Transcript Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP)

LEAP
Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System
Charlie Heaps
Stockholm Environment Institute-Boston/
Tellus Institute
www.seib.org/leap
[email protected]
April 2003
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Highlights
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Integrated energy-environment, scenario-based modeling system.
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User-friendly data entry, scenario management and reporting tools.
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Scope: demand, supply, resources, environmental loadings
(emissions), cost-benefit analysis, non-energy sector emissions.
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Methodology: Physical accounting of energy. Also spreadsheetlike expressions, for econometric and simulation modeling.
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Time-Frame: medium to long-term, annual time-step, unlimited
number of years.
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Data requirements: low initial data requirements. Many aspects
optional. Start-out simple and add detail later.
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Geographic Applicability: local, national, regional.
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What Can You Do With LEAP?
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Energy outlooks (forecasting)
Energy balances and environmental inventories.
Integrated resource planning.
Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis.
Strategic analyses of sustainable energy futures.
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Scope
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Energy Demand
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Energy Conversion (Transformation)
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Resource requirements, production, sufficiency, imports and exports.
Optional land-area based accounting for biomass and renewable resources.
Costs
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Simulation of any energy conversion and transportation sector (e.g., electric generation, transmission &
distribution, oil refining, charcoal making, coal mining, oil extraction, ethanol production, hydrogen
production, etc.)
Choice of simulations for dispatch of processes (e.g. simple shares or merit-order dispatch to a loadduration curve).
Exogenous and/or endogenous modeling of capacity expansion.
Energy Resources
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Choice of methodologies: from top-down econometric to bottom-up end-use analysis.
Flexible hierarchical data structures.
Basic methodology: energy = activity level x energy intensity.
Final or Useful energy intensities.
Special features for modeling transport sector energy and emissions.
Capital, fixed and variable O&M, fuel, environmental externalities.
Environment
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Emissions and direct impacts of energy system.
Database includes emission factors for 100s of technologies (including all IPCC factors)
Non-energy sector sources and sinks.
Selected Applications
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Selected Applications
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Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Studies: Argentina, Bolivia, Cambodia, Ecuador, El
Salvador, Lebanon, Mali, Mongolia, Korea, Senegal, Tanzania, Vietnam and many
others.
Energy and Carbon Scenarios: Chinese Energy Research Institute (ERI) and
U.S. National Labs.
Envisioning a Hydrogen Economy in 7 U.S. Cities: Tellus Institute/NREL.
U.S. Light Duty Vehicle Energy Use and Emissions: for U.S. transportation
NGOs.
Multi-stakeholder Greenhouse Gas Action Plan: Rhode Island State
Government, USA.
APERC Energy Outlook: Energy forecasts for each APEC economy.
East Asia Energy Futures Project: Study of energy security issues in East Asian
countries including the Koreas, China, Mongolia, Russia, Japan.
Rural Wood Energy Planning in South Asia: FAO-RWEDP.
Integrated Resource Planning: Malaysia, Indonesia, Ghana.
Integrated Transportation Studies: Texas (Tellus) and 7 Asian Cities (AIT).
Sulfur Abatement Scenarios for China: Chinese EPA/UNEP.
Global Energy Studies; Tellus Institute & Greenpeace.
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Demand Modeling Methodologies
1. Final Energy Analysis: e = a  i
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Where e=energy demand, a=activity level, i=final energy
intensity (energy consumed per unit of activity)
Example: energy demand in the cement industry can be
projected based on tons of cement produced and energy
used per ton. Each can change in the future.
2. Useful Energy Analysis: e = a  (u / n)
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Where u=useful energy intensity, n = efficiency
Example: energy demand in buildings will change in future
as more buildings are constructed [+a]; incomes increase
and so people heat and cool buildings more [+u]; or building
insulation improves [-u]; or as people switch from less
efficient oil boilers to electricity or natural gas [+n].
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A Simple Demand Data Structure
Sector
(Level 1)
Households
(2.25 million)
SubSector
(Level 2)
End-Use
(Level 3)
Device
(Level 4)
High Income
(23%)
Lighting
(100%)
Standard (80%, 400 kWh/yr)
Efficient (20%, 300kWh/yr)
Heating
(80%)
Middle Income
(50%)
Low Income
(27%)
Industry
(1.0)
Chemicals
(1.0 - GDP index)
Iron/Steel
(400,000 tonnes)
Agriculture
(1.0)
Wheat
(200,000 hectares)
Rice
Cotton
Cooking
(100%)
Space Cooling
(50%)
All
End-Uses
(1.0)
Electricity (100%, 1.23 Gwhr)
Natural Gas (100%, 42.3 MMCF)
Oil (100%, 18.5 Thousand TOE)
Machinery
(90%)
New Tractors (15%, 0.5 TOE)
Old Tractors (85%, 0.7 TOE)
Other Equipment (20%, 0.2 TOE)
Irrigation
(40%)
Diesel Pumps
Wind Pumps
Transformation Modules
Auxiliary Fuel Use
Output
Fuel
Process
(efficiency)
Output
Fuel
Process
(efficiency)
Module
Dispatch
Output
Fuel
Process
(efficiency)
Output
Fuel
Process
(efficiency)
Output
Fuel
Process
(efficiency)
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Feedstock Fuel
Auxiliary Fuel Use
Co-Product
Fuel (e.g Heat)
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Social Cost-Benefit
Analysis in LEAP
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Societal perspective of costs
and benefits (i.e. economic not
financial analysis).
