Transcript The role of science in informing energy legislation

THE ROLE OF SCIENCE IN
INFORMING ENERGY
LEGISLATION
Oct. 13, 2010
Novem Auyeung
2010 Econ Camp
What is your science background?
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
I took science classes in high school.
I took science classes after high school.
I took science classes after college.
I get my science news from the general news
media (e.g., newspapers, radio, TV news).
I get my science news from scientific magazines,
science/technical mailing lists, scientific
organizations, or radio shows and websites
devoted to science news (e.g., Science/Nature,
AAAS, Science Friday, Scientific American)
Science & Energy

Science provides us with valuable information on:
 How we can produce energy
Science & Energy

Science provides us with valuable information on:
 How we can produce energy
 Location and abundance of energy
Science & Energy

Science provides us with valuable information on:
 How we can produce energy
 Location and abundance of energy
 Environmental and public health consequences
(externalities) of producing energy from
different sources
Consequences of energy use

Fossil fuels
Air pollution
 Water pollution
 Climate change
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Wind energy
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Bird deaths
Solar energy

Health problems during
manufacturing
Nuclear energy


Nuclear waste disposal
Hydroelectric power
Harms fish populations
 Reduced water quality

Consequences of energy use
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Mercury
 Coal
contains trace amounts of mercury that are
released when coal is combusted
©USGS
Consequences of energy use

Mercury
 Coal
contains trace amounts of mercury that is released
when coal is combusted
 Over 90% of Indiana’s electricity comes from coal
Consequences of energy use
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2099
Consequences of energy use
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2099
Consequences of energy use

Mercury
 Coal
contains trace amounts of mercury that are
released when coal is combusted
 Over 90% of Indiana’s electricity comes from coal
 Precipitation in Indiana contains concentrations of
mercury that harm wildlife and sometimes people
Consequences of energy use

Climate change quiz (true or false):
1) The greenhouse effect is harmful.
2) Climate change is caused by natural processes.
3) Scientists are still debating the causes of climate
change.
The greenhouse effect keeps our
planet warm enough to support life.
Humans are a part of nature.

Scientists account for geological, ecological, and
human drivers of climate change in their analyses.
Based on multiple, independent lines of evidence,
they find that the human activities dominate.
(Karl et al. 2006)
(Forster et al. 2007)
The majority of scientific experts and scientific
organizations agree on the causes of climate change.
(Anderegg, WRL et al. 2010.)
List of scientific organizations that
are convinced of the role of
human activity (e.g., fossil fuel
combustion and deforestation) in
climate change:
• 32 national science academies
• American Association for the
Advancement of Science (AAAS)
• American Chemical Society (ACS)
• American Geophysical Union
(AGU)
• European Science Foundation
• Federation of Australian Scientific
and Technological Societies
• National Center for Atmospheric
Research
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)
• Royal Meteorological Society
Science can tell us consequences of
different amounts of pollution

Science can provide us with probabilities and
information for risk management. Economists can
provide us with cost estimates for quantifying risk.
Policies are made based what level of risk is
acceptable.
Science & Energy

Science provides us with valuable information on:
 How we can produce energy
 Location and abundance of energy
 Environmental and public health consequences
(externalities) of producing energy from
different sources
 How we can minimize the negative consequences
of energy production
Making energy clean and green

Energy conservation
Green building technology and industry
 Weatherizing homes
 Compact fluorescent light bulbs
 Improving public transportation

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Cleaner energy
Emerging renewable energy industry, especially in China and
Europe
 Energy from waste
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
Anaerobic digester for West Lafayette’s own wastewater treatment plant
Making energy clean and green
Fossil fuels:
US$5.5 billion
Renewables:
US$4.9 billion
(Energy Information Agency, DOE 2007)
Questions?

Feel free to contact me: [email protected]
Bibliography
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Anderegg, WLS, JW Prall, J Harold, SH Schneider. 2010. Expert credibility in climate change.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science:
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.abstract
Energy Information Agency, DOE. 2008. Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in
Energy Markets 2007. Executive Summary:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/subsidy2/index.html
Forster, P., V. Ramaswamy, P. Artaxo, T. Berntsen, R. Betts, D.W. Fahey, J. Haywood, J. Lean, D.C.
Lowe, G. Myhre, J. Nganga, R. Prinn, G. Raga, M. Schulz and R. Van Dorland, 2007: Changes
in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M.
Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Karl, TR, SJ Hassol, CD Miller, and WL Murray (eds). Temperature trends in the lower
atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. Climate Change Science
Program and the Subcommitte on Global Change Research, Washington, DC.
Extra notes
Making energy clean and green
(Energy Information Agency, DOE 2007)
It’s real
©NASA
Making energy clean and green
$18.2 billion (in 2009)
According to Bloomberg
New Energy Finance
(Environmental Law Institute 2009)
Location & Abundance of Energy
Fossil fuel reserves
Formation of fossil fuels
from organic matter
(e.g. swamp forests &
plankton)
Extraction & consumption
of fossil fuels
Location & Abundance of Energy
~1.3 trillion barrels of oil
- 35 billion barrels/year
+ 31.4 million barrels/year*
Fossil fuel reserves
Formation of fossil fuels
from organic matter
(e.g. swamp forests &
plankton)
Extraction & consumption
of fossil fuels
*Assumes recovery rate of oil from organic matter is 0.009% (Dukes 2003), total marine production per
year is 48.5 PgC (Field et al 1998) and oil very optimistically takes only 1000 years to form .
Pop Quiz: What is science?
True or False:
1.
Science is about testing and proving hypotheses.
2.
Scientific knowledge can only be generated
through experimentation.
3.
A scientific hypothesis is an “educated guess”.
Pop Quiz: What is science?
True or False:
1.
Science is about testing and proving hypotheses.

2.
Scientific knowledge can only be generated
through experimentation.

3.
False – Hypotheses are only disproven.
False – Scientific knowledge can be generated through
model systems, computer models, observational data.
A scientific hypothesis is an “educated guess”.

False – Hypotheses are testable answers to scientific
questions. If a “guess” is not testable, then it is not a
hypothesis.