Transcript PowerPoint Template - Conseil de l`Europe

Perspectives of water stress
in Cyprus
Iacovos Iacovides
Water Resources Specialist
European Forum Cyprus
"Cyprus without water? One island, one problem and some related challenges"
Barcelona - Nov. 13-16, 2008
Council of Europe
Conseil de l'Europe
European Union
Union européenne
Contents
Water Resources
Water Demands
Significant water management issues
Desertification
Drought
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THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES
ISLAND-WIDE (1951-1981)
Northern Part 30%
Surface
water
54%
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Groundwater
46%
3
THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES
AFTER 1970 (G.C. Southern part only (1970-2000))
AREA OF G.C. CYPRUS = 6153 km2
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL = 465 mm
TOTAL ANNUAL WATER SUPPLY = 2860 Mm3
83% EVAPOTRANSPIRATION = 2370 Mm3
BALANCE “USEABLE” = 490
ANNUAL WATER SUPPLY 2860
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
(83%) 2370
BALANCE “USEABLE” 490
River diversions = 25
Use from dams
= 125
Aquifer recharge* = 43
Losses to sea
= 102
295
SURFACE WATER 295
DIVERSIONS
25
GROUNDWATER 195 + 43
SURFACE WATER
295
PUMPING &
SPRINGS 124
GROUNDWATER
195
Pumping
=124
Springs
Losses to sea = 160
Excess pumping = - 46
*238
DAM
RELEASES 125
EXCESS
PUMPING -46
490
490
LOSSES
102
LOSSES
160
Estimated >10% reduction
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Troodos Mountains Rainfall
in 1917 - 1970 vs 1971 - 2000
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION RECORDS (1916-2000) SHOWS A
STEP CHANGE AROUND 1970. 100 mm lower than older period (or 15 to 25% )
Data used for the
design of dams
Recent observations
1970-2000
-100 mm (15-25% less)
YEAR OF
DROP
CHANGE
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Average annual rainfall (Southern-part)
NOTICE THE DROP OF RAINFALL AT VARIOUS PERIODS:
1901-1970
541 mm
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1971-2005
470 mm
1987-2008
453 mm
6
Relation between annual rainfall and inflow
for Kouris dam
a n nua l inf lo w i n m c m
Surface runoff reduction has been 20 to 60%
80
70
60
K o u r is D a m : A n n u a l I n f l o w
vs.
A n n ua l R ain fall
1 9 7 0 /7 1 - 1 9 9 9 /2 0 0 0 a n n u a l o b s e r v a t io n s
50
E s t i m a t e d 1 9 1 6 /1 7 - 1 9 6 9 /7 0 m e a n
40
R e g r e s io n c u r v e
F lo w
FLOW
- 34%
- 34 %
30
E s t i m a t e d 1 9 7 0 /7 1 - 1 9 9 9 /2 0 0 0
20
10
R a in
RAIN-13%
- 13 %
a n n u a l r a in f a l l in m m
0
0
100
2 00
300
4 00
50 0
600
70 0
O b s e r v e d 1 9 7 0 /7 1 - 1 9 9 9 /2 0 0 0 m e a n r a in f a ll
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800
90 0
100 0
11 00
O b s e r v e d 1 9 1 6 /1 7 - 1 9 6 9 / 7 0 m e a n
7
Inflow of water into dams (1987-2008)
The decrease of inflow to dams varies between 24% and 58%. The island has roughly
40% less water than had been assumed based on pre-1970 records
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Water storage in Dams (1988 – 2008)
Present storage is 8.8 MCM or 3.2% of the 273.6 MCM Capacity
Lowest
ever
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The Morphou coastal aquifer
(after M. Ergil: Eastern Mediterranean University)
 meets the needs of the North (275 km2 45-100 m thick).
Aquifer annual safe yield in northern Cyprus is 74 MCM. But 29 MCM are
over-extracted (UNDP 1970, DSI 2002).
Surface water (13MCM) and dams (7) make the total potential to 94 MCM
Thus the water deficit of North Cyprus is about 12.5 million m3 (106.6 – 94.1)
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Water transport from Turkey
(after G. Elgiran, M. Ergil, European Univ. Lefke)
Water transported in large water bags (10000 to
30000 m3) towed by ship from Anamur Turkey to
the coast of Morphou in the period of 1998-2002
amounted to 4.1 MCM.
TCM = Thousands m3
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Use of water resources in northern part of
Cyprus (after World Bank)
Some 76% are used for irrigation and 2% for livestock
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Options for solution of water problem in
northern Cyprus
 Conversion of traditional irrigation methods to modern
irrigation on 1400 ha of land in Morphou
 Rehabilitation and use of treated wastewater
 Importation of 7 MCM from Turkey
 Transportation cost of water imported from Turkey to
Morphou by a tanker with a capacity of 40,000 m3 was
found to be $0.79 per m3 (incl. infrastructure and port
handling) (after H. Bicak & G. Jenkins, 1999).
 Thus importation is competitive to desalination
 Leakage in the network (est. 30%) is the most important
variable affecting price of water.
 Water resource development needs to focus on increasing
the supply of potable water at the expense of irrigation.
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Kokkinochoria aquifer water levels and
sea intrusion (1994 -2000)
GAIDOURAS
GAIDOURAS
SINTA
SINTA
AMMOCHOSTOS

