Transcript Climate change on federal lands: How does it affect all of us and

Climate change
on western
federal lands:
How does it
affect us and
what can we do
about it?
FLM Perspectives
WESTAR
Spring 2015 Meeting
San Francisco, CA
OBJECTIVES
• Share some basic science regarding climate
change
• Show how it is affecting federal lands and
how that affects public health and welfare
and state economies.
• Share what the FLM agencies and our
partners are doing to mitigate and adapt to
climate change and reduce operational
carbon footprints
• Find out how we can collaborate with
WESTAR states and EPA to reduce GHG
emissions, develop abundant clean energy
and jobs, improve energy efficiency and put
the brakes on climate change.
WHAT
CONNECTS
US?
• We share a responsibility to protect
air quality to protect human health
and welfare
• We use science to inform our
decision- and policy-making.
• We recognize that human
economies and environmental
health are linked.
• We care about the young people
we know and what their world will
be like.
Air pollution in New York City 1966-1970
1966 NYC
Lichen desert
2014
Central
Park
SCIENCE OF
CLIMATE
CHANGE:
INFORMATION
SOURCES
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change: http://www.ipcc.ch
National Climate Assessment:
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
Tipping Point
Changes in the West
African Monsoon
Changes in the Indian
Summer Monsoon
Melting of the Arctic Sea
Ice
Dieback of the Amazon
Rainforest
Dieback of the Boreal
Forests
Decline in the Atlantic
Thermohaline Circulation
~Yrs
to TP
CLIMATE TIPPING POINTS
1-10
1-10
10
50
50
100
Melting of the Greenland > 300
Ice Sheet
Melting of the Antarctica > 300
Ice Sheet
Interconnections between major
biogeochemical features of the planet can
cause feedbacks that amplify the effects of
small changes in temperature.
SCIENCE OF
CLIMATE CHANGE:
HOW FAST SHOULD
EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS
OCCUR?
Hansen et al. 2008. Target Atmospheric CO2. Open Atmospheric Sci. J. 2: 217-231.
MISSIONS
• To sustain the health, diversity, and
productivity of the Nation's forests and
grasslands to meet the needs of present
and future generations. 193 MA
• Working with others to conserve, protect,
and enhance fish, wildlife, plants and their
habitats for the continuing benefit of the
American people. 150 MA
• To preserve unimpaired the natural and
cultural resources and values of
the National Park System for the
enjoyment, education, and inspiration of
this and future generations. 84.4 MA
All Federal and Indian Lands
http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/fedlands.html
IMPACTS TO WESTERN FEDERAL LANDS
Climate change impacts observed on federal
lands and future vulnerabilities:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Shifting plant and animal species habitat
Increasing sea-level in coastal & tidal areas
Increasing glacial melt
Decreasing snowfall and snowpack
Advancing spring warmth and streamflow
Increasing conifer mortality
Increasing wildfire extent, frequency,
intensity
Gonzalez, P. (2011), Climate change impacts and carbon in U.S. national
parks, Park Science, 28: 2.
HOW DOES THE
CONDITION OF
FEDERAL
LANDS AFFECT
PUBLIC
HEALTH AND
WELFARE?
•
•
•
•
•
•
Air quality
Water quality and supply
Wood products
Grazing
Hunting and wildlife viewing
Tourism and recreation
WHAT ARE
FLMS DOING
TO ADDRESS
CLIMATE
CHANGE?
Building Blocks of Federal Agencies’ Climate
Response Programs
• Sustainable Operations
 Federal agency carbon footprints = ~1%
of US
 President Obama has set a goal for us to
reduce our footprints by 40% in the next
10 years. =1% of US carbon footprint.
• Mitigation. From air program perspective we
are working to mitigate GHG emissions through
the NEPA process, through prescribed fire and
by supporting actions at federal state and local
levels.
• Adaptation
• Education
• Sequestration
 US forests sequester about 16% of annual
carbon emissions
 USFS goal is to retain that level of
sequestration into the future
Barnosky et al. 2011. Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already
arrived? NATURE 471 :54
CALIFORNIA
A Northern Pintail.
NEVADA
Devils Hole is the only natural habitat of the Devil's Hole pupfish,
which thrives in the hot water and has been listed as endangered on
the Endangered Species List since 1967.
COLORADO
Western resorts are expected to
face a range of climate-related
challenges, such outbreaks of pests
like the mountain pine beetle,
drought, and wet avalanches and
heavy rains during the ski season.
Conservation of high altitude
wetlands and forested ecosystems
can provide direct and indirect
benefits to wildlife like the
threatened Canada lynx.
NEW MEXICO
6,000-watt hybrid solar cell and
wind energy system at San
Andres National Wildlife Refuge .
