Transcript Power Point Presentation of lecture 27 th February 2009 Hard

Climate Change and Energy
ENV-M594: 27th February 2009
Hard Choices Ahead
CRed
Carbon Reduction
N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук
Energy Science Director CRed Project
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
1
How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy
Security and Climate Change?
• Background:
• Hard Choices facing us
• Raising Awareness
• Technical Opportunities
How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy
Security and Climate Change
Oil: Comparison of Discoveries and Demand
bilion barrels per annum
60
0
0
500
0
400
0
0
30
0
0
200
0
100
0
0
00
01930
0
0
1936.553
1937.92
1938.784
1939.78
1941.146
1941.651
1942.852
1943.714
1944.915
1945.77
1946.691
1947.555
1949.098
1949.904
1950.927
1940 1950
1951.81960
1952.819
1953.687
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1970
1952
1953
1954
34.761
31.547
36.482
14.011
10.056
3.141
3.878
7.826
8.316
6.832
51.274
56.209
56.699
20.894
16.447
1980
1990
27.555
21.379
28.537
1937
1.922
actual
1938 discoveries
2.083
1939
2.244
projected
discoveries
1940
2.405
1941
2.5012
1942
2.5974
1943
2.6936
1944
2.7898
1945
2.886
1946
3.13
1947
3.374
1948
3.618
1949
3.862
1950 4.10575
1951
4.3495
20101952
2020 4.59325
2030 2040
1953
4.837
1954 5.245333
demand
2000
We need to consider alternatives now
2050
3
UK Gas Production and Demand
140
billion cubic metres
120
100
80
Import
Gap
60
40
UK Production
20
UK Demand
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
4
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
How does UK compare with other countries?
Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
45
Developing
40
EU
35
Other OECD
30
25
20
Transition
Oil Producing
UK
China
15
10
5
0
Pakistan
India
Namibia
Brazil
Turkey
China
Mexico
Lithuania
Sweden
Switzerland
France
Ukraine
South_Africa
Libya
Norway
Italy
Greece
UK
Denmark
Japan
Germany
Russia
Netherlands
US
UAE
Qatar
tonnes/capita
50
Per capita Carbon Emissions
5
Sweden
Norway
France
Pakistan
Lithuania
Brazil
Switzerland
Namibia
Ukraine
India
Netherlands
Botswana
UK
Qatar
UAE
Germany
Libya
Russia
Denmark
Italy
USA
South Africa
China
Australia
Greece
Poland
tonnes CO2 / tonne of oil equavlanet
How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?
Carbon efficiency of Energy use
3.5
3
2.5
Developing
Transition
EU 15
Other OECD
Oil Exporting
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Why is there such a difference between one country and another?
66
How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?
• Why has France a much lower carbon emission per capita than UK?
• Why has Germany and the Netherlands a higher factor?
• Carbon emission factors:
– Direct use of fuels:
• natural gas ~ 0.188 kg/kWh (varies slightly)
• oil (depending on grade) ~ 0.25 kg/kWh
• coal (depending on grade) ~ 0.30 kg/kWh
– Electricity (including losses in transmission):
•
Coal Generation
~ 1000 g / kWH
•
Oil Generation
~
900 g / kWH
•
Gas Generation
~
400 g / kWh
•
Nuclear Generation
~
5 – 10 g / kWH
7
How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?
Electricity Carbon Factor
1,000
Developing
900
EU
gms CO2 / kWh
800
Other OECD
700
Oil Exporting
600
500
UK
400
300
Luxembourg
200
100
0
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
% renewables + nuclear
100%
120%
8
Poland
India
Australia
Libya
China
Italy
Czech Republic
Other OECD
USA
Oil Exporting
Denmark
EU
Portugal
1000
Developing
Germany
UK
Netherlands
Japan
Spain
UAE
Qatar
Luxembourg
Belgium
Austria
France
Sweden
Switzerland
Norway
gms CO2 / kWH
Carbon Emissions and Electricity
Carbon Emission Factor in Electricity Generation
1200
800
600
400
200
0
9
Electricity Generation i n selected Countries
USA
Japan
coal
oil
r
UK
gas
nuclear
hydro
Germany
France
Poland
India
Sweden
China
Norway
Russia
other
renewables
Electricity Generation Carbon Emission Factors
Coal ~ 1.0 kg / kWh
Gas (CCGT) ~ 0.4 kg/kWh
Oil
~ 0.9 kg/kWh
Nuclear 0.01 ~ 0.03 kg/kWh
1400
Interconnectors
Hydro&Wind
Oil&OCGT
Nuclear
Coal
CCGT
Daily Generation (GWh)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
39767
November
39797
December
January 39827
Current UK mix ~ 0.54 kg/kWh
39857
February
11
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020
- Non-Renewable Methods
potential
contribution to
Supply in 2020
Gas CCGT
0 - 80% (curently
35%)
costs in 2020
Available now (but is
now running out)
~2p + but recent
trends put figure
much higher
Wholesale price (p/kWh)
12
Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed
10
UK becomes
net importer of
gas in 2004
8
6
4
2
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Price projected by Government
for Gas generation in 2020
2009
2010
12
12
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020
- Non-Renewable Methods
potential
contribution to
Supply in 2020
0 - 80% (curently
35%)
Gas CCGT
14000
20% and falling)
Installed Capacity (MW)
"Clean Coal"
Available now (but is now
running out)
~2p + but recent
trends put figure
much higher
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is
0 - 30% (France new inherently safe designs completed each year after 2018.
