Transcript Last Lecture

Business (as Usual) and
the Environment
Mortar Board Last Lecture
March 3, 2004
My teachers.
Economy - Environment
economy
environment
Business View
economy
environment
An Environmentalist View
economy
environment
Sustainable View
environment
economy
Global Warming
www.bongonews.com
MARCH 19, 2003
“After a Cold Winter, Europe Asks the
US to Increase Global Warming”
BRUSSELS — After suffering through a much colder than usual winter, leaders of
the European Community have appealed to the United States to do more to increase
global warming.
BBC News
Friday, 9 January, 2004, 01:14 GMT
http://news.bbc.co.uk
“Climate change is the most severe
problem we are facing today.”
- Sir David King, UK government’s chief science adviser
Greenhouse Gases
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Carbon dioxide –
fossil fuel combustion.
Methane – fossil fuel
production, decomposition of
organic wastes.
Nitrous oxide - agricultural and
industrial activities, as well as
during combustion of solid
waste and fossil fuels.
Atmospheric CO2
Humans emit 24 billion tons per year.
Average Earth Temperature increased
1oF during 20th Century
Current temperature is the highest in
1000 years.
Projected Global Temperature Change
Temperature Increase: 3 oF – 10 oF by 2100
Impacts
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Rising global temperatures
are expected to raise sea
level,
Change precipitation and
other local climate
conditions.
Changing regional climate
could alter forests, crop
yields, and water supplies
Damage ecosystems.
Deserts may expand into
existing rangelands.
Extinction of Species
Recent Letter in “Nature”
Extinction risk from climate
change
Nature 427, 145 - 148 (08 January 2004);
doi:10.1038/nature02121
On the web at www.nature.com
Results of the Study
“ When the average of the three methods and two
dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climatewarming scenarios produce lower projections of
species committed to extinction (18%) than
mid-range (24%) and maximum-change (35%)
scenarios.”
Between 1/5 and 1/3 of all species
will become extinct in your lifetime!
Most of us ignored this report.
Most people ignore
environmental problems,
do not understand them,
remain inactive, hope
everything works out well,
or don’t connect the
science with reality.
A few were skeptical.
There is a very
strong consensus
among scientists
that global
warming has a
dominant
anthropogenic
component.
The US has not developed a CO2
Reduction Plan
Bush administration
emphasizes energy
production and
consumption.
Why is the US responding in this
way?
Since global warming
will affect us, our
friends, our families,
and the world around
us, we should take
responsible actions to
mitigate its effects.
Compare to US response to
air pollution!
By 1970, air pollution had become a
major US health problem
Pollutants
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Gases – CO, SOx, O3, NOx, and VOC
Particulates and aerosols
Photochemical Smog
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Ozone is formed when
UV radiation, high
temperatures, Nitrogen
oxides, and VOCs
combine.
Automobiles are the
main source.
Acid Rain
Sulfuric acid (H2SO4) and nitric (HNO3) acid are
formed and precipitated on vegetation in lakes and
streams. Automobiles and coal plants are the main
sources.
The Environmental Protection
Agency
Created in 1970
EPA
Environmental Protection Agency
Mike Leavitt
Christine Todd
Whitman
Clean Air Acts
1955, 1963, 1970, 1990
Command and Control Strategy
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Automobile emission standards are an example of
the “Command and Control” strategy.
Emission standards are set and enforced by EPA.
Catalytic Converter
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Converts VOC, CO, NOx -> H2O, N2, O2, CO2
Catalysts are platinum, palladium, rhodium or a ceramic.
Add $500 to cost of car.
Have EPA Strategies Worked for
Pollution Emission by cars?
Emission by On-Road Vehicles ( million short tons)
Pollutant
1970
2001
VOC
16.9 (41*)
4.9
NOx
11.5 (28*)
8.2
CO
163 (400*)
75
• Estimate of current value with no pollution control program, business as usual.
