Transcript ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT
CLIMATE CHANGE
By David Terry, author, the BEACONS on-line Guides to Climate Change. Free at
http://beaconsdec.org.uk/resources/study-guides/
Big ball of iron with some rock on the outside and a very very thin coating
of moisture and oxygen and dangerous creatures
- description of our planet in Wikipedia
Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier
1768 – 1830
Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 650,000 years ago to near present, using ice core proxy data and direct
measurements.
Global Climate Change -- Earth Science Communications Team at
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology
(data from NOAA) - http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/…
This plots atmospheric CO2 concentration synthesizing ice core proxy
data 650,000 years in the past capped by modern direct
measurements.
Global mean land-ocean temperature change from 1880 to 2013, relative to the 1951–1980 mean. The black line is the
annual mean and the red line is the 5-year running mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. Source: NASA GISS.
Global land temperatures have increased by 1.5 degrees C over the past 250 years
Berkeley Earth has just released analysis of land-surface temperature records going
back 250 years, about 100 years further than previous studies. The analysis shows that
the rise in average world land temperature is approximately 1.5 degrees C in the past
250 years, and about 0.9 degrees in the past 50 years. http://berkeleyearth.org//
CO2 levels, as
measured at the Mauna
Loa observatory
fluctuate according to
the month of the year
but are increasing at a
current rate of about
2.4ppm a year. This
rate appears to be
gradually increasing.
(http://co2now.org/Curr
ent-CO2/CO2Now/global-co2board.html )
Since 1993,
measurements from the
TOPEX and Jason series of
satellite radar altimeters
have allowed estimates of
global mean sea level.
These measurements are
continuously monitored
against a network of tide
gauges. When seasonal
and other variations are
subtracted, they allow
estimation of the global
mean sea level rate. As
new data, models, and
corrections become
available, we
continuously revise these
estimates (about every
two months) to improve
their quality.
SEA LEVELS
2014_rel5: Global Mean Sea Level Time Series (seasonal
signals removed)
Edited: 2014-11-04
WHAT DO WE KNOW?
How certain are we of each of the following?
1.
CO2 is a greenhouse gas. The amount in the atmosphere has increased
steadily from about 280ppm in pre-industrial times to about 400ppm today
2.
CO2 emitted by burning fossil fuels remains in the atmosphere for at least
100 years
Other GHGs, notably water vapour and methane, have a stronger effects
but remain for much shorter periods
3.
4.
Global temperatures have risen by about 0.80C in the last 100 years but
since 1998 have risen only slightly
5.
Sea levels have been rising for at least the last 150 years at a fairly steady
3.2 mm a year
6.
The rise in temperatures and sea levels is largely a result of burning fossil
fuels
7.
If atmospheric CO2 reaches 450ppm global temperatures are likely to
exceed 20C above those of 1900, and this will probably cause catastrophic
climate change
8.
The amount of CO2 emitted by each country
WHAT SHOULD WE DO?
1. NOTHING – WAIT AND SEE
1. USE ENERGY MORE EFFICIENTLY
2. REDUCE CO2 EMISSIONS
3. REDUCE THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS OR CO2 EMISSIONS
FROM THEIR USE
4. PREPARE FOR A HOTTER PLANET
5. GEOENGINEERING
NOTHING – WAIT AND SEE
1.
The hiatus in global temperature rise since 1998 makes future rise
uncertain and we can afford to wait
2.
Furthermore, the increase in atmospheric CO2 is likely to be benign for
several decades by stimulating plant growth
3.
While action may be more expensive if delayed, future generations will
be richer than we are and better able to afford necessary action
4.
The longer we wait, the better the science and technology will be and
the more effective any actions will be
5.
Climate change is not the only potential threat to humanity. Before
making it a top priority, it might be sensible to prioritise other threats
such as a pandemic, an asteroid, a solar storm destroying the internet,
Yellowstone eruption etc
USE ENERGY MORE EFFICIENTLY
1.
Personal life styles
2.
Transport
3.
Industrial processes
4.
Agriculture
5.
Design of things
6.
Consumption
7.
Houses – heating and cooling
REDUCE CO2 EMISSIONS
AN INTERNATIONAL TREATY TO REDUCE CO2 EMISSIONS: WHAT’S THE
PROBLEM?
Poor nations
aspire to a similar
life style to the
rich. So they will
want to use
roughly the same
amounts of
energy. With an
increasing world
population, and
despite increases
in energy
efficiency, this
must mean at least
a doubling of
world energy
consumption
DRASTICALLY REDUCE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS
OR CO2 EMISSIONS FROM THEIR USE
1. Increase energy
efficiency
6. Carbon capture and
storage
2. Renewables. Wind,
wave, tidal, solar
7. Biomass
3. Hydroelectric
8. Nuclear fission
4. Geothermal
9. Nuclear fusion
5. Natural gas – fracking
PREPARE FOR A HOTTER PLANET
1.
Drought-resistant plants, including GM
2.
Computer-controlled irrigation
3.
Water management
4.
Desalination
5.
Migration of mosquitoes etc
6.
Move or protect low-lying habitation
7.
Cope with vast population migrations
GEOENGINEERING
1. Geoengineering to cool the planet
2. Geoengineering to remove CO2 and other
GHGs
WHAT IF THE PLANET BECOMES
UNINHABITABLE?
Suppose that, despite all efforts, runaway
and irreversible global warming occurs. The
polar ice sheets melt ever more rapidly, sea
levels rise by a metre or so a year
overwhelming sea walls and barriers, deserts
cover more and more of the land, mass
migrations and severe water shortages lead
to terrible conficts
THE FINAL OPTION
Letter in the
Financial
Times March
18th 2014