Avoids double-counting by
drawing consistent boundary
around analysis (e.g. whole
system including.
Cost-benefit analysis calculates
the Net Present Value (NPV) of
the differences in costs between
two scenarios.
NPV sums all costs in all years
of the study discounted to a
common base year.
Optionally includes externality
costs.
Demand
(costs of saved energy,
device costs, other non-fuel
costs)
Transformation
(Capital and O&M costs)
Primary Resource Costs
or
Delivered Fuel Costs
Environmental
Externality Costs
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Simple Example of Cost-Benefit Analysis
Two scenarios for meeting future growth in electricity lighting demand:
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Base Case
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Demand: future demand met by cheap incandescent bulbs.
Transformation: growth in demand met by new fossil fired
generating capacity.
Alternative Case
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Demand: DSM programs increase the penetration of
efficient (but more expensive) fluorescent lighting.
Transformation: Slower growth in electricity consumption
and investments to reduce transmission & distribution losses
mean that less generating capacity is required.
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Simple Cost-Benefit Analysis (cont.)
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The Alternative Case…
…uses more expensive (but longer lived) lightbulbs.
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…requires extra capital and O&M investment in the electricity
transmission & distribution system.
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Result: net benefit
…requires less fossil fuel resources to be produced or imported.
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Result: net cost
..requires less generating plants to be constructed (less capital
and O&M costs).
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Result: depends on costs, lifetimes, & discount rate.
Result: net benefit
…produces less emissions (less fuel combustion).
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Result: net benefit (may not be valued)
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TED:
The Technology and Environmental Database
Fields
Information
Pages
Technologies
Technology
Data
Cost
Data
Environmental Notes
Reference
Impacts
and
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Demand
Conversion
Supply:
Extraction
Resource
Transmission &
Distribution
Database Contents
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Typical
Data Requirements
for
Typical
Data
Requirements
LEAP/Bottom-up Analyses
Macroeconomic Variables
Sectoral driving variables
More detailed driving variables
GDP/value added, population, household size
Production of energy intensive materials (tonnes or $ steel);
transport needs (pass-km, tonne-km); income distribution, etc.
Energy Demand Data
Sector and subsector totals
End-use and technology
characteristics by sector/subsector
Price and income response (optional)
Fuel use by sector/subsector
a) Usage breakdown by end-use/device: new vs. existing
buildings; vehicle stock by type, vintage; or simpler breakdowns;
b) Technology cost and performance
Price and income elasticities
Energy Supply Data
Characteristics of energy supply,
transport, and conversion facilities
Energy supply plans
Energy resources and prices
Capital and O&M costs, performance (efficiencies, capacity
factors, etc.)
New capacity on-line dates, costs, characteristics;
Reserves of fossil fuels; potential for renewable resources
Technology Options
Technology costs and performance
Penetration rates
Administrative and program costs
Emission Factors
Capital and O&M costs, foreign exchange, performance
(efficiency, unit usage, capacity factor, etc.)
Percent of new or existing stock replaced per year
Emissions per unit energy consumed, produced, or transported.
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..Compared to DOS Version of LEAP
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Windows-based tool.
Visual editing of data (tree and RES diagram).
Flexible data structures.
Wider choice of methodologies including useful
energy analysis and transport stock turnover.
Spreadsheet-like expressions allow simulation and
econometric modeling techniques to be used within
overall accounting framework.
User-friendly reporting capabilities.
Import/export to Excel/Word.
Internet enabled for updates and technical support.
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Forthcoming…
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New data being developed for TED.
Improvements to TED to allow for easier
updating of data.
Limited Optimization.
Software translations: French, Spanish,
Chinese.
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Minimum Hardware/Software
Requirements
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Windows 98 or later
400 Mhz Pentium PC
64 MB RAM
Internet Explorer 4.0 or later
Optional: Internet connection, Microsoft Office
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Status and Dissemination
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Available at no charge to non-profit, academic and
governmental institutions based in developing
countries.
Download from http://www.seib.org/leap or on
CD distributed at this meeting.
Technical support from [email protected]
User name and password required to fully enable
software. Available on completion of license
agreement.
Most users will need training: available through SEIBoston or regional partner organizations.
Check LEAP web site for news of training workshops.
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View Bar
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Analysis View: where you create data structures, enter data, and construct
models and scenarios.
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Results View: where you examine the outcomes of scenarios as charts and
tables.
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Diagram View: “Reference Energy System” diagram showing flows of energy
in the area.
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Energy Balance: standard table showing energy production/consumption in a
particular year.
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Summary View: cost-benefit comparisons of scenarios and other customized
tabular reports.
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Overviews: where you group together multiple “favorite” charts for presentation
purposes.
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TED: Technology and Environmental Database – technology characteristics,
costs, and environmental impacts of apx. 1000 energy technologies.
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Notes: where you document and reference your data and models.