Transcript PPT 2.1 MB - START - SysTem for Analysis Research and Training

Project : Regional and Environmental Agenda for
Governability and Sustainable Development
Adaptation to Climate Change: The
Argentine experience
Vicente Barros UBA (AIACC LA 26),
Hernan Carlino (Secretary of Environment
and Sustainable Development)
and Daniel Perczyk (Di Tella Institute)
Precipitation change
Annual precipitation trend1960-2000
mm- OC-SE
/ year(Suma Pesados)
Tendencia ANUAL
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-70
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
This is an important change in climate
conditions that already occurred
It could provide some experience
To see
• Adaptation or not
• Where and in which sectors?
• How successful was ?
FIRST
CASE
Isohyets in
mm
black :
1950-1969
red:
1980-1999
Adaptation to new conditions
AGRICULTURE
Successful
INFRASTRUCTURE
Still to come
• Wetter conditions in the central part of Argentina,
together with a rapid adoption of new technologies
allowed the expansion to the west of the agriculture
frontier
• This adaptation was autonomous, done by the private
sector, and stated even before the advice of the
agriculture experts
• The features of this adaptation, autonomy and speed,
were favored by the short cycle of the agriculture
activity, mainly cereals and other grains
Autonomous adaptation
- Resulted from massive individual options
- It came after the change
It could lead to wrong decisions (In the
long term) if the change ends being
transitory
In this case: deforestation of the Monte
Activities with long-term
implications
• Require planning
Example: Infrastructure
It should be designed for the future
In this case:
The adaptation was delayed:
problems in roads, bridges, etc.
Best example is the Picasa Lagoon:
railroad and a main road was cut for many
years
Lack of awareness in the technical spheres,
and even in the scientific community
A different reaction:
The largest discharges in the Paraná
(Jaime & Menéndez, INA)
Ciclo Seco
Ciclo Húmedo
Jun-92
Mar-66
15000
3
Caudal (m /s)
20000
May-98
Ciclo Medio
Jul-83
25000
Mar-95
Mar-97
Ene-98
Feb-90
Mar-77
Abr-65
Mar-59
Abr-51
Abr-46
Nov-35
5000
May-32 Abr-31
Abr-61
10000
0
Ene-31 Ene-36 Ene-41 Ene-46 Ene-51 Ene-56 Ene-61 Ene-66 Ene-71 Ene-76 Ene-81 Ene-86 Ene-91 Ene-96 Ene-01
Fecha
El Niño 1997-98
flood
(UBA Project on
floods)
A public adaptation policy was implemented
after the great floods of the great tributaries
of the Plata River during 1982/83 and 1992
Structural measures (defenses), and an Alert
System was organized and improved since
then. As a result of this adaptation policy,
damages of the 1997/1998 flood were
considerable lower ( 700 M U$D) than in
1982/83 event (1300 U$D)
What was different in this
case?
• There were :
Public
Technical
International
and Political
AWARENESS about
El Niño
Other case with
No important or adequate
responses
two days (16 stations of the Center and East of Argentina)
Precipitation over 150 mm: rate between the annual frequency of
the 1983/2002 and the 1959/1978 periods
• There were not enough AWARENESS
• In the Public
• Not even between hydrologists and
climatologists
About the unnamed cause of this problem
Main Conclusion:
Awareness of climate changes seem
have been determinant for public
and private responses
It may be other conditionings:
social, economic, structural or even cultural
barriers
Floods risk maps 2070
How results of
AIACC
Projects
will result in
adaptation to
Future
Changes?
Adaptation to Global change is an
important issue in the construction of the
Official Argentine environmental Agenda
In which awareness should be a key
element
Due to Climate change
Some Public Policies has to evolve from the
estimation of risk
to
the management of uncertainties.
This implies an economic cost
as planning has to assume
More costs
Or more risks
• Investment to reduce uncertainty is likely
more profitable than investment in
infrastructure alone
• This means investment in climate change
research is highly profitable
• Particularly, it is necessary to reduce
future uncertainty: better climate
scenarios