Transcript Shapiro-Geoengineering_why_and_next_steps

GEOENGINEERING – WHY AND THE
NEXT STEPS
DENVER CLIMATE STUDY GROUP
NOVEMBER 10, 2009
SOL SHAPIRO
[email protected] 303 693-3591
WHY? – AND THE NEXT STEPS
• THE PLANET IS WARMING THREATENING
INCREASED CLIMATE CATASTROPHES IN AN
UNCERTAIN TIME FRAME
• REDUCING CO2 EMISSIONS AS A SOLUTION ISN’T
HAPPENING (IF CAUSED BY FOSSIL FUEL)
– THIS PLACES MORAL RESPONSIBILITY ON US IF WE HAVE
ANOTHER SOLUTION AND DO NOT ACT
• WE NEED A “PLAN B” (WHATEVER THE CAUSE)
– TO UNDERSTAND WHAT IT IS POSSIBLE TO DO WITH
GEOENGINEERING – BENEFITS AND RISKS
– AND TO BE READY TO DEPLOY UNDER INTERNATIONAL
TREATY CONTROL
GEOENGINEERING – DEFINITION AND HISTORY
•
•
•
GEOENGINEERING IS THE INTENTIONAL LARGE-SCALE
MANIPULATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT, THAT IS INTENDED TO
REDUCE UNDESIRED CLIMATE CHANGE
HISTORICALLY AN EARLY DISCUSSION OF ANTHROPOGENIC
WARMING WAS IN 1905: ARRHENIUS SPECULATED ABOUT A
VIRTUOUS CIRCLE IN WHICH CO2 EMISSIONS FROM A GROWING
FOSSIL FUELED CIVILIZATION WOULD WARM THE CLIMATE
SOME OF MY “EARLY” KEY REFERENCES FOR GEOENGINEERING
– A HOOVER INSTITUTE PAPER BY EDWARD TELLER IN 1998
– AN EXCELLENT STANFORD LAW REVIEW PAPER IN 1998 BY JAY
MICHAELSON
– A NEW YOUR TIMES ARTICLE BY WILLIAM BROAD IN 2006
– PAPER IN CLIMATE CHANGE JOURNAL OF 2006 BY NOBEL
LAUREATE PAUL CRUTZEN WITH ENDORSEMENT FOR STUDY
BY RALPH CICERONE, PRESIDENT OF NATIONAL ACADEMY OF
SCIENCES
GEOENGINEERING OPTIONS: SOLAR RADIATION
MANAGEMENT AND CARBON REMOVAL
SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT REFLECTS ABOUT 1 ½ TO 2%
OF SOLAR RADIATION TO OFFSET ABOUT DOUBLE CO2 –
POSSIBLE APPROACHES ARE:
– SULFITES IN THE STRATOSPHERE – ABOUT 5% OF CURRENT
WORLD SULFITE ANNUAL EMISSIONS
– CLOUD SEEDING OVER OCEANS
– SURFACE ALBEDO ENHANCEMENT – ABOUT 4 MILLION
SQUARE MILES FROM “BLACK” TO “WHITE”
CARBON REMOVAL USES SUCH PROCESSES AS:
- BIOCHAR
- AIR CAPTURE
- OCEAN FERTILIZATION
RECENT RELEVANT CALLS FOR STUDY
• AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY POLICY STATEMENT
TO GEOENGINEER CLIMATE OF JULY 2009
– CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS THAT GEOENGINEERING IS A “LAST
RESORT”
– DEFINES 3 APPROACHES – REDUCING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 LEVELS,
REFLECTING SUNLIGHT AND OTHERS – SUCH AS TRANSPORT CO2
TO OCEAN DEPTHS
• “Therefore, the American Meteorological Society recommends:
• Enhanced research on the scientific and technological potential
for geoengineering the climate system, including research on
intended and unintended environmental responses.
• Coordinated study of historical, ethical, legal, and social
implications of geoengineering that integrates international,
interdisciplinary, and intergenerational issues and perspectives
and includes lessons from past efforts to modify weather and
climate.
• Development and analysis of policy options to promote
transparency and international cooperation in exploring
geoengineering options along with restrictions on reckless efforts
to manipulate the climate system.”
