Transcript Global Warming & Climate Change

Environmental Update
La Crosse ASHRAE Meeting
December 9, 2008
Larry Butz
GEA Consulting
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ozone Depletion
Refrigerants
Global Warming/Climate Change
Energy Alternatives
Buildings Energy Use
Water Shortages
Ozone Hole Stabilizes
The size of this year's
Antarctic ozone hole is
slightly above the 10-year
average in both depth and
overall area.
Last year's ozone hole broke
records for both ozone loss
within the critical layer and for
the size of the area affected
Nov 2008
Radiative Forcing
Long-Lived GHGs
WMO GHG
Bulletin 2008
Halocarbon Concentrations
WMO
GHG
Bulletin
2008
Refrigerants
• Coke deploys 100,000 CO2 units by 2010
• Ben & Jerry’s tests 50 HC units
• GE unveils plans for first HFC-free household
refrigerator to be built and sold in the U.S.;
Submits hydrocarbon refrigerant for EPA
approval (isobutane)
• HCFC 22(new equipment) phaseout 1/1/2010
• DuPont and Honeywell make HFO-1234yf
progress
Global Warming & Climate Change
Carbon Budget
2007
GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Christopher B. Field,
Corinne Le Quéré, Richard A. Houghton, Gregg Marland, Michael R. Raupach
Last update:
26 September 2008
Emissions from Fossil Fuel + Cement
Atmoapheric [CO2] (ppmv)
Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC/y)
2007 Fossil Fuel: 8.5 Pg C
9
8
Emissions
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1850
4001850
380
360
340
320
300
Data Source: G. Marland, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, and J. Gregg at CDIAC
280
1870
1870
1890
1890
1910
1910
1930
1930
1950
1950
1970
1970
1990
1990
2010
2010
[CO2]
1990 - 1999: 0.9% y-1
2000 - 2007: 3.5% y-1
2 ppm/year
Fossil Fuel
Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
10
Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC/y)
9.5
9
8.5
8
7.5
CDIAC
IEAall
A1B(Av)
A1FI(Av)
A1T(Av)
A2(Av)
B1(Av)
B2(Av)
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
1990
1995
2000
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS (updated)
2005
2010
Percentage of Global Annual Emissions
Regional Shift in Emissions Share
62%
57%
49.7%
43%
38%
FCCC
Kyoto
Protocol
Adopted
Kyoto
Reference
Year
J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication
50.3%
53%
47%
Kyoto
Protocol
Enter into
Force
Current
Carbon Intensity of the Global Economy
Carbon intensity
(KgC/US$)
Photo: CSIRO
Kg Carbon Emitted
to Produce 1 $ of Wealth
1960
1970
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
1980
1990
2000
2006
Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change
Borneo, Courtesy: Viktor Boehm
Tropical deforestation
13 Million hectares each year
2000-2007
Tropical Americas 0.6 Pg C y-1
Tropical Asia
0.6 Pg C y-1
Tropical Africa
0.3 Pg C y-1
1.5 Pg C y-1
[2007-Total Anthropogenic Emissions:8.5+1.5 = 10 Pg]
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2007)
1.5 Pg C y-1
4.2 Pg y-1
Atmosphere
46%
2.6 Pg y-1
Land
29%
+
7.5 Pg C y-1
2.3 Pg y-1
Oceans
26%
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)
Climate Change at 55% Discount
Natural CO2 sinks absorb 55% of
all anthropogenic carbon
emissions slowing down climate
change significantly.
They are in effect a huge subsidy
to the global economy worth half a
trillion US$ annually if an
equivalent sink had to be created
using other climate mitigation
options (based on the cost of carbon in
the EU-ETS).
Factors that Influence the Airborne Fraction
1. The rate of CO2 emissions.
2. The rate of CO2 uptake and ultimately the
total amount of C that can be stored by land
and oceans:
–
–
Land: CO2 fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition
fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, …
Oceans: CO2 solubility (temperature, salinity),, ocean
currents, stratification, winds, biological activity,
acidification, …
Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press
Decline in the Efficiency of CO2 Natural Sinks
% CO2 Emissions
in Atmosphere
Fraction of all anthropogenic emissions that stay in the atmosphere
Emissions
1 tCO2
400Kg stay
Emissions
1 tCO2
1960
1970
1980
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
1990
2000
2006
450Kg stay
Efficiency of Natural Sinks
Land Fraction
Ocean Fraction
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Drivers of Accelerating Atmospheric CO2
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1
1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1
2000 - 2007: 2.0 ppm y-1
To:
• Economic growth
• Carbon intensity
• Efficiency of natural sinks
65% - Increased activity of the global economy
17% - Deterioration of the carbon intensity of the global economy
18% - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks
(calculations based on the period 2000-2006)
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Conclusions (i)
• Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are growing x4 faster since
2000 than during the previous decade, and above the worst
case emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC).
