Transcript Are Extreme Weather (EW) events on the rise?

The Global Warming-Extreme
Weather link: Media Hype or
Climate Realty?
Madhav Khandekar
Expert Reviewer IPCC 2007
Climate Change
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Are EW events on the rise?

A short answer: NO!

A Long answer: NO! NO! NO!


EW events have always occurred in the
earth’s climate!
Present concern re: EW/Global Warming
(GW) link is more media hype than reality!
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
IPCC vs NIPCC


IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change; A UN Body of scientists (mostly
working with various national
governments) established in 1988: IPCC
has issued climate change documents
since 1990.
NIPCC: Nongovernmental International
Panel on climate change (several dozen
scientists & specialists in various fields)
established in 2007: First comprehensive
report in 2009
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Mechanics of extreme weather
(EW)
IPCC View
Warmer climate holds more
moisture: more rains & floods
in some areas; droughts/heat
waves in other areas.
NIPPC View
Extreme weather is an integral
part of earth’s climate: have
occurred throughout recorded
history of climate.


More intense Trop Cyclones
ENSO phases can and do cause
EW events world-wide
Increase in extreme rainfall
events
Decrease in cool days/night and
frost in Mid-latitudes
Intense interaction between
high-lat. cold air with low-lat.
warm air produces EW events
regionally/locally
EW are on the rise now due to
warming of climate.
Present ‘increase’ in EW is
perception than reality!
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
IPCC 2007 Table of Extreme Weather Events
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Media Hype about global warming &
Impacts
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Global Mean Temperature Trend
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
IPCC 2007
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
U.K Met office data
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Heat Waves: Highest worldwide
temperatures
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Heat Waves: North America &
Elsewhere

North America witnessed recurring heat waves in 1920s and
1930s! Highest max temperatures in the 1920s 1930s!

2012 US summer heat-wave was ‘mild” compared to those of
1930s!

Summer 2003 Western Europe heat-wave was extreme; Dry soil
moisture conditions were responsible ( NIPPC post 7 March 2012)

Moscow heat-wave summer 2010 was due to atmospheric
blocking (NIPPC post 13 July 2011)

Pre-Monsoon (April-May) heat waves over India are common &
exhibit inter-annual variability

Heat waves over Australia linked to ENSO phases

2013 July heat wave over China was due to drying of soil moisture
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Deadliest heat wave in Canada; 1100 people died July 1936
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Highest Recorded Temperatures





World’s highest: 57.8C (136F) Libya 13 Sept
1922
Canada’s highest:45C Saskatchewan Canadian
Prairies, July 1937: Toronto highest 41C July
1936
US highest: 56.7C (134F) California 10 July 1913
Highest on Indian subcontinent: ~128F NW India,
1930s
Highest in China: 43.4C Central China
1
September 2006
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Thunderstorms & Tornadoes

Highest thunderstorm/tornado activity in US during 1920s
thru 1940s

Deadliest tornado outbreak: 18 March 1925: 747 dead in 3
mid-western States

April 5 1936: 216 deaths in Mississippi

Largest 2-day outbreak; 3-4 April 1974, over 140
tornadoes

The Oklahoma tornado (May 22 2013) was due to a cold-air
outbreak, resulting in a sharp temperature change,
producing intense tornado with several deaths
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Improved monitoring technology may have led to higher tornado count in recent years
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Hurricanes, Typhoons & Tropical
Cyclones



Hurricanes in North Atlantic & Typhoons in
Western Pacific show inter-decadal variability,
with NO long-term trend!
Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones show inter-annual
variability; NO trend!
Elsewhere (Australia, South Indian Ocean) NO
long-term trend!
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation


July 7-9, 2014
Rapid warm-up in the
Atlantic in 1995 brought an
immediate doubling in
number hurricanes and
major hurricanes (back to
where we were in 1930s to
1960s)
It is the basis of forecasts
by Dr. Bill Gray (CSU) and
others of enhanced activity
for another decade or so
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Bay of Bengal
# of Tropical Cyclones June-September
20
Occurance
15
10
5
0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-5
Year
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Extreme Precipitation

Precipitation extremes have occurred irregularly in various
regions without being forced by AGW!

