Transcript Warming in the polar region and its implication to Malaysia.

Warming in the polar regions and
its implications to Malaysia.
Azizan Abu Samah
(I would like to acknowledge that some of the
slides were taken from the talk by Dr Turner
and Dr Stoddart at the MISA 3 and ICSU
(ROAP)-SCAR forum on Impact of Rapid Polar
Warming and others from the IPCC and
NOAA)
Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis
Forum: Understanding the Implications of
Rapid Warming in the Polar Regions on
Earth Systems
Kota Kinabula, 23 March, 2007
 Changes in greenhouse gases aerosols, solar radiation and land
surface properties alter the energy balance of the climate system.
Radiative forcing is used to compare how human and natural factors
drive warming or cooling influences on global climate. (2)
 Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide have increased markedly as a result of
human activities since 1750 due primarily to
fossil fuel use and land-use change. (1)
 The globally averaged net effect of
human activities since 1750 has been one
of warming.
 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by increases in global
average temperatures, melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.
 Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half
century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years.
Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th
century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations.
 Continued emissions would cause further warming and changes in the global climate
system during the 21st century larger during the 20th century.
There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming, winds pattern,
precipitation, extremes and ice.
 Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries even if
greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized.
Observed global warming.
• Observed Global Land Temperature Trend.
• The three hot spots of rapid polar
warming:
• Alaska
• Siberia
• Peninsular Antarctica
Surface Temperature Changes
Global annual combined land surface air temperature and SST (°C) (red) relative to
the 1961–1990 mean. The blue line reflects decadal smoothing. (IPCC)
From Hansen et al. (1999)
Natural Climatic Variability and
Simulation of Sea Ice Retreat in the
Arctic.
• The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Northern
Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM)
• The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
• Comparison of Observation of Sea Ice
Retreat with models simulation.
• A model prediction of sea ice retreat for
1985 and 2085.
Positive Phase
Negative Phase
The North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO) and the
Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM)
Courtesy LDEO, Columbia Univ.
The Arctic Oscillation in Winter
From Turner et al., 2006 Int J Climatol
The Siberian
Warming
Discharge from the 6 largest Eurasian rivers has increased
by 7% between 1936 and 1999, equivalent to an increase
from 0.058 to 0.062 Sv
Peterson et al, 2002
The Alaskan Warming
Total Change
1949 - 2003
Barrow
1.7°C
Kotzebue
1.5°C
Nome
1.5°C
St Paul
1.1°C
Bettles
2.3°C
Fairbanks
McGrath 2.1°C
Big Delta
2.1°C
Talkeetna 1.8°C
2.7°C
Bethel
Gulkana
Anchorage
2.1°C
1.6°C
1.9°C
Yakutat
King Salmon Homer
1.4°C Juneau
2.4°C
2.3°C
1.9°C
Cold Bay
1.0°C
Annette
1.2°C
1999
1995
1991
1987
1983
1979
1975
1971
1967
1963
1959
1955
1951
PDO Index
Statewide Temperature Departure and PDO
(°C)
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Impact on the sea ice
•
Observed summer sea
ice extent 2006
Model Simulation of Sea Ice for 1985
Model simulation for sea ice 2085
Warming of the Antarctic
Peninsular.
• Observed warming.
• Influence of the Southern Annular Mode
(SAM)
Faraday Winter Temperature and Ice Concentration
to the West of the Peninsula
0.1
0.2
-4
Temperature
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
-2
0
0.3
-6
0.4
-8
0.5
-10
0.6
-12
0.7
-14
0.8
-16
0.9
Temp
Conc
Mean ice concentration
0
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM)
• The principal mode of variability in
the atmospheric circulation of the
Southern Hemisphere (SH).
• Also known as the:
High Latitude Mode
Antarctic Oscillation
• Synchronous anomalies of opposite
sign in Antarctica and the midlatitudes: ‘see-saw’.
• Equivalent barotropic: revealed as
the leading EOF in different
atmospheric fields throughout the
troposphere and lower stratosphere.
Source: Todd Mitchell (http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/aao/)
• The SAM can be taken as the
difference in mean sea level
pressure between 40 and 65S
Recent Changes in the SAM
Seasonal values of the SAM derived from observations (bar chart) with
annual values overlain as the black line
Increasing Flow Over the Antarctic Peninsula During the Summer Leading to
Loss of the Ice Shelves as the SAM has Shifted into it’s Positive Phase
Divergence of model simulations
• Winter
surface
(skin)
temperature
linear trend:
last 50 years
• Large model
spread
Dr.Turner Conclude
• There have been widespread increases of
temperature, loss of permafrost and a reduction in
sea ice in the Arctic during recent decades
• The major surface changes in the Antarctic have
been confined to the Antarctic Peninsula
• Strong climate system interactions and feedbacks
complicate the separation of natural variability and
the effects of Man’s activity
• Modes of climate variability, such as the NAO and
the PDO are extremely important in influencing
regional climate change
Conclusion II
• The shift of the NAO/AO into it’s positive phase has
certainly played a role in the Siberian warming
• The eastern Antarctic Peninsula changes have been
a result of increasing westerly winds
• The warming on the western side of the Peninsula
has been a result of a decrease in sea ice, although
the reasons for this are unknown at present
• Predictions for the next century suggest increasing
temperatures, greater precipitation and a loss of
snow cover and permafrost
Sea Level Rise
Currently rising at about 3 mm per year
50% from thermal expansion of the
ocean
25% from glaciers and ice caps
7% from Greenland
7% from Antarctica
We expect to see a 20-50 cm rise in sea
level over next century under sresa1b
scenario.
