Transcript P. Desanker - PRIVA - A Tool for Adaptation

PRIVA - A Tool for Adaptation
Planning especially in NAPA
Development
Paul V. Desanker
Penn State University/Miombo Network
(UNFCCC LDC Expert Group; AIACC Project AF38)
[email protected];
www.africaclimatechange.org
www.miombo.org
www.NapaPrimer.org
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Inspired by the need for a paradigm shift from
impact assessments & top down approaches
 Consider
a (real) maize study
…GCMs …maize models …lots of
simulations and output data …2
years later …
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Maize study …

Conclude that maize production and
so food security is sensitive to
climate variability especially erratic
rains – some of the GCMs
scenarios projected wetting, others
drier conditions ...
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Bear in mind …
 GCM
scenarios are not predictions!
They are projections of what might
happen if the drivers of that
scenario were in effect ….
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Impacts to adaptation …

That study then recommended adaptation
options as follows:



Need to adopt drought resistant cultivars
Manage water better to withstand erratic rains
Switch to crops other than maize
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Now the question is …

Are these conclusions and adaptation
options informed by the 2-year modeling
study of potential impacts of different
GCM projections?
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Need for a paradigm shift …

Clearly we need to look at adaptation differently
….

We still need the impact assessment studies,
no doubt, but not to directly inform adaptation
(esp those based on multiple scenarios)
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Need for a paradigm shift …

One of the missing pieces is of course how to
put the results of the scenario assessments in
the context of what might actually happen

The various uncertainties in the climate system
and the assessments themselves
notwithstanding
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NAPA under the UNFCCC

National Adaptation Programme of Action for Least
Developed Countries (LDCs)

Designed to implement Article 4.9 of the FCCC that relates to
LDCs

LDC Fund created under the convention with voluntary
contributions from Annex II countries

LDCs negotiated this programme and designed the methods
for doing NAPAs, etc, with active participation of many
experts and agencies

Implemented under the GEF, and has gone from idea in 2000
to full programme by COP-7 in Nov 2002
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Enter the NAPA Idea and PRIVA

In summary, we believe you can identify (some)
major needs for adaptation by an informed
interaction with stakeholders in relation to their
experience and livelihoods

For a given region, we can identify major climate
hazards and threats (qualitatively if data insufficient)

Then for major sectors or systems important for
livelihoods (or other metric), we can characterize
impact potential
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Enter the NAPA Idea and PRIVA

In order to fully describe vulnerability, need
to understand the community or system that
is exposed – in terms of adaptive capacity

Given the risk of climate hazards, impact
potential and adaptive capacity, we can
define Vulnerability. And then,

Adaptation is the process of decreasing
vulnerability
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PRIVA ...

Participatory … Rapid Integrated
Assessment … of Vulnerability … and
Adaptation (PRIVA)

Mix of process, tools (such as GIS for
data processing and display, and models)
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Conceptual description of
PRIVA

Semi-formal description of vulnerability and adaptation

Integrates hazard and risk assessment, functional
relationship of systems to climate, thresholds, adaptive
capacity etc

Analytical solution likely, but can solve/resolve semiquantitatively (using participatory approach)
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PRIVA for NAPA (from NAPA Primer, Desanker 2004: The NAPA Primer)
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Framing Adaptation in PRIVA
in terms of Eqn 2

Define adaptation to minimize (to zero even) through any of the
following:
 By reducing the risk associated with hazards by manipulating
components of risk
 (Removing/reducing hazard through mitigation is outside domain of
analysis for the LDCs)
 Reduce impact potential through manipulation of the system
dependence on climate (cropping manipulations for instance)
 By increasing coping ability (e.g addressing key determinants such as
poverty, access to financial resources, etc)

Carry out above in a multi-dimensional analysis or less effectively by
addressing only one or some of the components
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Applying PRIVA to NAPA

Current knowledge and experiences with climate
(variability, extremes etc) sufficient to go through steps
using participatory approaches for all LDCs

No expectation that NAPA activities will identify or
address all adaptation needs especially long-term needs

NAPA to address the transition period between recent
past/present climate and future changed climate
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Climate Change Extremes and Coping Range
Current Climate
Changed Climate?
Transition period –
NAPA domain
Climatic
Attribute
(X)
Time (years)
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Current Coping Range
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Cascading or nested spatial
scales

Apply PRIVA in successive spatial scales until issue is manageable –
in relation to stakeholders, or in terms of funding limitations

For example, apply at national level to identify/select most vulnerable
regions and systems or sectors or communities (“hotspots”)

Can then re-apply PRIVA for the selected regions

Iterate until can identify clear actions (adaptation activities) that are
easily implementable and address specific communities/locations
(action-orientedness, etc)
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Cascading or nested spatial
scales

In fact, PRIVA approach can be applied at any
scale, from regional, national, sub-regional to
community level depending on the stakeholders
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Summary of PRIVA



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National level tool for vulnerability
assessment
Data include: maps, and spreadsheets with
data by various subdivisions including admin
districts, basins, etc
Thematic data such as population, land use,
land cover, transportation, etc
Models impact models as needed
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Summary of component tools
in PRIVA




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Data analysis (climate data, etc., Fortran
programs, statistical software – IDL/ENVI)
GIS for spatial data analysis and display
(Arcview, AWhere)
Impact models – various, biome/crop
distribution models, crop models, etc)
Ranking: Multiple Criteria Analysis (e.g.
Definite)
Consensus Building approaches
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Comments

Most impact models such as in compendium,
are stand alone application suites – not trivial
to combine or modify

Most cannot modify/customize
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Next Steps

Development of “PRIVETTES” for specific
climatic hazards and sectors

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Coastal areas and erosion, flooding
Drought
Agricultural and Food Security
Ecosystem Goods and Services in shared river
basins
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Further information

Desanker, P. (2004). The NAPA Primer. LDC
Expert Group, UNFCCC, Bonn, Germany, 203p.

Information on NAPA: www.unfccc.int/ldc,
www.napaprimer.org and links therein
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The NAPA Primer will be launched at 1
pm, Thursday December 9th, 2004
Room: XXXX, XXX
Refreshments will be served
Desanker, P. 2004. The NAPA Primer. United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Least Developed Countries
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Expert Group (LEG), Bonn, Germany, 198p.
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