Transcript LEAP WEAP Symposium Talk

Tools for Modeling the
Water-Energy-Land-Climate Nexus
• Jack Sieber and David Yates
WEAP Developer, SEI
www.weap21.org
• Charlie Heaps
LEAP Developer, SEI
www.energycommunity.org
• David Yates
Water and Energy Systems, NCAR
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Talk Outline
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What are LEAP and WEAP?
Brief overviews of LEAP and WEAP today
Vision for integrating LEAP and WEAP
Challenges in integrating LEAP and WEAP
Examples of issues that can be modeled
When will the new system be ready?
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• Water Evaluation And Planning
System.
• Integrated watershed hydrology
and water planning.
• www.weap21.org
• Long range Energy Alternatives
Planning System.
• Integrated Energy Planning and
GHG Mitigation Assessment.
• www.energycommunity.org
Both Tools:
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General purpose model building, data management and scenario analysis tools.
Environmental engineering perspective on long-term resource allocation problems.
Integrated analysis across demand and supply.
Transparent, flexible and user-friendly with low initial data requirements.
Common code and modeling language.
Similar user interfaces and terminologies.
Closely coordinated Application Programming Interfaces.
Widely used in Governments, Universities, Consulting Companies, Utilities and NGOs:
100s of users worldwide.
 Available at no charge to non-profit, academic and governmental institutions based in
developing countries.
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Structure & Calculations
MacroEconomics
Demographics
Demand
Analysis
Environmental Loadings
(Pollutant Emissions)
Transformation
Analysis
Stock
Changes
Resource
Analysis
Integrated Cost-Benefit Analysis
Statistical
Differences
Non-Energy Sector
Emissions Analysis
Environmental
Externalities
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Europe’s Share of the Climate Challenge
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A joint project of SEI and Friends of the Earth
International for COP 15.
A detailed sector-by-sector mitigation scenario for all
27 EU countries developed that achieves GHG
reductions of 40% in 2020 and close to 90% in 2050
vs. 1990 levels.
Requires radical improvements in energy efficiency,
accelerated retirement of fossil fuels and a dramatic
shift toward renewables.
Excludes nuclear power, carbon capture and storage
(CCS), biofuels, and offsetting.
Examines the role of sufficiency and greater equity
among EU nations in helping promote a transition to a
low GHG future.
Also examines Europe’s international obligations by
using SEI’s Greenhouse Development Rights
framework to assess fair contributions to a global
climate effort.
Report available at: www.ClimateShareEurope.org
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Massachusetts Global Warming
Solutions Act (GWSA)
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The GWSA requires
Massachusetts to achieve
GHG reductions of between
10% and 25% below 1990
levels by 2020 and 80% by
2050.
To help meet these goals the
State is using LEAP to develop
a new energy and climate
mitigation model that will
examine what policies can
best meet these targets.
The work is being conducted
by a team lead by The Eastern
Research Group (ERG) and
including staff from Synapse
Energy Economics, SEI, Abt
Associates and Cambridge
Systematics
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Energy Demand Analysis in LEAP
Households
(8 million)
Urban
(30%)
Electrified
(100%)
Lighting
(100%)
Existing (80%, 400 kWh/yr)
Efficient (20%, 300kWh/yr)
Refrigeration
(80%)
Rural
(70%)
Electrified
(20%)
Cooking
(100%)
Other
(50%)
Non-Electrified
(80%)
• Demands organized into a flexible hierarchical tree structure.
• Typically organized by sector, subsector, end-use and device.
• Icons indicate the types of data (e.g., categories,
technologies, fuels and environmental effects).
• Users can edit the tree on-screen using standard editing
functions (copy, paste, drag & drop)
• Structure can be detailed and end-use oriented, or aggregate
(e.g. sector by fuel).
• Supports multiple methods (useful & final energy analysis,
stock turnover modeling, etc.)
Transformation Analysis in LEAP
Auxiliary Fuel Use
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Energy conversion, transmission
and distribution, and resource
extraction.
Demand-driven engineering-based
simulation.
Basic hierarchy: modules (sectors),
each containing one or more
processes.
Each process has one or more
feedstock fuels and one or more
auxiliary fuels.
Calculates capacity expansion and
process dispatch, imports, exports
and primary resource
requirements, costs and
environmental loadings.
Primarily annual calculations plus
seasonal/time of dispatch for
electric systems.