Extreme precipitation often linked to tropical
cyclones/hurricanes: Also in monsoonal climate

Highest 24-hr: 18Jan1966; 182cm (south Indian Ocean:
TC-Hyacinthe)



Highest one month: July 1861 930cm (Cherrapunji India)
Highest one year: 1860-61 2647cm (Cherrapunji India)
Recent studies on “human link to extreme rainfall” are
without any merit! (rainfall amounts only ~50-150mm
locally: UK, Europe, North America)
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Droughts-floods & ENSO





Warm events (El Nino) in the equatorial Pacific
brings summer rains over US/Canadian Prairies
Cold events ( La Nina) linked with drier summer
on the Prairies.
El Nino/La Nina linked to droughts/floods in
Indian summer monsoon
ENSO and PDO-Pacific Decadal Oscillation
produce dry/wet conditions over eastern
Australia, Indonesia, southeast China and eastern
Africa.
ENSO is the single largest cause of global
extreme precipitation events
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
PDO COLD MODE
PDO WARM MODE
Mostly El Ninos
Wolter
Mostly La Ninas
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
The 1997/98 El Nino structure at about Sep 1997
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Prairie drought-wet cycles
 1978-80
Wet Cycle
 1987-89 Drought Cycle
 1992-94 Wet
 2001-03 Drought
 2005-2010 Wet
Wet Cycle on the Canadian Prairies
Continues at present:
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
33
Meteorological Drought
Meteorological
drought conditions
for September
2001- August 2002
(a). Areas in red are
record dry
conditions. Contrast
with conditions
observed
September 2005 –
August 2006 (b).
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Major floods/droughts in Indian summer
monsoon (1813-2010)

FLOODS
1818 (1036 mm)

1861 (1051 mm)

1874 (1033 mm)








1878 (1039 mm)

1892 (1050 mm)

1894 (1032 mm)


1916 (1034 mm)







1917 (1079 mm)

1933 (1042 mm)

1942 (1037 mm)






1956 (1007 mm)

1961 (1088 mm)

1971 (1002 mm)


1988 (1047 mm)

Mean 1041mm
July 7-9, 2014


Heaviest flood


DROUGHTS
1823
1824
1832
1840
1844
1848
1851
1860
1864
1868
1877
1899
1918
1920
1941
1965
1972
1979
1982
1986
1987
2002
2009
(795
(770
(775
(774
(788
(688
(744
(733
(748
(777
(609
(695
(661
(786
(785
(741
(708
(723
(788
(780
(739
(715
(698
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
cm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
mm)
Mean 739 mm
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Worst drought
Severe Drought
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Floods in Pakistan and NW India
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Recent Cold Weather Extremes





Winter 2013/14 was one of the coldest, longest and snowiest over Canada
and most of Conterminous US!
Winter 2012/13: Extremely cold over most of Europe: March 2013 broke
several cold weather records! January 2013 was very cold over most of
North and central India!
Winter 2011/12: Coldest February 2012 in eastern Europe! Low
temperature -40C and below in some localized regions!
Winter 2009/10: Very cold over eastern & central Europe: several deaths
in eastern Europe & Germany: Heavy snow caused several transportation
disruptions in Central Europe: Siberia suffered its coldest winter ever!
Several hundred deaths in Northern India due to long exposure to cold
weather!
Winter 2007/08: snowiest winter in Northern Hemisphere since 1966: Sea
Ice between Greenland & eastern Canada was highest in 15 years. Heavy
snow in China! Buenos Aires (SA) recorded several cm of snow (July 2007)
after 85 years!

Winter 2005/06: Very Cold most of Europe!

Winter 2002/03: Severe cold in eastern Europe, 200 deaths in Poland:
Several hundred deaths in Bangladesh & Vietnam, January 2003!
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Notable EW events of 1945-1977
(when mean temperature declined)

1961 summer monsoon over India: Heaviest floods everywhere!
Also East Pakistan (Now Bangladesh) witnessed two powerful
cyclones in May! Over 20,000 deaths India & Pakistan!

Winter 1962-63: One of the Coldest over most of Europe! Rivers
in central Europe frozen for weeks!

August 1969: Hurricane Camille (category 4-5) struck US Gulf
Coast killing over 250 people!

November 1970: tropical cyclone hit Bangladesh killing over
250,000 people! Largest human fatalities in ONE SINGLE
WEATHER DISASTER

April 2-3 1974: largest (147) outbreak of tornadoes in US Midwest ever! Over 250 deaths; property damage over US$ 1 billion

December 1976-January 1977: Very cold over most of North
America! Southeast US witnessed long cold winter
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA
Summary & Conclusions


EW events are integral part of earth’s climate. Recent perceived
increase in EW events is due to media hype!
Heat waves, droughts, floods etc have occurred in the past,
without being triggered by Global Warming! NO increasing trend
in heat waves, droughts etc at present!

Hurricanes, tropical cyclones are NOT increasing in strength NOR
in frequency at present.

Intense tornado frequency in US has NOT increased, more tornado
being recorded today due to improved detection and monitoring.

Indian/Asian Monsoon droughts and floods have occurred
irregularly! NO increase/decrease in Monsoon droughts/ floods in
recent years. World-wide droughts show NO change in last 60
years!

Cold Weather Extremes have increased in recent years worldwide,
contrary to IPCC projection.

EW (cold or warm) will continue to occur in future! Need to
develop better resilience to cope with future EW events!
July 7-9, 2014
Climate change Conference Las
Vegas, USA