Transcript Countries and regions

Megatrends en transities:
Europa’s langetermijn milieu en
klimaatbeleid
18 December 2015 – Megatrends Conference, Brussels
Presentation by Dr. Hans Bruyninckx, Executive Director, EEA
The European Environment Agency
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
The EEA is an EU agency that
operates at the interface of science
and policy.
With a network of more than 300
institutions in 39 European
countries, the EEA provides timely,
reliable and relevant information to
support sustainable development.
EEA work is targeted at EU
institutions, EEA member countries,
civil society and the general public.
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
The European environment – state and outlook 2015
(SOER 2015)
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks.
SOER 2015 informs policy implementation and reflects on opportunities
to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line
with the 2050 vision of the 7th EAP.
SOER 2015 Synthesis report
SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends
Global
megatrends
European
briefings
Cross-country
comparisons
Countries and
regions
11 briefings
25 briefings
9 briefings
39+3 briefings
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
The policy context
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
SUSTAINABILITY
2050
Halt biodiversity loss
20-20-20 targets => 2030
Circular Economy
SDG
Acquis
WFD targets
Fisheries below MSY
MDGs
2014-2018
Vision in 7th EAP
Reduce GHG 80-95
%
Zero impacts (air)
2020/2030
TIME
Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits.
Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative,
circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural
resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected,
valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience.
Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use,
setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.’
Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Sustainability revisited
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
Social
Sustainable
development?
Of course
not!
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Environment
Economy
Living well, within environmental limits
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS
Synthesis
report
01
Integrated assessment of environmental trends
Part 1  Setting the scene: The context for European environmental policy, and the global megatrends that directly and indirectly affect Europe’s environment.
Part 2  Assessing European trends: The trends and outlook for 20 environmental issues grouped under the 3 priority objectives of the 7th Environment Action Programme.
Part 3  Looking ahead: The overall picture of the European environment’s state and outlook, and opportunities to support the transition to a more sustainable society.
Protecting, conserving and enhancing
natural capital
Resource efficiency and
the low-carbon economy
Safeguarding from environmental
risks to health
Terrestrial and freshwater
biodiversity
Material resource efficiency
and material use
Water pollution and related environmental
health risks
Land use and
soil functions
Waste
management
Air pollution and related environmental
health risks
Ecological status of
freshwater bodies
Greenhouse gas emissions and climate
change mitigation
Noise pollution (especially
in urban areas)
Water quality and
nutrient loading
Energy consumption and
fossil fuel use
Urban systems and
grey infrastructure
Air pollution and its
ecosystem impacts
Transport demand and related
environmental impacts
Climate change and related environmental
health risks
Marine and coastal
biodiversity
Industrial pollution to air, soil
and water
Chemicals and related environmental
health risks
Climate change impacts
on ecosystems
Water use and water
quantity stress
Key messages from SOER 2015
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
• Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment,
economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain
• Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to
production and consumption systems, and the rapidly
changing global context
© Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA
• Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by
more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and
innovation
• Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe’s
economy and employment and put Europe at the frontier of
science and innovation
Thematic priority objective 1:
Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
Past (5–10
year) trends
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
20+ years outlook
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Progress to
policy targets

Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity
Land use and soil functions
No target
Ecological status of freshwater bodies

Water quality and nutrient loading

Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts

Marine and coastal biodiversity

Climate change impacts on ecosystems
No target
Improving trends dominate
Largely on track
Trends show mixed picture
Partially on track
Deteriorating trends dominate
Largely not on track



Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.
Thematic priority objective 2:
Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
Past (5–10
year) trends
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
20+ years outlook
Material resource efficiency and material use
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Progress to
policy targets
No target

Waste management
/
Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation
Energy consumption and fossil fuel use

Transport demand and related environmental impacts

Industrial pollution to air, soil and water

Water use and water quantity stress

Improving trends dominate
Largely on track
Trends show mixed picture
Partially on track
Deteriorating trends dominate
Largely not on track



Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.
Thematic priority objective 3:
Safeguarding from environmental risks to health
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
Past (5–10
year) trends
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
20+ years
outlook
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Progress to
policy targets
/
Water pollution and related environmental health risks

Air pollution and related environmental health risks
Noise pollution (especially in urban areas)
/