What did San Andres National Wildlife
Refuge in southern New Mexico -- winner of
a 2008 Department of the Interior
Environmental Achievement Award and a
Department of Energy award -- pay for
electricity in mid-February to mid-March this
year?
Nothing.
FIRE AND RESILIENT
ECOSYSTEMS
http://earthenginepartners.appspot.com/science-2013-global-forest
A LAST
STORY: WHAT
IS OUR
LEGACY?
We know how to solve air pollution
problems, we can solve them together.
So how can FLMs, WESTAR states, and EPA
best collaborate to reduce GHG emissions,
develop abundant clean energy and jobs,
improve energy efficiency and put the
brakes on climate change?
“The eyes of the future are looking back at us and they are praying for us
to see beyond our own time…” --Terry Tempest Williams
ADDITIONAL SLIDES:
GENERAL EFFECTS
OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
SCIENCE OF
CLIMATE
CHANGE:
KEELING
CURVE
Scripts Institute Keeling Curve http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/
Animated Keeling Curve http://www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/climate-basics/climate-primer
Animated Temperature: http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resource_center/28
SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE:
CLIMATE FORCING
Hansen et al. 2008. Target Atmospheric CO2. Open Atmospheric Sci. J. 2: 217-231.
SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE: HOW MUCH OF
REMAINING FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES CAN WE
AFFORD TO BURN?
Hansen et al. 2008. Target Atmospheric CO2. Open Atmospheric Sci. J. 2: 217-231.
SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE:
PROJECTED TIMING OF
CLIMATE DEPARTURE FROM
RECENT VARIABILITY
Source: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7470/full/nature12540.html
Barnosky et al.2011. Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived? RESEARCH
REVIEW 54 | NATURE | VOL 471 |
SCIENCE OF
CLIMATE CHANGE:
HOW FAST SHOULD
EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS
OCCUR?
AAAS Climate Change
Evidence and Causes
ADDITIONAL SLIDES:
WHAT ARE FEDERAL
LAND MANAGERS
DOING?
USFS
RESPONSE TO
CLIMATE
CHANGE
NFS Carbon
Assessments
The Strategic
Framework for
Responding to
Climate Change
Road Map
and
Scorecard
USDA Forest
Service Climate
Change
Adaptation Plan
National Climate
Assessment Forest
Sector Technical Report
NPS CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY
NPS Climate Change Response Strategy (2010)
• Describes goals and objectives under four
components:
• Science
• Adaptation
• Mitigation
• Communication
NPS Climate Change Action Plan 2012 – 2014
(2012)
• Describes high-priority actions the NPS is
currently or committed to undertaking
– Section I: Context for Action
– Section II: Identifying Near-Term
Priorities
– Section III: Preparing for New
Challenges and Opportunities
NPS CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY
NPS Climate Change Action Plan, Highlights of
2014 Accomplishments (Draft)
• Actions organized under eight areas:
1. Enhance workforce literacy
2. Engage youth and their families
3. Develop effective planning frameworks
and guidance
4. Provide climate change science to
parks
5. Implement NPS Green Parks Plan
6. Foster robust partnerships
7. Apply adaptation tools and options
8. Strengthen communication
• Actions include: videos, training, internships,
monitoring impacts and vulnerabilities in
parks, regional strategies, and guidance.
Alaska: Across the Wildest State, Climate Change Threatens Many Species &
Habitats
Arizona: As Vegetation Moves to Higher Elevations, What Happens to Pollinators?
California: Incorporating Climate Change into Planning California’s Bay-Delta
Future
Colorado: Partners Work to Offset Effects of Shrinking Snowpack
Hawaii: Developing Options for Coral Reef Management in a Changing Climate
Idaho: Streamflow Responses to Climate Change - Why Elevation & Geology
Matter
Montana: Helping Wildlife Make “Connections” on the Landscape
New Mexico: Getting Off the Electric Grid
Nevada: Climate Change May Impact Existing Refuge Water Concerns
Oregon: Preparing for Change on the North Pacific Coast
South Dakota: No Ducking Climate Change Impacts to Prairie Pothole Wetlands
Utah: Managing Water Resources for Fish, Wildlife and People
Washington: Tide Returns to Nisqually Estuary
Wyoming: ‘Perfect Storm’ Fuels Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic
http://www.fws.gov/home/climatechange/stories505050.html
ALASKA
WYOMING
three-toed woodpecker
Triggered by a “perfect storm” of extended
droughts, warm winters, and old, dense
forests, mountain pine beetle populations
have exploded across a landscape of lodgepole
pine trees throughout Colorado and
southeastern Wyoming
mountain pine beetle
NORTH
DAKOTA
A banded white pelican chick at Chase Lake
National Wildlife Refuge faces many threats —
including storms, disease and predators —
before it is mature enough to fledge. Pelicans’
earlier initiation of nesting is putting the chicks
at greater risk.