2.5 - 3.5p
80%) - (currently some practical development
nuclear fission
(long term)
nuclear fusion
costs in 2020
12000
needed
New Build ?
Projected
not available until 2040
unavailable
10000
Actual at earliest
8000
Traditional Coal
2.5 - 3.5p - but will
Available
now:
Not
6000 coal could
~40%EU - ETS carbon
viable without Carbon
supply
4000 40 - 50% by Capture & Sequestration trading will affect
2020
this
2000
0
Carbon sequestration
either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s
13
13
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
14
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%
exploitation
some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but
nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on
average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At
Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and
Ipswich
15
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%
Hydro
5%
exploitation
some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
potential
Micro Hydro Scheme
operating on Siphon Principle
installed at Itteringham Mill,
Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
16
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50%
available, but much research needed
to bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km
But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.
17
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Transport Fuels:
Resource
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
• Biodiesel?
~ 2p
On Shore
Wind ~25% available now for commercial
• Bioethanol?
exploitation
• Compressed gas from some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
Off Shore
Wind 25 - 50%
methane from waste.
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops/
Biomass/Biogas
50% +
available, but research needed in
some areas
2.5 - 4
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk
would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.
18
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
Wave/Tidal
Stream
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
100% + techology limited - major development
ultimately unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
some areas
19
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
Wave/Tidal
Stream
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
100% + techology limited - major development
ultimately unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
some areas
20
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Output (MWh)
available,
but
much
research needed 10+ p
Photovoltaic
50%
700to bring down costs significantly
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
500
some areas
400
Wave/Tidal
100% + techology limited - major development
unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
Output
per
Stream78 000 GWh
ultimately
Tidal Barrages
200
100
10 - 20% technology available but unlikely
without Government intervention
31/12/2002
17/12/2002
03/12/2002
19/11/2002
22/10/2002
08/10/2002
24/09/2002
10/09/2002
27/08/2002
13/08/2002
30/07/2002
16/07/2002
02/07/2002
18/06/2002
04/06/2002
21/05/2002
07/05/2002
23/04/2002
09/04/2002
26/03/2002
12/03/2002
26/02/2002
12/02/2002
29/01/2002
15/01/2002
0
01/01/2002
annum
Sufficient for 13500 houses
in Orkney
Save 40000 tonnes of CO2
4 - 8p
300
05/11/2002
Output (MWh per day)
Energy Crops
600
not
costed
21
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal
Stream
Tidal Barrages
100% + techology limited - extensive
4 - 8p
Geothermal
some areas
development unlikely before 2020
10 - 20% technology available but unlikely
without Government intervention
not
costed
unlikely for electricity generation
before 2050 if then
22
Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security
60000
50000
New Coal ???
MW
40000
30000
20000
10000
Opted Out
Coal
Actual Coal
with FGD
Actual Projected
Nuclear Nuclear
New
Nuclear?
Renewables
There is a
looming
capacity
shortfall
Even with a full
deployment of
renewables.
A 10%
reduction in
demand per
house will see
a rise of 7% in
total demand
- Increased
population
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 decreased
household size
• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more & close by 2015
• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new station each year beyond 2018
• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018
23
Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore
wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for
next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
• Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
•
then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
•
unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to
ALL our power stations NOW Apart from small schemes it is not available at present.
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation
of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
24
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
•
•
we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from
GAS
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of
Global Warming by using coal?
-the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS
option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
25
How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy
Security and Climate Change?
• Background:
• Hard Choices facing us
• Raising Awareness
• Technical Opportunities
On average each person in UK causes
the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each
year.