Urban systems and grey infrastructure
No target
Climate change and related environmental health risks
No target
Chemicals and related environmental health risks
/
Improving trends dominate
Largely on track
Trends show mixed picture
Partially on track
Deteriorating trends dominate
Largely not on track



Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.
The overall picture:
Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
Protecting, conserving
and enhancing natural
capital
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
Resource efficiency
and the low-carbon
economy
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Safeguarding from
environmental risks to
health
Past
(5–10)
year
trends
20+
years
outlook
/
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.
Understanding past trends and future outlooks
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
Two major factors explain the uneven progress and prospects:
© Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA
1. The changing global context
•
Competition for resources
•
Pressures from outside Europe
•
Planetary boundaries
2. Systemic characteristics of environmental
challenges
•
Complexity
•
Uncertainty
•
Environmental, social and economic interdependencies
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS
Global
megatrends
02
Setting the scene
Diverging global population trends
Intensified global competition for resources
Towards a more urban world
Growing pressures on ecosystems
Changing disease burdens
and risks of pandemics
Increasingly severe consequences of climate change
Accelerating technological change
Continued economic growth?
An increasingly multipolar world
Increasing environmental pollution
Diversifying approaches to governance
SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Setting the scene
What are global megatrends?
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
© NASA Earth Observatory
• Global megatrends =
– large-scale
– high impact
– often interdependent
– social, economic, political, environmental or technological
changes.
• Europe’s ecological and societal resilience will be increasingly
affected by those global driving forces.
• This increasing interdependence presents many challenges but
also many opportunities for Europe to shape its future.
Related content
The changing global context
Global megatrends affect Europe’s resource needs
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Population
Technology
Economy
Environment
Governance
Related content
….global megatrends strongly
impact Europe’s ability to
meet its basic resource needs
in the coming decades
The changing global context
Diverging global population trends
•
•
•
•
Growing population, but at a slower rate
Asia, Africa (!) on the rise
Older
Migration
Related content
(UN, 2013)
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
43
%
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
... growth of the global
population by 2050
SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Towards a more urban world
GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING
Towards a more urban world
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
• Urban areas in developing countries will absorb most of the
global population increase, with 67% of people living in cities
by 2050.
• Most of the growth is expected to be in megacities
• Compact cities are the most efficient and environmentally
sustainable
© Adela Nistora, Environment & Me /EEA
• Urban growth is driving land-use change in Europe
• Integrated urban management could increase the
environmental resilience of Europe’s cities, particularly in the
east and south.
Related content
SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Towards a more urban world
By 2050, 67% of the world population is expected to live in cities
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
Urban and rural population in developed and less developed world regions, 1950–2050
Related content
Source: UN World urbanization prospects: The 2012 revision.
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
The changing global context
Growing urban middle class
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
Share of middle class
consumers
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
The global middle class
• Expected growth from 1.8 billion
in 2010 to 4.9 billion by 2030, with
Asia accounting for 85 % of that
growth
170 %
...growth of the global
middle class by 2030
• Challenge: rapidly growing burden
of resource use and pollution
Related content
(Brookings Institution, 2012)
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
The changing global context
Continued economic growth?
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
In the period 20102050, global GDP is
expected to grow by…
300 %
Related content
(OECD, 2014)
The changing global context
Intensified global competition for resources
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
• World materials use has grown 10-fold since 1900
• European economy structurally dependent on imports of raw materials
Related content
(Krausmann et al., 2009)
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
World resource use is expected to at least double in
the next three decades
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
200.0
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
Metals
Fossil fuels
100.0
Minerals
Biomass
80.0
© Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1980
1990
2000
2008
2010*
Souce: SERI (2013): SERI Global Material Flows Database. 2013 Edition.
Available at: www.materialflows.net
2020*
2030*
2040*
2050*
The changing global context
Intensified global competition for resources
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
Proportion of global production of EU critical raw materials within a single country, 2010–2012
Related content
(EC, 2014)
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Accelerating technological change
GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING
Accelerating technological change
© Keith Arkins, Environment & Me /EEA
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
•
The pace of technological change, particularly in the fields of
information, communication, nano- and bio-technologies, is
unprecedented.
•
This provides opportunities to reduce humanity’s impact on the
environment and reliance on non-renewable natural resources.
•
The risks and uncertainties associated with technological innovation
can be managed using regulatory frameworks and the precautionary
principle.
•
By recalibrating its institutions, policies and environmental knowledge