Output
Fuel
Process
(efficiency)
Output
Fuel
Process
(efficiency)
Module
Dispatch
Output
Fuel
Process
(efficiency)
Output
Fuel
Process
(efficiency)
Output
Fuel
Process
(efficiency)
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Auxiliary Fuel Use
Co-Product
Fuel (e.g Heat)
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Water Evaluation And Planning System
• Integrated watershed hydrology and water planning
model
• GIS-based, graphical drag & drop interface
• Physical simulation of water demands and supplies
• Additional simulation modeling: user-created variables,
modeling equations and links to spreadsheets, scripts &
other models
• Scenario management capabilities
• Groundwater, water quality, reservoir, hydropower and
financial modules
Results Displayed on the Map
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Scenario Explorer
Examples of WEAP Analyses
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Sectoral demand analyses
Land use & climate change impacts on hydrology
Water conservation
Water rights and allocation priorities
Groundwater and streamflow simulations
Reservoir operations
Hydropower generation
Financial analysis
Pollution tracking
Ecosystem requirements
Linking WEAP to Other Software
• Customized/Programmed links
– Groundwater flow and particle tracking models
• MODFLOW, MODPATH
– Surface water quality model
• Qual2K
– Semi-automated calibration
• PEST
• User-defined links to other models
– California Department of Water Resources
• Delta salinity model
– East-Bay Municipal Utilities District
• Reservoir operations model
• Call WEAP using application programming interface (API)
– Scenario analysis
• CARS (RAND Corporation)
– Model calibration
• PEST
– Sensitivity analysis, complex model building
• Scripts: Visual Basic, Javascript, Python, Perl
WEAP Applications
• Water Systems Planning
– Small Reservoirs Project, Ghana/Brazil
– California Water Plan, California, USA
– Guadiana River, Spain
• Transboundary Water Policy
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Okavango River, Angola/Namibia/Botswana
Lower Rio Grande, USA/Mexico
Mekong River, Thailand/Cambodia/Vietnam/Laos
Jordan River, Syria/Israel/Jordan
• Climate Change Studies
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Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins, California, USA
Massachusetts Water Resources Authority, Massachusetts, USA
Yemen Second National Communication
Mali Second National Communication
• Ecological Flows
– Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection
– Town of Scituate, Massachusetts, USA
• Water Utility DSS Application
– Case studies in Portland, Oregon; Austin, Texas; and Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania.
Cross Currents:
Bringing Together Different Perspectives
Water
•Climate change is a key
driver of water systems.
•Current focus is water
sufficiency and climate
change adaptation.
•Energy dimension provides
new insights into mitigation
potential in the water sector.
Energy
• Energy systems drive
climate change
• Current focus is energy
sufficiency and climate
change mitigation.
• Water dimension provides
new insights into how
climate adaptation will
affect energy systems.
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Potential Applications
• Hydropower
• Cooling Water for
Thermal Energy Systems
• Desalination
• Water and Land-use for
Biofuels
• Energy for Pumping
• Integrating Mitigation
and Adaptation
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Integrating LEAP & WEAP
• Tightly coupled system where LEAP and WEAP run together
and are dynamically linked.
• Each tool requests data or results from the other.
• Calculations run iteratively within each year of each scenario
– seeks convergence on a consistent set of results.
• Requires common assumptions on:
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Scenarios
Seasonal/time of day time slices
Geographic boundaries
E.g., base year, end year, discount rates, economic, demographic and
climate assumptions
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Design Goals
• Create a system that is flexible enough to
model a wide variety of energy-water issues.
• Presents issues in a way that is clearly
understandable and meets the needs of both
energy and water planners.
• Keep the systems easy to use for our existing
target audience.
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Linking Water and Energy Issues
Groundwater depletion
Water quality
Unmet ecological flows
Costs
Insufficient water for hydro and
cooling, even with increased
groundwater pumping.
Still insufficient water--further
enhance supply with
desalination.
Limited hydropower & cooling
water, increased energy
requirements for pumping.
Increased energy requirements
for desalination.
Electricity demand
Energy efficiency
Water
Supply
Water
Demand
Energy
Demand
Energy
Supply
Water requirements for
hydropower & thermal cooling
Hydropower & fossil
generation
Wind & solar, less waterintensive cooling
Water conservation
Hydropower energy &
cooling water requirements
Reduced water demands
Fuel Use
GHGs
Local air pollution
Costs
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Status
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Thanks
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