Assuming 143 percent increase in vehicle miles.
Power Plant Emissions
Use Cap and Trade strategy.
Cap and Trade
• Utilities are assigned allowances - permission to emit
a ton of sulfur dioxide
• Utilities can sell unused allowances or carry them over
into the next year.
Scrubbers
Remove SO2 from coal plant exhaust.
Adds at least 10% to the cost of a coal plant.
The Clean Air Act Worked!
Why is dealing with Global Warming
so much more difficult?
Global Warming is not a clear and
present danger.
Global Warming does not
immediately threaten human health.
Global Warming is not the result of
an impurity like sulfur in coal.
Global Warming is the direct result
of consuming Oil, Natural Gas, and
Coal. We get 85% of our energy from
fossil fuel
C + O2  CO2
There are no technical fixes like
scrubbers or catalytic converters.
Costs of mitigating global warming
are seen by some to be greater than
costs of adapting to global warming.
Global Warming is not a local
problem.
Compare to US response to
stratospheric ozone depletion!
Depletion of the Ozone Layer
Antarctic Ozone Hole was a clear
and present danger. Science was
well-understood.
Human health as well as ecology
was threatened .
Technical fixes and favorable
economics led to international
treaties.
Montreal Protocol
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29 countries plus the
European Union signed
initially
All have agreed to a phaseout schedule
Globally emission of ODPs
has been drastically reduced
to around 10% of original
levels.
Kyoto Protocol
The US does not
support the Kyoto
Protocol, an
international treaty
to reduce global
warming.
US Objections to Kyoto
Developing nations
not bound, initially.
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Reducing fossil fuel
use would disrupt US
and global economy.
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But, we can not avoid our
responsibility.
US has 5%
of world
population,
but emits
25% of
GHG.
The scientific evidence is solid.
We can not wait to see what
happens.
Species extinction is imminent.
Extinctions are permanent.

Recovery from
mass extinctions
takes millions of
years.
The next great extinction event
will be caused by humans.
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KT Extinction Event
All dinosaurs
became extinct.
65 million years ago.
Caused by meteor
impact.
Global Change is our greatest
environmental challenge.
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Threat is based on
computer models not
measurements.
The damage is in the
future, not the present.
Mitigation may be
expensive.
Mitigation requires global
action.
Effects are irreversible.
What can we do?
Mitigation
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Reduce CO2
emissions by
reducing
consumption of
fossil fuel.
Protect rainforests
and other CO2
sinks.
Adaptation
Protect
endangered
species with larger refuges.
Avoid flooding risks.
Protect water supplies.
Protect grasslands and
agricultural lands against
overuse.
Impacts depend on emissions.
We must switch from fossil fuels to
sustainable energy
Future sustainable energy mix will
include many sources.
Conservation
 Passive solar
 Active solar
 Photovoltaic
 Wind
 Hydroelectric
 Geothermal
 Fuel cell technologies
 Hybrid electric
vehicles
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Reducing fossil fuel consumption
alleviates environmental problems
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Reduce CO2 emissions
Reduce air pollution
Reduce extraction
impacts (e.g. oil spills)
Reduce use of water and
other resources.
Global Oil Resources will be increasingly
concentrated in Middle East
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
Iran
Kuwait
UAE
Russia
United States
26%
11%
10%
10%
6%
5%
3%
Global Problem Requires
Global Action
We can learn from
Less Developed
Countries and we
can help them
avoid our mistakes
Switching from fossil fuel must be
based on international treaties.
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Cap and Trade could
work on global scale.
Include the costs of
current and future
environmental impacts.
Let market forces
control global energy
development.
Encourage innovation.
Sustainable Development
Rio Declaration on Environment and
Development
Principle 3
The right to development must be fulfilled so as to
equitably meet developmental and
environmental needs of present and future
generations.
Sustainable Future?
We must be
concerned with the
economic and
environmental
needs of future
generations as well
as our own needs.
Questions?