The range of scenarios extent from 20 – 60
cm.
Assuming the current rate of ice discharge
from Antarctica
“Net loss of ice mass could occur if
dynamical ice discharge dominates the ice
sheet mass balance” – IPCC 2007
Oceanographic Changes –
Antarctic Bottom Water
• Antarctic Bottom
Water is the densest
water mass in the
world’s ocean and
plays a major role in
the global ocean
circulation
• Loss of sea ice and
ice shelves may
result in less
production of AABW,
with consequent
global impacts
Ocean acidification occurs when CO2 absorption
levels increase and lower the pH
In Southern Ocean aragonite is unstable at
500ppm CO2. Critical point is 600ppm CO2
currently 380ppm
Evidence of Cretaceous marine extinctions when
CO2 levels were last at high levels of CO2
Changes to the
calcification rate of
corals
Looking at the variation of monsoon onset
associated with ENSO as a proxy of possible
impact of climate change to Malaysia.
• Use of 850 mb wind to determine onset of
monsoon.
The mean annual 850 mb wind over Malaysia
Peninsular Malaysia (850 kPa wind) – Showing on set of
South West Monsoon and Northeast Monsoon
North Borneo (i.e. Sarawak and Sabah of East Malaysia)
Figure 5: Time-latitude distribution of the climatological (1971 – 2000)
pentad mean 850 hPa winds (ms-1) averaged between 97o E and 108o E (for
Peninsular Malaysia, top) and between 108o E and 120o E (for East
Malaysia, bottom). The zero contour line separates winds having easterly
and westerly components.
Variation of Onset Dates of the
Monsoon with SOI.
• Note the delay of the SW monsoon.
• Earlier onset of the Northeast Monsoon
during ENSO periods.
Figure 10: Annual variations of onset dates of southwest monsoon (open circle, bottom) and
northeast monsoon (dark circle, top) in Malaysia. The horizontal lines are the mean onset dates
of the respective monsoons while the vertical lines indicate significant El Nino years.
Figure 11: Monthly variations of Southern Oscillation Index
from 1971 to 2005 (Source: US Climate Prediction Center) .
Correlation
Coefficient
Southwest
Monsoon
-0.35
Northeast
Monsoon
0 .37
(a JJA)
(b ENSO ANOMALY)
c- ND (NE Onset)
d ENSO Anomaly
e
Jan- Feb
f
Figure 13: Composite (1979 – 1998) 850 hPa winds (m/s) and selected olr (shaded, w/m^2)
contour levels for (a) June-July-August, (c) November-December, (e) January-February and
their anomalies (olr shown as contours here) during significant El Nino years (1982/83,
1991/92, 1994/95, and 1997/98) for (b) June-July-August, (d) November-December and (f)
January-February. [Note: 1986/87 El Nino is excluded as it commenced in November 1986
and ended in September 1987.]
(a) Normal
ENSO
Figure 16(i) : Composite (1979 – 1998) Walker
Circulations (m/s, averaged between 2.5 S and 7.5
N) for June-July-August (a) during normal year and
(b) , during significant El Nino years (1982/83,
1991/92, 1994/95, and 1997/98). [Note: Solid lines
are streamlines.]
What can be concluded from this proxy study ?
1. The effect of topography is very important. Hence research effort in downscaling
2. The response to the change brought by the ENSO that influence our climate is
a) Inter-hemispheric covering the subtropical high of both hemisphere.
b) The tropical Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean plays an important role.
We need to know more about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and
the Indian Ocean Dipole.
c) The monsoon response to the ENSO perturbation is complex.
3. We need to increase effort in downscaling our climate change model from global
to regional.
4. We need to research on how the warming of Siberia and PDO effect our
monsoon.
What effects of rapid polar warming
can impact on Malaysia
• The decrease in sea ice will open the Arctic to
new navigation routes, resource exploitation and
ecosystem changes.
• The thermohaline oceanic may change and may
impact on nutrient transport and fisheries in our
region.
• Predicted moderate sea level rise may also
impact on our coastal resources.
• Increase acidification of the ocean may impact
on our corals and marine ecosystem.
Akal sama dipintal,
Daya sama di cuba.
Berat sama dipikul,
Ringan sama dijinjing.
Thank you