Transcript Agriculture as % of GDP 1993

An International Assessment of the Role of
Agricultural Science and Technology for
Development
on behalf of
Hans, Judi and Bob
and the Secretariat
Bangkok
May, 2006
Scope of Presentation
 Peer-review process: Roles and
Responsibilities of authors and review
editors
 What is an Assessment and the features of
a good Executive Summary
 Elements of the IAASTD
 Next Steps
Peer-Review Process:
Roles and Responsibilities of Authors and
Review Editors
Peer-Review Process
 Final draft chapters to Secretariat by July 25
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Executive Summary
Agreed format
High quality tables and graphics
Well referenced
 Secretariat needs at least 3 weeks
 Sent to experts and governments for review on August 11
 Comments back to Secretariat by September 22
 Collated and un-collated comments on web by October 7
 Third authors meeting: November 6-10
 Suggest half day with CLAs
 Five days for all authors
Review Editors
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Nomination deadline for review editors is May 22 (with vitae) or
May 12 (without vitae) – please send names and vitae or at least
names and contact information – 2-3 page vitae
Names will be sent to Bureau for approval by June 7
Work with the chapter authors to assess how to take into account
the peer-review comments
• Especially for controversial and contentious issues
• Final decision regarding the text is with the authors
If there is a difference of opinion between the authors and review
editors, the authors and editors opinions are referred to the cochairs and director to mediate
Review editors will attend the 3rd and 4th global authors meetings
What is an Assessment and the
Characteristics of an Executive Summary
IAASTD Characteristics
Agreed features:
 Present local, regional and global perspective
 Conducted according to an open, transparent,
representative and legitimate process
 Evidence-based, not based on value systems
 Policy relevant, not policy prescriptive, presenting
options not recommendations
 Present different views
 Quantify uncertainties
What is an Assessment?
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An assessment is a critical evaluation of
information, for purposes of guiding decisions
on a complex, public issue
Assessments should reduce complexity but add
value by summarisation, synthesis and sorting
what is known and widely accepted from what
is not known (or not agreed)
Assessments relate to the situation at a
particular time and in a given geographical
domain
Assessment vs Review
Review
Assessment
Audience
Scientists
Decision-makers
Done by
One or a few
Large and varied group
Topic
Simple and
narrow
Broad and complex
Identifies gaps in Research:
curiosity-driven
Knowledge for
implementation: problemdriven
(Un)certainty
statements
Not required
Essential
Judgement
Hidden
Required but clearly
flagged
Coverage
Exhaustive,
historical
Sufficient to deal with
main range of uncertainty
Synthesis
Not required
Essential to reduce
complexity
Features of a good executive summary
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Highlights key findings (decision maker
relevant) supported by arguments/evidence
Should follow the chapter outline but don’t have
to have to have key findings for all the sections
Be brief but not cryptic - avoid ambiguity and
generalities
Tone has to be consistent with the chapter
State degree of confidence wherever possible robust findings and key uncertainties
No literature references
Should identify gaps - what do we know and
what we don’t know
Has to be transferable into the Summary for
Decision makers
Text should be user friendly - not too technical
Example of bullets from exec
summaries
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The risk of extinction will increase for many species that are
already vulnerable. Species with limited climatic ranges and/or
restricted habitat requirements and/or small populations are
typically the most vulnerable to extinction, such as endemic
mountain species and biota restricted to islands (e.g., birds),
peninsulas (e.g., Cape Floral Kingdom), or coastal areas (e.g.,
mangroves, coastal wetlands, and coral reefs). In contrast, species
with extensive, non-patchy ranges, long-range dispersal
mechanisms, and large populations are at less risk of extinction.
While there is little evidence to suggest that climate change will
slow species losses, there is evidence it may increase species losses.
In some regions there may be an increase in local biodiversity—
usually as a result of species introductions, the long-term
consequences of which are hard to foresee.