THE ROYAL SOCIETY – GEOENGINEERING THE
CLIMATE; SCIENCE, GOVERNANCE AND
UNCERTAINTY – SEPTEMBER 2009
“KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
PARTIES TO THE UNFCCC SHOULD MAKE INCREASED EFFORTS
TOWARDS MITIGATING AND ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
AND IN PARTICULAR TO AGREEING TO GLOBAL EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS OF AT LEAST 50% OF 1990 LEVELS BY 2050
AND MORE THEREAFTER
NOTHING NOW KNOWN ABOUT GEOENGINEERING OPTIONS GIVES
ANY REASON TO DIMINISH THESE EFFORTS
• FURTHER RESEARCH AND DEVLOPMENT OF
GEOENGINEERING OPTIONS SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN TO
INVESTIGATE WHETHER LOW RISK METHODS CAN BE MADE
AVAILABLE
- IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY TO REDUCE THE RATE OF
WARMING THIS CENTURY
THIS SHOULD INCLUDE APPROPRIATE OBSERVATIONS, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE MODELS, AND CAREFULLY
PLANNED AND EXECUTED EXPERIMENTS”
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
AMERICA’S CLIMATE CHOICES PROGRAM
HEAR INPUTS ON GEOENGINEERING FROM SUMMIT
MEETING OF MARCH 30/31:
http://americasclimatechoices.org/summit_podcasts.shtml
- SESSION
9: 53:00, SESSION 5 34:30-38:00, 13:20, 1:09:00,
SESSION 9 12:00
PAPERS FROM GEOENGINEERING WORKSHOP OF
JUNE 2009
- SOCOLOW – A SUMMARY OF WHERE I THINK THE ACC REPORT TO
BE PUBLISHED IN EARLY 2010 WILL GO
- OTHER PAPERS ARE AVAILABLE INCLUDING SOME MINIMAL
STUDIES
HOUSE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
COMMITTEE HEARING ON GEOENGINEERING
• NOVEMBER 5 WITNESSES INCLUDED CHAIR OF
THE BRITISH ROYAL SOCIETY STUDY AND
NATIONAL ACADEMY PARTICIPANTS IN
GEOENGINEERING WORKSHOP
• GEOENGINEERING VIEWED AS “PLAN B”
• RESEARCH FUNDING NEEDED
• HOUSE WORKING WITH HOUSE OF COMMONS
• MORE HEARINGS ARE PLANNED
• http://science.house.gov/Publications/hearings_markups_detail
s.aspx?NewsID=2668 FOR ARCHIVED VIDEO, ETC.
IPCC AND ENVIRONMENTAL COMMUNITY
VIEW OF GEOENGINEERING
TREATED LIKE THE “CRAZY AUNT IN THE ATTIC ABOUT WHOM WE
DON’T TALK” BY THE ENVIRONMENTAL COMMUNITY
FROM EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF IPCC MITIGATION REPORT OF 2007
– ON PAGE 15:
Geo-engineering options, such as ocean fertilization to
remove CO2 directly from the atmosphere, or blocking
sunlight by bringing material into the upper atmosphere,
remain largely speculative and unproven, and
with the risk of unknown side-effects. Reliable cost
estimates for these options have not been published.
FROM AN INSIGHT ARTICLE BY STEVE SCHNEIDER OF THE IPCC
AND STANFORD UNIVERSITY
As a member of that panel, I can report that the very idea of
including a chapter on geoengineering led to serious
internal and external debates. Many participants (including
myself) were worried that even the thought that we could
offset some aspects of inadvertent climate modification by
deliberate modification schemes could be used as an
excuse to continue polluting.
GEOENGINEERING CAN PLAY A ROLE IN US ENERGY
SECURITY
THE TUNNEL VISION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL COMMUNITY THAT
THE ONLY SOLUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IS REDUCTION OF
CO2 EMISSIONS
– IS TODAY BLOCKING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF LIQUID FUEL
FROM COAL – THE 2005 ENERGY BILL REQUIRES THAT “WELL TO
WHEEL” OF CTL IS 20% LESS THAN CRUDE
– EFFORTS IN CONGRESS TO UNBLOCK THIS LAW HAVE BEEN
STYMIED
– IN THE MEANTIME CHINA IS BRINGING CTL PLANTS ONLINE
– A RECOGNITION THAT WE CAN USE GEOENGINEERING COULD HELP
OUR LIQUID FUEL ENERGY SECURITY USING CTL AS A BRIDGE –
ONE MILLION BBL/DAY OF CTL WOULD INCREASE THE WORLD’S
CO2 EMISSIONS BY ABOUT 0.4% WITHOUT CO2 SEQUESTRATION!
SEE PRESENTATION ON UNITED STATES FUEL CONSUMPTION
MODELING
SEE PRESENTATION A COHERENT ENERGY POLICY FOR THE
UNITED STATES