
95
93
91
89
87
85
Rice production (M Ton)
China’s Rice Production and Yield
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
China rice production
China wheat production
China maize production
The Possible Impacts on Main Crops in China 2030
60%
Increase decrease
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
Irri S Corn
Summer Corn
Irri. S Corn
Spring Corn
Late Rice
Early Rice
Single Rice
Irri S Wheat
Spring Wheat
Irrigated Wheat
Wheat
Concerning Issues
During the 1990s, the rice production and productivity in
Asia has grown at a much slower rate than population
The current yield gap ranges from 10 to 60% between
attainable and economically exploitable yields depending
on the ecosystems and countries
The decline in cereal yield is due to shortening of growth
period, decrease in photosynthesis ability, and increase in
respiration demanding more water availability
Asian rice and other crops monoculture may be reaching
productivity limits due to adverse impacts on soils
Legislation, policy and sustainable
development
 China has adopted 26 sets of laws and
regulations in the agricultural sector.
 Those laws and regulations have played an
important role in promoting sustainable
development in agriculture.
 They also play an important role in adaptation
of climate change
The Agricultural Law
 The Agricultural Law, adopted in July 1993, is
very conducive to a sustained and coordinated
development in agriculture. Since 1993, an annual
conference on rural development is convened each
year by the central government, at which policies
and measures aimed at protecting and encouraging
farmer’s initiatives and increasing agricultural
production are adopted.
1. Maintain the system of household
contract responsibility with remuneration
linked to output
 The extension of the contract period to up to
30 years has been embraced enthusiastically
by the farmers at large, who are now
motivated to increase agricultural production.
So farmers have became a main bodies to
adapt agriculture to CC
Adaptation policies for agriculture
2. Promoting the development of the agricultural
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
production
Farmland water conservancy and shelter forest
Mechanization and Modernization of Agricultural
Production
Agricultural insurance undertakings
Increasing allocations for agriculture
Enhancing science, technology and education
Resources use and the protection of rural environment
Prohibiting deforestation and the practice of slash-andburn
The Forestry Law of China
 Administrative rules and regulations such as Rules
Governing the Implementation of the Forestry Law,
Regulations on the Prevention of Forest Fires and Forest
Pest Control Regulations were adopted 15 years ago. Up till
now, China has issued four sets of forestry laws and legal
instruments, 4 forestry administrative regulations, about 60
forestry sector rules and more than 200 local forestry
regulations and local government rules. These laws, rules
and regulations have played an important role in promoting
sustainable forestry development and adaptation to CC.
China’s policies, laws and
regulations on water conservation:
1. Water conservation
2. Flood control
3. Soil conservation
4. Water pollution control act
A UK-China Cooperation Project
To provide climate change scenarios for China,
based on selected IPCC SRES emission scenarios
for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.
To provide socioeconomic scenarios for China
relevant to agriculture, for the 2020s and 2050s.
To provide an overview of the overall effects of
climate change on agriculture in China, including
economic costs of damages and /or adaptation.
Climate Change
Scenarios for China
Boundary Map of China
Grid partition of China
Seven different climate scenarios (baseline,
2025, 2050 and 2080 under two emission Land use map
scenarios (A2 and B2 SRES)
The resolution of climate scenarios for
China is 50×50km with 19 levels in the
atmosphere
Simulation period: 1961-1990, 2071-2100.
For the period of 2011-2040, 2041-2071,
can be get from pattern scaling
FAO Soil data
Crop Variety and
Planting details
Yield change map
Modeling results——Land use Change
Scenario(2010)
Tilled land, grain output and demand during
2000-2080（High）
•Yea •populati •land（x104）
r
on
•（x108
）
•Output
（x108）
•Demand
（x108）
•Import/
Demand
（%）
•Per
capita
demand
（kilogra
m/person）
•200
0
•12.65
•9546.65
•5.084
•4.8
•380
•201
0
•14.03
•9250
•5.34
•5.40
•1.11
•385
•202
0
•14.95
•9070
•5.50
•5.83
•5.66
•390
•203
0
•15.48
•8890
•5.67
•6.20
•8.55
•400
•204
0
•15.70
•8720
•5.84
•6.52
•9.82
•415
•205
•15.69
•8550
•6.02
•6.66
•9.61
•425
Climate change scenarios
Boundary Map of China
Grid partition of China
Land use map
GIS technology
FAO soil data
Crop Variety Distribution
Sowing date, Planting type
Running regional crop model
Yield Change of every cell
validating
Flowchart
The scale of China boundary map is 1:1,000,000
The resolution of the cells is 50*50KM, which is
corresponding to the climate change scenarios.
Current and future land use map, the future land use map
were predicted through the GDP and population
Get the soil attributes of physical and chemical
characters, using the central soil model, adjusting the soil
organic carbon under different climate scenarios.
Crop variety and planting details will distributed to every
cell. Form the data base for running crop model.
Yield Change Map all over China
Highlights of the projects so far
 The more exact mapping results show the larger
difference of crop yield distribution with the
previous results; even involving adaptation climate
change still will result in a reduction of between 5
and 10% in production of main crops in China in
the next 30 years
 .A further adverse impacts will happen, large
adaptation costs will need, but will not seriously
influence food security
Possible Adaptation for Agriculture
•Adjust cropping calendar and crop rotation
•develop and promote use of high-yielding varieties
•Promote irrigation and water-saving technologies
•shift from conventional crops to intensive
greenhouse agriculture;
•Adopt heat-resistant crops, water-efficient cultivars
with resistance to pests and diseases
Distribution Changes of Pinus
tabulaeformis Carr油松
Possible Adaptation for Forestry
•Improving the management of the ecological system
of natural forests
•Selecting improved varieties of trees
•Integrated management of forest diseases , pets and
weeds
•Improving the control of forest fires
Possible Adaptation for Water
•Improving the protection and maintenance of facilities
•Intensify scientific research on water resources
•Strengthening flood-control ability of dams and river dykes
•Establishing modern forecasting, assessment systems
•Protecting water environment and preventing pollution
•Tree-planting and afforestation to prevent soil erosion
•Establishing interregional water diversion
Significant actions taken by
 the strengthening of research on (1) the science of
the climate system and climatic change, (2)
greenhouse gas emissions and the national
inventory, (3) impacts on social and economic
development, and (4) response strategies. China
has also established a high-level cross-ministerial
body, the National Coordinating Committee on
Climate Change Policy, to address policy issues.
Has already made contributions
 to alleviating the longer-term trends of
climate change by such national measures
and "win-win" strategies as population
control, energy conservation, renewable
energy development, and large-scale
afforestation
A targeted research will need
 A Capacity built and results obtained in V & A area
will serve as a basis for sectoral vulnerability and
adaptation analyses and input for climate change
related policy, some of which may be included in
the "general description of steps to implement the
Convention" required in National Communications