base, Europe can support better risk management, while enhancing
innovation and the diffusion of new technologies.
Related content
SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Growing pressures on ecosystems
GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING
Growing pressures on ecosystems
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
•
The demands of a growing global population with rapidly changing
consumption patterns for food, mobility and energy are exerting everincreasing pressure on the Earth's ecosystems and their life-supporting
services.
•
In combination with climate change, these changes raise concerns
about current meat-heavy diets, water use and strategies for bioenergy
production.
•
Exacerbated by climate change and continued pollution, rates of global
habitat destruction and biodiversity loss are predicted to increase,
including in Europe.
•
Continued degradation of global ecosystems and their services will
influence poverty and inequality, potentially driving increased migration.
Related content
© CIFOR
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Growing pressures on ecosystems
Global biodiversity loss will continue, with the strongest impacts on poor people in
developing countries
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
Terrestrial mean species abundance, 2010–2050
Related content
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050.
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Growing pressures on ecosystems
The ever rising pressure on the Earth’s ecosystems is fuelled by meat consumption and bioenergy demand
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
Transnational land acquisition, 2005–2009
Related content
Source: Rulli et al., 2013.
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Increasingly severe consequences of climate change
GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING
Increasingly severe consequences of
climate change
© Manuela Aldeghi, Environment & Me /EEA
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
•
Recent changes in the global climate are unprecedented over millennia and
will continue.
•
Climate change is expected increasingly to threaten natural ecosystems and
biodiversity, slow economic growth, erode global food security, harm human
health and increase inequality.
•
The risks of pervasive and irreversible impacts are expected to increase. They
could, however, be reduced by further emissions abatement and adaptation
measures, building on past actions in Europe and internationally.
•
Key risks for Europe include flood events, droughts and other weather
extremes that damage ecosystems and biodiversity, as well as infrastructure
and human well-being.
Related content
Climate change
impacts on
ecosystems
Water use and
water stress
Urban systems
and grey
infrastructure
Climate change
& related envi.
health risks
Climate change
impacts and
adaptation
SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Increasingly severe consequences of climate change
Global temperature increases of 4C or more by 2100 would create significant risks to global food security
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Projected change in global aggregate crop yields due to climate change, 2010–2109
Source: IPPC, 2014.
Related content
Climate change
impacts on
ecosystems
Water use and
water stress
Urban systems
and grey
infrastructure
Climate change
& related envi.
health risks
Climate change
impacts and
adaptation
SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Increasing environmental pollution
GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING
Increasing environmental pollution
© Jonathan Díaz Marbá, Environment & Me /EEA
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
•
Globally, levels of air pollution and releases of nutrients from agriculture and
wastewater remain high, causing acidification and eutrophication in
ecosystems, and losses in agricultural yield.
•
In the coming decades, overall pollution levels are projected to increase
strongly, particularly in Asia.
•
Although Europe’s pollutant releases are expected to continue declining,
European ecosystems and citizens are likely to be affected by developments in
other regions.
•
For example, despite a fall in air pollutant emissions there has not been an
equivalent improvement in air quality across Europe, partly as a result of the
transboundary transport of air pollutants.
Related content
Air pollution &
its ecosystem
impacts
Industrial
pollution to air,
soil and water
Air pollution
& related envi.
health risks
Air pollution
Air pollution
The Changing global context
Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
25
%
Urban air
pollution: main
environmental
cause of
premature
mortality
worldwide in
2050
Climate change
is likely to
Related content
exacerbate this
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
...of the global burden of disease and deaths can be attributed to
environmental causes (mostly PM, ozone)
(OECD, 2012)
SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Diversifying approaches to governance
GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING
Diversifying approaches to governance
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
•
In the context of rapid globalisation, governments are facing a mismatch
between the increasingly long-term, global, systemic challenges facing
society and their more national and short-term focus and powers.
•
The need for more coordinated governance at the global scale has been
reflected in the proliferation of international environmental agreements,
particularly during the 1990s.
•
More recently, businesses and civil society have also taken an
increasing role in governance.
•
This broadening of approaches is welcome but it raises concerns about
coordination and effectiveness, as well as accountability and
transparency.
Related content
© Alan Kotok
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
GHG emissions
& CC mitigation
Mitigating
climate change
Mitigating
climate change
The changing global context
What can we conclude?
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
• Boundaries between developments in Europe and other parts of the
world are growing more blurred.
• Europe’s success in achieving its environmental, social and economic
goals will depend on its ability to respond to the long-term and global
contexts.
• Europeans have two main clusters of response options:
• Seek to shape global change in ways that mitigate and manage risks,
and create opportunities (e.g. unilateral and multilateral efforts to
