Transcript Southeast Asia - hydrological events - START

AIACC Regional Study AS07
Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to
Changing Water Resources and Extreme
Hydrological due to Climate Change
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Part 1: Introduction to AIACC regional study AS07
Part 2: What decision will you influence with the result of your
project?
•
What are the key analyses that you will undertake to achieve this
and what methods will you use?
•
What will you incorporate into your project from the workshop that
will add to the value of your project for the decision makers that
you intend to influence?
Part 3: Incorporate into framework
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Southeast Asia Regional
Vulnerability to Changing
Water Resources and
Extreme Hydrological due
to Climate Change
Area of study:
Mekong River Basin
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Climate Change
• Temperatures
Hydrological effects
• Precipitation
• Windspeed/direction
• River flows, runoff
• Frequency/magnitude of floods
• frequency/magnitude of droughts
Possible effects on the study area
• altered water temperatures
• altered water quality, modified nutrient content, increased salinity
• altered water levels, water table
• altered water availability, water storage capacity
• flood patterns : reduced/increased flooding, altered flood timing
• modified habitats, obstruction of migration routes
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Sector
Agriculture
Water
resources
Potential
Impact
Adaptation
Options
Adaptability Vulnerability*
• reduced
productivity
• management
and policy
changes
Low
Highly
Vulnerable
• rural / urban
water supply
constraints
•saltwater
intrusion
•eutrophication
• alternative
water supplies
•water
allocation and
pricing
•reduce
nutrient flows
Low
Highly
Vulnerable
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Sector
Potential
Impact
Adaptation
Options
Aquatic
ecosystems
• river and inland
wetland
ecosystem
changes
•wetland and
biodiversity loss
• physical
interventions
•increased
protected areas
and wildlife
refuge
Human
settlements
• increased
impacts of flood,
storm surge, sea
level rise
• relief aids
•zoning and
disaster planning
•warning system
Adaptability Vulnerability*
Low
Highly
Vulnerable
Low
Highly
Vulnerable
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Sector
Human
Health
Potential
Impact
Adaptation
Options
• increased
spread of
vector-borne
diseases
• quarantine,
eradication,
control
Adaptability Vulnerability*
Medium
to Low
Moderately
Vulnerable
* A Report of Working Group II of the IPCC.
AIACC Regional Study AS07
What decision will you influence with the result of your project?
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•
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Extending the length of policy planning to cope with the climate change
Broaden the aspect of the policy development
•
Various possibilities and frame of thought in policy development
process
Stakeholders involvement in the policy making process
Multi-level and multi sector awareness on the impact from climate change
Water Governance concept
AIACC Regional Study AS07
What are the key analyses that you will undertake to achieve
this and what methods will you use?
•
•
•
•
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Matching the timescale of the climate change study onto the policy planning
process
Using of various socio-economic scenarios from the study of the impact from
climate change into the adaptation planning activities
Engage all possible stakeholders into the policy development process
•
Participatory method for vulnerability assessment
•
Using the concept of the “Policy community”
Vulnerability mapping as well as other scientific tools/analytical tools and
methods
Resource management under climatic and hydrological variability
AIACC Regional Study AS07
What will you incorporate into your project from the workshop
that will add to the value of your project for the decision makers
that you intend to influence?
•
•
•
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Various tools and methods
•
Scenario generating tools
•
Water management software
•
GIS based vulnerability map
•
Adaptation method/measurement
•
Etc.
Frame of thought
•
Constructive way of building up socio-economic scenarios
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Development of the framework for the future study in V&A
Necessity of the stakeholders involvement in the policy making process –
stakeholder analysis and “Policy Community”
Linking the scientific finding to the policy making
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Incorporate into framework
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Climate Modeling Technique
Climate scenarios
Precipitation
Hydrology Modeling Technique
Land use/cover scenarios
Runoff profiles
Runoff profiles
Runoff profiles
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Water profile maps
GIS tools
Remote sensing tools
Vulnerability potential maps
Hot spot/Hot issues selection
Possible vulnerable areas:
• Flood in the lower Mekong basin
• Impact on the rain fed agriculture
• Impact on the wetland – human livelihood/biodiversity
• Impact on water utilization
• Possible outbreak of certain decease
• Etc.
Policy maker &
stakeholders
engagement
- Stakeholders analysis
- Build awareness of
impact from CC
- Capacity building
- Vulnerability map
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Risk analysis: sample case of flood – GIS tools, Scenario
generator tools, Stakeholders analysis, Participatory method Stakeholders participation, etc.
Agriculture
2020
2040
2060
Demographic
Infrastructure
Etc.
Different scenarios at different time
Overlay on Flood Risk Map/Inundation map
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Coping range/
Adaptive capacity assessment
• Historical data
analysis
• Participatory method
Vulnerability Assessment
• Participatory method
• Multi-criteria analysis
Vulnerability Maps
GIS tools
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Adaptation Plan Development
Participatory method
“Policy Community”
Adaptation Options
Long term policy
• Multi-criteria analysis
• Cost-benefit analysis
• Etc.
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Expected Products and Outputs (preliminary plan):
1.
14-km resolution monthly climate scenario (e.g., temperature, barometric
pressure, rainfall) for the Mekong River Basin;
2.
2. 1-km resolution monthly runoff, routed water discharge, water level and
soil moisture for the Mekong Basin under different climate and land cover
scenarios;
3.
Hydrological simulation tool to enhance local capacity to develop local
adaptation strategies and policies;
4.
Regional maps of vulnerabilities of different water related aspects to climate
and land cover changes;
AIACC Regional Study AS07
Expected Products and Outputs (preliminary plan):
5. Adaptation strategies and options for some communities and economic
sectors will be affected by global climate change in Mekong River Basin;
6. Generalized adaptation strategies and options for countries in the Mekong
River Basin to cope with Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological
Events due to Climate Change
Discussion Session
Thank You