Transcript Geog 473 Course Overview - The Canadian Social Economy Hub

Five Reasons Why Local Food
Security Will Matter Even More in
the Very Near Future
Aleck Ostry
Canada Research Chair in the Social Determinants of Health and Michael
Smith Foundation for Health Research Senior Scholar
1. Global supplies of food are
decreasing
Financial Times- October 12th
Headline- Dramatic Supply Squeeze Threatens
to Bring Repeat of Global Food Crisis
“Fears of a global food crisis swept the world’s
commodity markets as prices for staples such
as corn, rice, and wheat spiraled after the US
government warned of “dramatically” lower
supplies”
Furthermore according to FT:
“The fall in supplies has prompted countries
such as Russian and Ukraine to impose export
restrictions on grains. Big importers in the
Middle East and North Africa have started to
hoard supplies, which has further tightened the
market”.
Note that as food supplies decline, major
exporters cut back exports or ban them entirely.
People in major import nations begin to hoard
staple foods. Prices of food goes up. This
means that those with lowest income have
considerably reduced access to food.
Lesson is that steady supply of well priced
food is key to food security.
2. Global demand for of food is
increasing
In a related FT article (same issue) entitled
Downbeat corn report stirs up a buying frenzy
“Economists at the FAO state that anything other
than a record crop is now a problem because
of the need to meet rising food, livestock, and
ethanol fuel demand. We need a record crop
every year. If not, we are in trouble.”
The FT article goes on to say:
“While reduced supply is an issue, the bigger
factor remains the strength of demand.”
In particular, corn has experienced a structural
shift in demand:
i) Ethanol now consumes one third US corn
ii) Corn is now major feed for livestock in China,
India and rest of Asia
Why- because of growing demand for western
diets in formerly third world nations. This
impact is huge and developing fast. For
example:
“China in 2008/9 imported 50,000 tons of corn.
This year China will import over 1 million tons
of corn.
Lesson is that speed of increase in demand is
accelerating way beyond historical levels of
demand.
3. Perfect storm of >demand and <
supply are occurring as limits on
arable land reached
Given that arable land is now fully planted the
pressures for increased production will
intensify industrial/genetic farming methods.
Problem is that increased intensity of industrial
agriculture in a world facing climate change
and other environmental limits will run, very
quickly into, severe constraints.
However, greater emphasis on intense
agriculture necessarily means more GHG
emissions per acre which will speed up
negative impacts of climate change on food
production.
Lesson is that we can’t intensify our way out of
this problem.
4. Climate Change will decrease
food supply
Back to the Financial Times (Oct 12th):
“An especially hot summer in the US, droughts in
countries including Russia and Brazil and
heavy rain in Canada and Europe have hit
many grain and oilseed crops this year. The
USDA predicts the country’s stocks of corn
would halve to their lowest levels in 14 years”.
Note what happened this summer in Russia.
Extreme weather event (drought and associated
fires) reduced grain planting.
Politicians moved to ban exports of food to
ensure that Russians were fed first.
Lesson is that formerly secure food supply
chains that we rely upon for food imports
can break very quickly as climate change
crises unfold. Impact is lack of access and
increased price for available stocks.
What lessons for BC? We need to think about what
climate change may mean for BC food production
how it might affect imports.
What foods do we mainly produce “locally” and what
foods are we reliant on for imports.
Need to then know, what climate change we are likely
to see in BC and how these will differ in Fraser ,
Peace and Okanagan Valleys and on Southern and
Central Van Isle.
Need to know what climate change will do in
main places from which we import foods.
We grow all our dairy and most of our meat and
fish. Thus, we need to think about how climate
change will impact dairy, meat and fish
production in BC.
We import most of our veggies, fruit and grains.
Thus need to know where we get these from and
what climate changes will do in these places
Basic answer is that almost all out veggie and
fruits come from California which is in
advanced drought.
Likely impact on BC is that if we don’t diversify
import sources or grow more locally, that
prices for fruit and veggies will inflate even
more rapidly.
5. Nutrition-related illness may push
healthcare system to insolvency
Now about 45 percent of BC budget spent on
healthcare but with predicted increases in dietrelated chronic illness due to poor eating and
obesity, 70 % of budget could be consumed by
healthcare within 15 years.
If healthcare eats up 70% of the budget there will
be little money left for other major priorities.
BC’s Chief Nutritionist and Population Health
Branch working to make local food security the
foundation upon which to build healthy eating
habits in the population in order, over the long
–term, to reduce the burden of chronic dietrelated illness.
Lesson is that there may be a confluence of
negative interests (<supply, > demand, >
climate change threats) and positive
interests (healthcare system recognition of
healthfulness of local food security) that
generate renewed interest in local food
security
However, the take home messages are:
1. The oft quoted message from the
globalized food industry that they can beat
local producers on price could change very
soon as supply, demand, and sustainability
trends are all in the wrong direction.
2. Global food chains will become less
reliable as supplies are “grabbed” by the
strong.
3. Your food costs are going to go way up
and soon.
4. There is a need to stimulate local
production and processing in order to
ensure your access to high quality
reasonably priced foods in the future as
these trends unfold.
5. Development of local foods and food
industry must be done in GHG neutral ways
6. Basic need for instituional purchasing
managers to know what foods are available
locally.
7. What foods are available less locally but
relatively near-by (rest of BC, Alta,
Washington, Oregon)?
What follows are maps of local food selfsufficiency for Vancouver Island.
Vancouver Island: Local Health Areas
The Vancouver Island
Health Authority (1 of 6
provincial health
authorities) contains
14 LHAs.
LHAs are used to collect
and interpret health and
nutrition related data in
BC.
LHAs larger in land area
are less densely populated.
Estimating local food self-sufficiency requires
estimates of local production and
consumption for each LHA
a) Consumption:
Statistics Canada reports Canadian per-capita
consumption averages each year (food disappearance
data).We use BC Nutrition Survey to consumption by
age and gender. These values were multiplied by the
2006 LHA population to estimate consumption
demand for each major food category.
b) Production
Our Census of Agriculture variables provides production
data in hectares of land (for crops) or in number of animals
(for livestock)
Estimated yields (kg of food produced per hectare or per
animal) are available from various yield surveys by
Statistics Canada.
c) Local Food Self-sufficiency
Production/ Consumption by LHA expressed as
percentage
Dairy Self-Sufficiency
LHA
Greater Victoria
Sooke
Saanich
Gulf Islands
Cowichan
Lake Cowichan
Ladysmith
Dairy SSR
0.0%
x
24.3%
0.0%
169.5%
x
128.5%
Nanaimo
7.8%
Qualicum
15.7%
Alberni
40.7%
Courtenay
Campbell River
TOTAL
152.4%
0.4%
35.50%
Fruit Self-Sufficiency
LHA
Fruit SSR
Greater Victoria
1.0%
Sooke
4.1%
Saanich
7.4%
Gulf Islands
75.0%
Cowichan
17.3%
Lake Cowichan
2.5%
Ladysmith
8.9%
Nanaimo
2.9%
Qualicum
8.9%
Alberni
4.6%
Courtenay
17.6%
Campbell River
3.4%
TOTAL
8.1%
Vegetable Self-Sufficiency
LHA
Vegetable SSR
Greater Victoria
1.1%
Sooke
3.4%
Saanich
23.2%
Gulf Islands
21.9%
Cowichan
15.7%
Lake Cowichan
0.3%
Ladysmith
1.4%
Nanaimo
2.0%
Qualicum
5.1%
Alberni
24.3%
Courtenay
10.7%
Campbell River
4.3%
TOTAL
7.3%