Example of bullets from exec
summaries
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Recent regional changes in climate, particularly increases in
temperature, have already affected hydrological systems
and terrestrial and marine ecosystems in many parts of the
world. The observed changes in these systems are coherent
across diverse localities and/or regions and are consistent in
direction with the expected effects of regional changes in
temperature. The probability that the observed changes in the
expected direction (with no reference to magnitude) could occur
by chance alone is negligible.
Example of bullets from exec
summaries
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Models of cereal crops indicate that in some temperate
areas potential yields increase with small increases in
temperature but decrease with larger temperature changes
(medium to low confidence), where-as in most tropical and
subtropical regions, potential yields are projected to
decrease for most projected increases in temperature
(medium confidence). Where there is also a large decrease in
rainfall in subtropical and tropical dryland/rainfed systems, crop
yields would be even more adversely affected. These estimates
include some adaptive responses by farmers and the beneficial
effects of CO2 fertilization, but not the impact of projected
increases in pest infestations and changes in climate extremes.
The ability of livestock producers to adapt their herds to the
physiological stresses associated with climate change is poorly
known. Warming of a few ºC or more is projected to increase food
prices globally, and may increase the risk of hunger in vulnerable
populations.
Example of bullets from exec
summaries
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Climate change will exacerbate water shortages
in many water-scarce areas of the world. Demand
for water is generally increasing due to population
growth and economic development, but is falling in
some countries because of increased efficiency of use.
Climate change is projected to substantially reduce
available water (as reflected by projected runoff) in
many of the water-scarce areas of the world, but to
increase it in some other areas (medium confidence).
Freshwater quality generally would be degraded by
higher water temperatures (high confidence), but this
may be offset in some regions by increased flows.
Elements of the IAASTD
Elements of the IAASTD
 Global Assessment
 10 chapters (about 50 pages each, excluding
references), each with a 2-3 page executive
summary
 5-15 page Summary for Decision Makers
 Five Sub-global Assessments
 5 chapters (about 50 pages each, excluding
references), , each with a 2-3 page executive
summary
 5-10 page Summary for Decision Makers
 Synthesis Report
 50 pages
 Summary for Decision Makers of 5-10 pages
Summary for Decision Makers
The most critical element of the assessment
written for policymakers in less technical language
summarizes the most policy-relevant conclusions
ensures government/stakeholder ownership of the
conclusions
written by the experts - normally the Co-chairs,
Director and Chapter CLAs, with critical input by the
lead authors
peer-reviewed by all lead authors, experts and
governments
5-15 pages, including figures
approved by governments/stakeholders in plenary
line-by-line, but with experts in attendance ensuring
total consistency with the underlying reports
Synthesis Report
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Synthesizes the key findings from the global and sub-global
assessments
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Summarizes conclusions that are globally relevant, while
highlighting regional/sub-regional differences
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Will focus on the development goals and the cross-cutting
issues
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NRM (availability, access) emphasis on water
Markets
Public and private sector investments in AKST
and possibly other specific public policy issues, e.g.,
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Human health, including animal-human health interactions
Aquaculture, biofuels, transgenics
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A 25-50 page report and a 5-10 page summary for decision
Makers
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Simultaneous expert and government review
SPM approved line by line, longer report adopted paragraph by
paragraph
Next Steps
Next Steps
 Finalize chapters, including executive summaries, figures,
tables and references
 LAs need to support their CLAs
 Please submit promised text on time
 Secretariat can facilitate teleconferences among and
between author teams if needed
 Please put your Chapters on the web so that we can ensure
consistency across chapters
 Do not avoid potentially controversial issues
 Use terms consistent with the glossary
 Biotechnology, institutions, poverty, …………
Next Steps
 The co-Chairs, in collaboration with the
Secretariat, and in consultation with IWMI,
decide on whether to hold the third global lead
authors meeting in Sri Lanka or move it – likely to
South Africa
 your input to our decision is vital – you must feel safe
 We will make a decision and inform you within
one month
Final Words
Thank you for all your hard work – we
recognize you all have very busy lives and
this is a major sacrifice of your time and
takes you away from your families, friends
and organizations
The spirit at this meeting has been
outstanding and bodes well for the future
Once again, thank you