• Less Developed Countries are now emitting more carbon
than Developed Countries.
• The carbon intensity of the world’s economy is improving
slower than previous decades.
Conclusions (ii)
• The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 5% over
the last 50 years (and will continue to do so in the future),
implying that the longer it takes to begin reducing
emissions significantly, the larger the cuts needed to
stabilize atmospheric CO2.
• All these changes have led to an acceleration of
atmospheric CO2 growth 33% faster since 2000 than in the
previous two decades, implying a stronger climate forcing
and sooner than expected.
Global Warming
• 2008 Set To Be About 10th Warmest Year
– La Nina kept a lid on temperatures in 2008 despite
an underlying warming trend,
• Carbon dioxide was up most in 2007. It increased to
383.1 ppm, ½ % more than the 2006 amount.
Methane and nitrous oxide rose by lesser amounts,
• "CO2 alone is responsible for 90 percent of the
greenhouse gas warming over the last five years,"
Water Vulnerabilities
Freshwater
• Global water consumption is doubling every 20 years,
• Water, unlike oil, has no substitute
• Climate change is altering the patterns of freshwater availability in
complex ways
• It is often grossly underpriced—and hence squandered
• The water footprint of China is about 700; Japan 1150; U.S. 2500 m3 per
year per capita.
• Producing biofuels will further deplete the world's already overtaxed
water supply.
– For 1 gallon of ethanol up to 4,000 gallons of water are required.
Water Shortages
• by 2025, two-thirds of the world's population will face
periodic and often severe water shortages
• In sub-Saharan Africa 42% of the region's population lacks
access to a safe water supply
• aging infrastructure, inadequate treatment facilities, and
contamination pose more problems.
• Freshwater already is exported via tankers between France
and Algeria and Turkey and Israel.
To Produce
- 1 cup of coffee we need 140 liters of water
- 1 liter of milk requires 1,000 liters of water
- 1 kg of rice requires 3,000 liters of water
- 1 kg of beef we need 16,000 liters of water
Producing biofuels will further deplete the
world's already overtaxed water supply. For
1 gallon of ethanol up to 4,000 gallons of
water are required.
WaterFootPrint Network
Seven global groups, including WBDSC, joined forces to set up
the Water Footprint Network, with the aim of working
towards a common approach to water footprint
measurement, accounting and reporting.
Clean Energy 2008
Clean Energy 2008
Clean Energy 2008
Renewables
• Benchmark EUAs traded down to
14.45 euros a tonne on Friday, the
lowest level since March 2007 and
50 percent below a 2-year high of
29.69 euros hit last July.
• "In places that rely on carbon
credits to support new projects,
such as China, India and Latin
America, the fall in price will delay
or possibly kill the marginal, less
economically viable projects,
In 2007 new investment
in sustainable energy
reached record levels of
$148.4 billion, 60%
higher than in 2006.
Renewables
• New international agency to promote
renewable energies
– International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
– is meant to be the first truly international
organisation offering both industrialised and
developing countries support
• The EU has adopted a binding target to source
20% of its energy needs from renewables by
2020
Energy Efficiency
• the only by-product of energy efficiency is wealth, in
the form of lower fuel bills and less spending on
power stations, pipelines. Etc
• greater efficiency accounts for two-thirds of
anticipated emissions savings
• energy intensity is lower in countries where
electricity prices are higher
Energy Efficiency in Buildings
Buildings
Buildings already account for
up to 40% of primary energy use
and
demand will grow rapidly with economic
development, population growth and
changing lifestyles
The vast majority of energy
consumption occurs during a building’s
occupation.
Costs to LEED Certify
Cost of Efficiency Gains
Information Links
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/
World Meteorological Organization: http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html
Waterfootprint: www.waterfootprint.lorg
International Energy Agency: www.iea.org
Alliance to Save Energy: www.ase.org
World business Council for Sustainable Development: www.wbcsd.org
American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy: www.aceee.org
California Institute for Energy and Environment: www.ciee.ucop.edu
Center for Energy and Climate Solutions: www.energyandclimate.org
CleanEdge: www.cleanedge.com
Consortium for Energy Efficiency: www.cee1.org
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. DOE: www.eere.energy.gov
Energy Information Administration, U.S. DOE: www.eia.doe.gov
ENERGY STAR, U.S. EPA: www.energystar.gov
Industrial Assessment Center, U.S. DOE: www.iac.rutgers.edu
Industrial Technologies Program, U.S. DOE: www1.eere.energy.gov/industry
International Association of Energy-Efficient Lighting: www.iaeel.org
North American Insulation Manufacturers Association: www.naima.org
Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships: www.neep.org
U.S. Green Building Council: www.usgbc.org
World Energy Efficiency Association: www.weea.org
Environmental Update
Newsletter
Contact
[email protected]
or
www.gea-consulting.com