KOUKLIA
KONTEA
KOUKLIA



ACHERITOU
KONTEA
KALOPSIDA
AMMOCHOSTOS




ACHERITOU
KALOPSIDA

0




MAKRASYKA
0

LLii
nnee


Achna Dam




PERGAMOS









-40














 AGIA NAPA



5 00




kilometers
> - 40 m
I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd



0
2.5







SOTIRA






 Hydr. No. XFG_66



XYLOFAGOU



LIOPETRI

50 0

1,000















 Hydr.
No. LIO_469





 



PARALIMNI
Paralimni
Lake











5



ORMIDEIA






AVGOROU













FRENAROS


XYLOTYMVOU

 
-4 
0



300
0
30





DERYNEIA



0
00
1,
0
2.5
40
20

0


XYLOFAGOU







Achna Dam



3 00
50 0


 Hydr. No. XFG_66


LIOPETRI


0

40


 Hydr.
No. LIO_469





 
LLii
nnee


ACHNA

PERGAMOS

-2 0




0
10


0
-2 0
0


0
20




ORMIDEIA






PARALIMNI
Paralimni
Lake


SOTIRA






GGrr
eeee
nn


-20


-4
 
-2
0







-40

40

AVGOROU

-20
60








20
 



FRENAROS


XYLOTYMVOU

20
in
inee
nn LL
reee
G
Gre




60




DERYNEIA
80


ACHNA

MAKRASYKA







-4 0
GGrr
eeee
nn
in
inee
nn LL
reee
G
Gre









500




 AGIA NAPA





5
kilometers
500 mg/l
14
Akrotiri Aquifer: sea intrusion 2001
K
Kou
ouri
riss R
Riv
iver
er
PANO POLEMIDIA
MESA GEITONIA
KATO POLEMIDIA
iveerr
Riv
is R
ryllllis
G
Gaary
KANTOU
YPSONAS
ERIMI
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KOLOSSI
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220000
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250
250
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0000
4400
0000
2200
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TRACHONI
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1100 
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1155 0000 
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0000
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 Hydr. No. 775 
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0
000
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LEMESOS
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EPISKOPI
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ASOMATOS
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Hydrograph of borehole 775 (Elev. 15.63 m amsl) 1961-2001
Akrotiri
Akrotiri Salt
Salt Lake
Lake


