Transcript COMESA Climate Initiative

Climate Change Mitigation: The need to
include Agriculture, Forestry and Other
Land Uses (AFOLU)
Scope
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Introduction
What science says about AFOLU
CDM a missed opportunity
The inequity under CDM
The economics of AFOLU
Barriers
Opportunities to overcome the barriers
Framework for African Biocarbon Facility
Conclusion and Key Messages
Introduction
• Africa will be hardest hit by climate with large effects on
agriculture.
• Poor farmers and other vulnerable groups will need help
adapting to climate change.
• Today agriculture contributes 14 percent of annual GHG
emissions and land use change, including forest loss
contributes another 19 percent.
• Agriculture, forestry and other land use have a huge
potential to cost effectively mitigate GHGs through changes
in agricultural technologies, avoided deforestation and
management practices.
• Need to tackle the drivers of deforestation that lie outside
the forestry sector.
What science says about AFOLU…
• GHG emissions from agriculture and other land use
changes are expected to increase in the future given
increasing demand for agricultural products and changing
food preferences.
• The potential for mitigation thro’ agriculture in Africa has
been estimated at 970mtCO2e per year by 2030 –
accounting for 17% of the global total with additional 14%
from forestry.
• Africa has significant potential in AFOLU to deliver on
carbon sequestration and co-benefits such as food security,
biodiversity conservation and poverty reduction.
CDM – A Missed Opportunity for Africa
Registered CDM projects by Region
Africa accounts for less than 3%
of total CDM projects
90% of those projects are in
South Africa
Africa
2.6
Latin America
and Caribbean
33.00
63.90
Asia and
the Pacific
5
Source: http://cdm.unfccc.int
The inequity under CDM
• CDM excludes in non-annex 1 countries the
following:
 Forest conservation
 Avoided deforestation
 Sustainable forest management
 Renewable biomass
 Agriculture and soil carbon
Yet, all the above and A/R are credited in annex 1
countries!
The Economics of AFOLU
• More than any other region Africa depends on agriculture
and other land uses for food and economic security.
• African terrestrial mitigation can be evenly split between
agriculture, avoided deforestation and reforestation
• Potential annual payments to Africa from terrestrial carbon:
 From REDD – 500,000,000 mt @ $X/mt
= $ X billion
 From A/R – 500,000,000 mt @ $X/mt
= $ X billion
 From agriculture – 500,000,000 @ $ X/mt = $ X billion
Total
$ 3X billion
This is about 2.5 times average annual aid to Africa.
Source: McKinsey Analysis
Barriers
• Exclusion of soil carbon sequestration and avoided
deforestation.
• Methodological issues – Monitoring, Reportable
and Verifiable (MRVs)
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Defining the baseline
Additionality
Leakages
Permanence
• Cost effectiveness
• High transaction costs
Opportunities to overcome the barriers…
• Simplify the rules of CDM.
• Broaden the CDM definition of afforestation and
reforestation to include agroforestry and forest
rehabilitation.
• Allow soil carbon sequestration and REDD plus
under CDM.
• Increase participation in voluntary markets.
• Establish an African Biocarbon Facility to harness
both public and private funds for AFOLU.
African BioCarbon Facility
Buyer
% of credits sold
under long term
forward contracts
ODA, Countries,
other Investors
$
Buyer
Credits
$
% of credits
sold after
generated
BioCarbon Fund
$
Intermediary
$
Activity
Activity
Activity
Activity
Feb, 2009
Buyer
Buyer
Buyer
Buyer
Carbon credits
$, tech
assistance
Intermediary
Carbon
Rights
$
Carbon
Rights
Activity
Activity
Activity
Activity
Climate Change Workshop
Nairobi, Kenya
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Conclusion and Key Messages
• Across Africa, the fate of the poor and vulnerable groups
are closely tied to agriculture as sources of food and
economic security.
• Africa must optimize the full climate change mitigation and
adaptation potential by ensuring that AFOLU and REDD are
included in the Post 2012 climate change regime.
• A programme of work for REDD/AFOLU readiness.
• Broaden and simply CDM to include REDD, A/R and
agriculture and other land uses.
• Pursue the establishment of an African BioCarbon Facility
to support climate change mitigation and adaptation in
Africa.
Thank you
Merci