每一个英国人每年排放9吨CO2
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
相当于每人排放5个热气球
4 million over Norfolk
400万诺福克
In the developing world, the average is
under 1 balloon per person 在发展中
国家，这一水平低于1个热气球
Is this Fair? 这公平吗？
“Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did
nothing because he thought he could do only a little.”
‘没有人犯的错误比他不做任何事更大，因为他认为他的行
动微不足道
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
Raising Awareness
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this
appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent
volume of 1 party balloon.
•
•
Standby on electrical appliances
20 - 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons
at a cost of over £6 per year
Filling up with petrol (~£45 for a full tank – 40 litres)
--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
At Gao’an
Noone
1 Primary
Xuhuifamily
District,
How
far does
have to School
drive inin
a small
car (e.g. 1400 cc
Shanghai
Toyota Corolla) to emit
as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
28
The Behavioural Dimension
Comm
• Household size has little
impact on electricity
consumption.
Electricity Consumption
Average kWh/month
1200
1000
• Consumption varies by up to
a factor of 9 for any given
household size.
800
600
400
• Allowing for Income still
shows a range of 6 or more.
200
0
0
1
29
2
3
4
No. people
5
6
7
• Education/Awareness is
important
29
How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy
Security and Climate Change?
• Background:
• Hard Choices facing us
• Raising Awareness
• Technical Opportunities
Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
Solar Thermal Energy
Solar Pump
Normal hot water circuit
Solar Circuit
31
Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
Solar Thermal Energy
Solar Collectors installed 27th
January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
32
Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
Solar Thermal Energy
Net Solar Energy (November 1st 2007 - )
8
7
5
Febraury
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
4
3
6
2
5
1
4
0
1
16
1
2007
kWh per day
KWh/day
6
January
2006-07
2007-08
3
16 31 15 30 14 29 15 30 14 29 14 29 13 28 13 28 12 27 11 26 11
2
2008
1
0
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
33
It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?
House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of
February
House in Lerwick, Shetland
Isles with Solar Panels
- less than 15,000 people live
north of this in UK!
34
Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions:
Solar Photovoltaic
Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.
A church not connected to grid e.g. Fishley , with services only once a week PV
would be a sensible option. BUT English Heritage???????
Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square
meter per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3700 kWh per year
35
Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
• Micro CHP plant for homes are being trialled.
• Replace the normal boiler
• But there is a problem in summer as there is limited demand for
heat – electrical generation will be limited.
• Backup generation is still needed unless integrated with solar
photovoltaic?
• In community schemes explore opportunity for multiple unit
provision of hot water in summer, but only single unit in winter.
36
Micro CHP
36
Other Renewable Technologies
Micro Wind
Vertical Axis
Mini Wind
37
Horizontal Axis Mini Wind
6 kW Proven Turbine powering a
Heat Pump providing heating for
Parish Kirk, Westray
In 2007/8, mini wind turbines had a
load factor of ~ 10.5% on average
>>> annual output of
approximately 5500 kWh/annum
38
Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump
Heat supplied
to house
Throttle
Valve
Condenser
High Temperature
High Pressure
Compressor
Evaporator
Heat extracted
from outside
Low Temperature
Low Pressure
Any low grade source of heat may be used
• Coils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deep
• Bore holes
• Lakes/Rivers are ideal
• Air can be used but is not as good
• Best performance if the temperature source between
outside source and inside sink is as small as possible.
• Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as
electricity put in.
39
Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
The Heat Pump
Images from RenEnergy Website
40
How we as local communities respond to the twin
issues of Energy Security and Climate Change
• Background: the evidence of Climate Change
• Hard Choices facing us
• Raising Awareness
• Technical Opportunities
• Opportunities for the Church and Community
41
Involve the local Community
• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned
for a wind turbine.
• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity
needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.
• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are
now reaping the reward.
• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide
by 2015.
42
Involve the local Community
Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.
The Parish Kirk, and Community
Centre are heated by heat Pumps
partly powered by Mini Wind
Turbines
Waste cooking oil from other islands is
processed into biodiesel for farm and
other vehicles.
Ethanol used in process is obtained from
fermentation of harvested sea weed
43
43
Involve the local Community
The Broadsol Project
Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at
same time. Significantly reduced costs
44
Conclusions (1)
• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction
over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity
more likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of
renewable energy and small changes in behaviour
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of
energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
•
Global Warming will not only have adverse effects on our
brothers and sisters in the developing world, but within the next
10 years we could also be faced with energy shortages unless we
act now.
45
Conclusions (2)
• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of
whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
This presentation is available from at:
www2.env.uea.ac.uk/gmmc/energy/env-M594/m594_2009.ppt
"If you do not change direction, you may end up
where you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
46