Transcript Future facts, figures, fictions*

Looking out to & for
the future
Anne Somerville
G21 Region Alliance
VCOSS Congress 2009
Looking out 15 years from now…
…how do we perceive our future?
Liveability
Sustainability
Productivity
Quality of life is improving
Change
via
major
forces
Already have
the best of
possible worlds
Good as it gets so
continue to endure
Building a better
world
Do your best
with what is
available
Quality of life is deteriorating
Change
via
individual
Outlook affects looking out…to the
multiple futures

Business as usual


Possible


Open to potential change & uncertainties and what
“could happen”
Plausible


Not much different to now, just later…and if nothing
changes, then nothing changes…same will happen
Likelihood – what “might happen”
Preferable

what we want to happen – any of above
Global
…transformational change

Population
 95% up in developing countries: ie youth bulges
 Growing middle class, declining birth rate in West
 Gender, indigenous, cultural, and ethnicity issues

Governance & Security
 Western democracy not evolving as political structure of choice
 Rise of non state actors that impact across borders, less control via
government, post Americanism era
 International financial systems
 Redefined regions of power: India, China, Brazil, Russia

Paradigm shifts
 Global alliances, cultural relativism & authoritarian regimes
 Free flow of capital, goods, people & increased impact of networks
 Consequence management & central authority of international organisations
 Celebrity Philanthropy
Global
…more transformational change
Health, Food & Water
 Availability, shortages &
maldistribution
 Energy supplies & impacts - the
problem of plenty
 From pandemics to personal
wellbeing metrics
Communications & Technology
 Diffusion of IT, communications,
nano and bio technologies
 Economic and digital divides
 Social networking - Google,
Twitter and Facebook
National
…the world’s best place to live and do business…

Economy & Productivity






National/Regional Security



Infrastructure, investment, IT platforms
Policy response to climate change
Demographic transitions: population ageing, industry
trends
Healthy workplaces, skills development, collaborations
across sectors
Innovation & research
Globally intelligent and integrated partners with Asia
Pacific region
Global respect as a regional leader and model citizen
Climate Change & Sustainability



Leader in green economy & role in global response
Resilient water, ecological systems, trading schemes
Population policy & immigration programs
National
at the leading (reform) edge…

Governance

Republicanism, rights & reconciliation, citizen engagement
 Emphasis on modernising federation
 Regionally based collaborative governance models – cross sector

Health & Housing

Health status & health equity for all
 Evidence and outcomes based practice & systems
 ‘Smart Health’: preventative, integrated, person centric
 Radical reform in housing sector

Social Inclusion


Inclusion infrastructure across government
Education & training - skills development to find leading edge
 Focus on child development as success indicator
 Wellness footprints: socio-economic & infrastructure planning
Regional - State
system reform & risk negotiators

Benchmark of ‘A Fairer Victoria’

Principles of liveability, sustainability and productivity

Differing generational and locational experiences of risk

Need for indicators beyond system monitors

Negotiating benefits through cooperative federalism

Significant demographic shifts & challenges to equity

Waves of transformation in the health, housing & education

Unknown costs & impacts of GFC – local economies in transition
G21 towards 2050
Five Key Directions
Protect and enhance our environment
Create sustainable settlements
Strengthen our communities
Refocus our economy
Make it happen
Some obvious challenges to
our flexibility and focus
 Strengthen
our commitment to build the necessary capability & skills
to create a shared, desired future
 Stay in touch with, and be touched by, our communities
 Recognise the tension of vested interests that may bring more system
reform, but less positive social change
 Adapt the resources including ourselves to build social equity for
individuals, families and communities in their quality of life
Some obvious challenges to
our flexibility and focus
 Build new coalitions & alliances, and know when to take independent
versus collective action
 Build strategy that strengthens the politics of hope, innovation and
creativity across boundaries and sectors
 Be mindful of the legacy for the next generation in our goals for
positive change
Hope… cannot be separated from how
national debates are framed and from the
reality of living in a globalised world….
…it is built on belief and faith, and the trust
that there is a life worth living in uncertain
times.
‘New philosophies for change’
Mary Zournazi, 2002