Transcript on 2010 levels - Australian-German Climate and Energy College

Embargo until 26th October 2015; 16:00 London Time
National post-2020 greenhouse gas
targets and diversity-aware leadership
Background slides.
Malte Meinshausen, Louise Jeffery, Johannes Guetschow, Yann Robiou du
Pont, Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Niklas Höhne, Michel den Elzen,
Sebastian Oberthür, and Nicolai Meinshausen
Nature Climate Change, 26th October 2015, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
The problem
1. All countries agree to keep global mean temperatures at
least below 2°C.
2. All the countries‘ self-set targets are 2°C compatible under
their own understanding of fairness.
3. Adding up all countries‘ emissions, a least-cost path
towards staying below 2°C will however be missed by a
wide margin.
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
One solution
1. A major economy, say ‚country A‘, starts to lead in the
international climate effort and sets an ambitious target.
2. All other countries adopt ‚comparable‘ targets to that
country A. Comparable under their own understanding of
fairness.
3. If the target of country A is sufficiently ambitious, a selfdifferentiation can then enable the collective 2°C target to
be achieved.
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
What are 2°C compatible emissions?
By 2025:
• Lower global emissions to 15% below 2010, which is 10% above 1990
levels.
By 2030:
• Lower global emissions to 22% below 2010, which is 1990 levels.
Those are approximately median values for any IPCC AR5 pathway that stays within the 1000 GtCO2
cumulative carbon budget limit. Methods see paper.
Fig. 1 in Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Fig. 1 in Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Fig. 1 in Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Fig. 1 in Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Fig. 1 in Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Global emission shares:
• China accounts for a quarter of global emissions, 25%, in 2010.
• Next biggest emitter was the USA with 16%.
• EU28 comes in third with 11%.
INDCs:
• China‘s INDC is a ‚peaking by 2030‘ pledge combined with an intensity
target, quantified at approximately 35% above 2010 emissions by 2030
• The INDC of the USA is a 26-28% reduction below 2005 by 2025.
• The INDC of the EU28 is a 40% reduction below 1990 by 2030.
Numbers use GWP.AR4 metric. excl. Landuse emissions. Fig. S3 in Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826 and
Climatecollege.uniemelb.edu.au/indc-factsheets for per-capita emissions
Current INDCs and leadership targets of
USA, EU28 and China
The pie represents global GHG emissions in 2010, incl. landuse. Colors correspond to the regions as
indicated in the world map. Main emission data source is PRIMAP, a composite dataset combining
UNFCCC official data, where available, CDIAC, EDGAR and other authoritative data sources.
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
48 Gt
The pie represents global GHG emissions in 2010, incl. landuse. Colors correspond to the regions as
indicated in the world map. Main emission data source is PRIMAP, a composite dataset combining
UNFCCC official data, where available, CDIAC, EDGAR and other authoritative data sources.
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
48 Gt
The pie represents global GHG emissions in 2010, incl. landuse. Colors correspond to the regions as
indicated in the world map. Main emission data source is PRIMAP, a composite dataset combining
UNFCCC official data, where available, CDIAC, EDGAR and other authoritative data sources.
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
48 Gt
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
48 Gt
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Percentages indicate changes
of 2025 emissions (colored
areas) relative to 2010
emissions (grey areas in
background).
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
World emissions by 2025
would be 6% above 2010
levels, if other countries
adopted ‚comparable‘
targets to the US.
Comparability taken as the
more favourable approach
for every country.
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
If the USA were to adopt a
target of -52% below its
2010 levels (54% below
2005), global emissions
could be 15% below 2010,
which is the 2°C waypoint.
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
By 2030, if every country
‚followed‘ Australia‘s
target of 26-28% below
2005, then global
emissions would be 2%
above 2010 levels.
By 2030, Australia would
have to reduce its
emissions by 66% in order
to act as leading by
example, putting the world
on a 2°C track.
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
By 2030, world emissions
would be practically at
2010 levels, if all countries
were to follow the 40% EU
target (which is 27% below
2010).
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
By 2030, the EU28 would
have to reduce 61% below
2010 or 67% below 1990,
if the world should regard
EU28 as a leader and be
on a 2°C track.
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
If all countries were to
follow China, with a
supposedly 35% increase
of emisisons until 2030
over 2010, then global
emissions would increase
by a third.
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
China would have to
reduce its emissions by
about a third, rather than
increase by a third, in
order to be a leading
example for other
countries and put the
world on a 2°C track.
US
(2025)
EU
(2030)
China
(2030)
Australia
(2030)
INDC
(announced)
-26 to -28%
(on 2005 levels)
40%
(on 1990 levels)
Peak by 2030
-26 to -28%
(on 2005 levels)
-23 to -25%
INDC
(on 2010 levels)
-22 to -24%
-27%
+35%
(estimate)
Towards Distributive
justice
-29%
-41%
-32%
-30%
Corrective justice
-51%
-49%
-4%
-65%
-52%
-61%
-32%
-66%
Leadership
(on 2010 levels)
Meinshausen et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change, dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826
Country
More information & interactive results at:
www.mitigation-contributions.org
An interactive data appendix with this study‘s results, allowing the user
to probe any G20 country‘s target, if other world countries were doing
‚the same‘. The paper is available from 26th October 2015, 4pm London
time: dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2826