0
2
kilometers
4


4
AKROTIRI
3
500 mg/l
WATER LEVEL (mamsl)
2
1
TREND
0
-1
-2
-3
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Nov-01
Nov-96
Nov-91
Nov-86
Nov-81
Nov-76
Nov-71
Nov-66
Nov-61
-4
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Water Demand in southern part of Cyprus
Some 69% goes to agriculture (182 MCM). Domestic accounts for 25% or
67.5 MCM (Only 5% goes to Tourism).
Distribution of Agricultural Water Demand
Distribution of Water Demand from various Sectors - Year
2000
Animal
Husbandry
4%
Agriculture
69%
Areas Outside the
Government
Water Schemes
41%
Domestic excl.
Tourism
20%
Tourism
5%
Environment
5%
Major Government
Water Schemes
55%
Industry
1%
Water Demand of Residents and Tourists - Year 2000
Tourist
Ba
ec
se
to
s
r/
Le
fk
os
ia
ill a
ge
s
V
ish
Pa
fo
s
Tu
rk
is
h
S
Al
l
La
rn
ac
a
Le
fk
os
ia
Le
m
es
os
RESIDENTIAL
Br
it
Am
m
oc
ho
st
os
*
TOURISM
Water Demand MCM
Resident
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
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Supply of water from GWWs (1991-2007)
Note the steady increase in domestic demand;
Irrigation demand steady but variable according to supply availability
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Domestic water supply sources (GWWs)
(1991-2007)
Desalination became a new source of supply after 1997 and 2001
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Irrigation water supply sources (GWWs)
1991-2007
Reuse of tertiary treated effluent for irrigation is the new added source; supply variable
according to water availability; Better management for reliable but lesser quantities/ year
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Significant Water Management Issues
 Over-exploitation of groundwaters
 Hydromorphological pressures and quantity – flow of
surface waters (degradation of natural characteristics)
 Pollution:
 Agricultural
 Urban
 Other sources (industry, mining, rainwater run-off)
 Conservation of protected areas and significant
hydrophilous ecosystems
 Other issues
 Administrative issues
 Water pricing (Financial + Resource + Environmental Cost)
 Pressures on coastal water bodies
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Significant Water Management Issues
(continued)
 Desalination (costs relying on imported fossil fuels (0.92







Euro/m3 for Dhekelia and 0.68 for Larnaka) – Intensive
use of energy: impact on the environment (indirect
greenhouse gas emissions (GHG))
Import of water from Greece or elsewhere (high cost
about 5 Euro/m3)
Water Demand Management
Reduction of agriculture for the benefit of domestic
supply
Control of leakages from distribution networks
Developing water awareness
Combating desertification
Water Scarcity and Drought
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Desertification is …
Soil losing its productive capacity
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Factors of Desertification
Natural factors
 climate
• temperature
• precipitation
 soil
• type
• erosion
 vegetation
• species
• Biomass
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Factors of Desertification
Human factors
Over mining
Population increasing
Overgrazing
Fires & Deforestation
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Desertification conditions in Cyprus
as per UNESCO/FAO classification
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Effect of Climate Change to Desertification
Under climate change desertification INCREASE by 23.5%
Sensitivity Class
Index Range
% of land
(under Present
conditions)
Critical
1.38 to >1.53
57.0
70.4
Sensitive
1.23 to 1.37
42.3
29.5
Potential
1.17 to 1.22
0.7
0.1
<1.17
0
0
Non-affected
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% of land
(under Climate
Change Scenario
– 85% ppt &
1.3°C)
26
Sensitive areas to DESERTIFICATION:
Present conditions
Fragile
42.3%
Critical
57%
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Sensitive areas to DESERTIFICATION:
Climate Change
Scenario: 15% less rainfall and temperature increase by 1.3°C
Fragile
29.5%
Critical
70.4%
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Drought is …
Lack of precipitation
and/or
A period of water shortage
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Drought is…
Drought is a normal, repetitive climatologic feature
There is 20% probability that
annual rainfall could be 390-470
mm (drier years) and/or <390
mm (driest years)
Water
Demand
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Water
Supply
30
Trends in recorded rainfall and runoff
 Rainfall:
 Statistical analysis over 1916/1917-1999/2000 shows that the
precipitation displays a step change around 1970.
 For 1916/1917 to 1969/70 no trend can be detected.
 For 1970/1971 to 1999/2000 a slight decreasing trend but not
significant is noted.
 For areas of elevation higher than 500 m, the mean annual
precipitation in the recent period is lower by 100 mm or more than the
mean of the older period (or 15% -25%)
There is no proof that this decrease is due to global climate
change, but this possibility is not necessarily excluded.
 Runoff:
 The lower rainfall has caused a significant reduction in the water
available on the island as compared to the pre-1970 records.
 Decreases in runoff for all the dams after 1970 with respect to the older
time series vary between 20 and 60 percent. (13% reduction in ppt
results to 34% reduction in runoff for Kouris)
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Trends in Demand
 Demand:
 Already the demand is much higher than the supply and is
rising. New sources of water are scarce or very expensive.
Water demand management through proper water pricing
and reduction of agriculture need to be seriously
considered if we are to maintain the acquired standard of
living and combat desertification.
Conditions are likely to become worse if the
scenarios for Climate Change materialize.
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32
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