Transcript Slide 1 - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Pathways of
future emissions & climate change
For the Australian Adaptation Practitioner
Malte Meinshausen, 26th June 2012
The University of Melbourne &
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Thanks to Urs Beyerle, T. Corti, J. Arblaster,
D. Karoly, J. Rogelj, K. Frieler, L. Warzawski.
R. Stoeckli, The Blue Marble. Adapted by M. Meinshausen
International Emission Targets for Australia:
5% 2020 Pledge seems slow start for reaching 2050.
High 2020 Pledge of -25%
below 2000 – roughly in line
with -80% by 2050
Own calculations based on PRIMAP and UNFCCC data.
Australia’s domestic mitigation important.
Australia’s coal associated with big emissions overseas.
CO2 Emissions due to the
overseas burning of coal
from a single new Australian
coal mine
(1.31 GtCO2 over its 30 year lifetime;
Wandoan XSTRATA, Queensland)
Own calculations based on PRIMAP and UNFCCC data. For Wandoan case, see more information at: http://www.envlaw.com.au/wandoan.html
R. Stoeckli, The Blue Marble. Adapted by M. Meinshausen
Indicative 2020 Target for global
emissions: 44 ±2GtCO2eq, if we
want to stay below 2°C.
The new “SRES” scenarios for
climate model intercomparisons:
The Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
Cf. Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
Global Peaking of Emissions
before 2020 essential.
See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
“Adaptation challenge” due to
negative emission necessity:
How can large biomass & CCS
implementation take place
without endangering food
production, ecosystems etc?
See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
International goal: Keeping
warming to below 2°C relative to
pre-industrial levels (with likely
chance). In the long-term, this
target is slightly more stringent
than 450ppm CO2eq.
International UNFCCC language on 2C target:
“[…] reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as
to hold the increase in global average temperature
below 2 ºC above preindustrial levels […]”
Cancún Agreements (2010), Decision 1/CP.16, para I.4
“Noting with grave concern the significant gap
between […] pledges […] and […] pathways consistent
with having a likely chance of holding the increase in
global average temperature below 2 ºC or 1.5 ºC above
pre-industrial levels”
Durban Platform (2011), Decision 1/CP.17, preamble
Context: +2°C warming last
time maybe 3 to 5 Million
years ago.
Upper inlet: Hansen et al. PNAS, submitted, Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature
Morice et al. JGR, 2012, doi:10.1029/2011JD017187
Multi-model historical
experiments with climate models
(AOGCMs and ESMs) in the
latest/ongoing intercomparison
project “CMIP5”: Unprecedented
amounts of data.
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
Following the highest future
emission scenario: Crossing
global warming of +2°C by 2040,
+5°C by 2100...
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
... and +12°C by 2200 ?!
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
RCP4.5 heading for
+2.5 to +3°C in longterm.
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
RCP3-PD/2.6 staying
below 2°C with likely
chance.
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
Regional Change of precipitation
& temperature important for
impacts & adaptation -> high
correlation with global-mean
temperatures.
Fig. 3 in Frieler, Meinshausen et al. 2012, J. Clim, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00199.1
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Nature, 16 Feb 2012
Background Slides
For discussion.
Trend preserving bias correction
RCP8.5
Daily temperatures for July,
Amazon region
Bias corrected
Original data from HadGEM2
Source: Frieler et al. ISI-MIP, 2012
Meinshausen et al. 2009, Nature, Fig 3
(Australia Government Figure with red added by Meinshausen 2011, Wandoan Court Case Material)