mitigate environmental pressures, etc.).
• Find ways to adapt to global trends (e.g. seeking to anticipate and
avoid harm by increasing the resilience of social, environmental and
economic systems, etc).
Related content
Global systems of production and consumption need to be reconfigured
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Within
environmental
limits
(Global Footprint Network, 2012; UNDP, 2014)
‘good life’
Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits.
Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative,
circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural
resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected,
valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience.
Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use,
setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.’
Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Systemic environmental challenges require systemic
solutions
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Not just incremental efficiency gains
Source: Tesla
but fundamental transitions in food, energy, mobility, urban, finance and fiscal systems
through profound changes in dominant practices, policies and thinking.
Cars are more efficient but contribute to a range of
negative impacts on people’s quality of life in cities
160
Index, 1990 = 100
150
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Growth
GDP (fixed prices)
140
Total car km travelled
130
120
110
Resource
use
100
Total fuel consumption
of private cars
Specific fuel
consumption of average
car (litres/km)
Total CO2 emissions of
cars
90
Efficiency
80
Stock of cars
Homes are now more energy efficient, but also much
larger, increasing pressures on land, water and materials
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
Index 1990 = 1
1.3
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
Growth
1.2
1.1
1
Resource
use
0.9
0.8
Efficiency
0.7
Source: SCP023 indicator (draft)
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Total energy
consumption of
housing stock for
space heating
Energy
consumption per
dwelling for space
heating
Energy
consumption per
m2 for space
heating
Growth in floor
area of housing
(19 EU countries)
From challenge to response
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
The EU policy and related activities offer a strong basis for action:
• 7EAP enabling objectives (implementation, innovation,
investment, information)
• Circular economy package
• Raw Materials Initiative
• EU climate policy
• Sustainable Development Goals
Personal reflections on the outcome of COP21
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
- 2° (and 1,5°!)
- 2100 perspective
- Global
- Binding
© Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA
- MRV
- Deep and fast changes
- Level playing field
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Rapid system change and megatrends
• Internet since 1994
• Obesity in the US 2
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1985
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1986
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1987
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4”
person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1988
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1989
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1990
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1991
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1992
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1993
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1994
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1995
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1996
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1997
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
≥20%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1998
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
≥20%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1999
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
≥20%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2000
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
≥20%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2001
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
≥25%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2002
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
≥25%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2003
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
≥25%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2004
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
≥25%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2005
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
25%–29%
≥30%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2006
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
25%–29%
≥30%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2007
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
25%–29%
≥30%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2008
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
25%–29%
≥30%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2009
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
25%–29%
≥30%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2010
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
25%–29%
≥30%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1990, 2000, 2010
(*BMI 30, or about 30 lbs. overweight for 5’4” person)
2000
1990
2010
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
25%–29%
≥30%
40 jaar kennisopbouw
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
Evolutie in probleemdefinitie en kennisbenadering




Zware industriële pollutie
Single issues
DPSIR denken
Systeembenaderingen: probleemanalyse; denkkaders;
oplossingen
Evolutie in disciplinaire interesse




Chemici, biologen, ingenieurs
Economen, geneeskundigen, geografen, geologen
Bestuurskundigen, ruimtelijke ordeners, juristen, filosofen
Psychologen, historici, …
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Toekomstgerichte kennisontwikkeling
SYNTHESIS
REPORT




GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Langetermijndenken
Systeembenadering
Betekenis van limieten in denken, onderzoek en praktijk?
Methodologisch? Scenario’s, future’s studies, forcasting/sight, back-casting, distance to target, gap analysis,
cost/benefit analysis 2.0
 Onzekerheden, non-lineariteit
 Niches, innovatie, R&D
 Sterke aandacht voor lock-ins, backlash, breakdown risks
Explore SOER 2015 online: eea.europa.eu/soer
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