Transcript Climate Change - Not Just Hot Air

Climate Change – The Other
Theories!
Bruce Peachey, P.Eng.
September 18, 2003
Petroleum Society of CIM
Lloydminster Section
What is Causing the Climate
Change?
 What is the latest data?
• IPCC Science Working Group – Technical
Summary

How do the theories stack up against the
data?
• What theories eliminated or reduced?
Of the remaining theories which is more
strongly supported?
 What are the implications?

Latest Data Indicates

Globally atmospheric GHGs are up.
• Large unexplained CO2 sink in North America
reported

Globally average temperatures are higher
• Northern Hemisphere higher especially last 10
years
• Night-time lows increasing more than day-time
highs
• More over land than over oceans. Cooling in some
areas.

Growing Season – Increase by 1 to 4 days
per decade in northern hemisphere
Latest Data Indicates

Precipitation increases (5-10%) over most
land areas in mid to high latitudes of
Northern Hemisphere
• No observed increase in southern hemisphere
• Correlated to increases in clouds and extreme
weather.

Heavy precipitation events increased in
northern latitudes
• Likely a 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of heavy
precipitation events in last 50 years in Northern
Hemisphere
Latest Data Indicates
Atmospheric Water Vapour Increased in
Northern Hemisphere by several percent
per decade
 Cloud cover in Northern Hemisphere
increased by 2%
• Positively correlated with decrease in diurnal

temperature range
Latest Data Indicates

Sea-Ice in Northern Hemisphere
decreasing
• No trends in Antarctic sea ice apparent.
Non-polar glaciers – Widespread retreat
except in coastal areas.
 El Nino Events – More frequent, persistent
and intense over the last 30 years.
 Coral bleaching – Increased esp. during El
Nino.
 No acceleration in sea level rise detected
over last century

Seven Climate Change
Views







Warming is Not Happening
Real Problem is Waste of Fossil Fuels
GHGs Trapping Solar Radiation
Energy Use Warming Atmosphere
Human Impact Minor or Beneficial
Can’t Afford the Solutions
Water Emissions - Main Climate Change
Driver
Warming Not Happening?
Likely
High Uncertainty
Waste of Fossil Fuels
Should be a real concern.
 Even coal wouldn’t last for ever.
 A good reason on its own to reduce fossil
fuel use.
 Much of the use is for status or convenience
not need.
 Root problem is societal. “Live for today
attitude”

GHG’s Trapping Solar
Radiation
Should be happening and increasing
 Experts can’t agree on how much it
contributes
 Models force fit to history with scaling
factors and adjustments and used to
forecast, but still don’t model clouds, landuse or other human factors.
 GHG must be global yet much of the data
only shows changes in Northern
Hemisphere

Energy Use Warming Atmosphere
Total anthropogenic energy generation is
about 550 ExaJoules/yr enough to warm
atmosphere 1 degree C per year.
 Most energy is turned into heat and
reradiated, so would not build up enough.
 Some turned into water vapour

• Combustion or from Cooling Towers.

Summary – not a major impact.
Human Impact Minor or
Beneficial
 Growing evidence that it is not minor and
that it has been rapidly growing in the last
30-50 years.
 Cost vs. Benefits tough to balance
• More growing days and warmer north
• More severe storms, loss of natural habitat
• Increases in severity where losses are greatest
in people, property or sensitive environments
Can’t Afford the Solutions?
Depends on the cost of the problems and
on what needs to be solved.
 Many energy reductions are very cost
effective and have other benefits
 Reducing energy use is the most cost
effective solution and most likely to
reduce human impacts on climate no
matter what the major cause is.

The New Paradigm View
It’s The WATER!
Global Water Cycle (km3 x 103/yr =
Tt/yr)
Source: Global Warming – The Complete Briefing – John Houghton
What is the impact of this!
40
+4
71
111
Land
425
385
Ocean
40
(–10% due to human water use)
Annual Global Water Withdrawals
Cubic Kilometers (Gt/yr)
Source: Scientific American – February 2001 – Peter H. Gleick
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
Original Chart showed cubic miles x 4.6 to get cubic kilometers
2000
Water Emission Calculations

Energy to Atmosphere
• 9000+ x 109 GJ/yr (exajoules/yr)
• 15-20 times human energy use!

Water to Atmosphere (mainly in
Northern Hemisphere)
• 4,000 Gt/yr
• -10% of Surface flow to oceans
• +5% of Land Evaporation
What Goes Up, Must Come
Down

Water Added to Atmosphere Must Come Out
• 5% of increase in net land evaporation
matches 5-10% increase in precipitation over
land
• Water added in Northern Hemisphere,
comes out in Northern Hemisphere after
forming clouds

When water condenses, heat is
liberated
• Condensation in coldest areas so they warm
The Heat Pipe Effect
Day/Night Cycles
Water Transport
Water added in Hot Dry Areas
Water gives
Up Heat and Falls
In Cold Areas
How Does This Theory Fit the
Facts?
 Source is anthropogenic and increasing
 Should cause increased warming in cold
areas but relatively little effect in
temperatures elsewhere.
 Should cause increased rainfall and
increase severity of storms  Unusual
patterns
 Increases night time low temperatures
due to day/night cycling as dew point is
Water – Impacts
Two thirds of global water use is for
irrigation. Almost all in Northern
Hemisphere
 Most of the rest for industry in same
region
 Four countries account for half the world’s
670 million acres of irrigated cropland

• Over 60% of the water added doesn’t reach the
plants

Also tend to be located near or could
affect areas experiencing the largest
Top Water Emitters from Irrigation
Source: Scientific American – February 2001 – Sandra Postel
25
20
Distribution
15
of Irrigated
Land
10
(%)
5
ex
ic
o
M
Ira
n
Pa
ki
st
an
.
U.
S
na
Ch
i
In
di
a
0
Feeding El Nino & Arctic Warming?
El Nino
Feeding Energy to Melt the Glaciers
& Warm/Dry Out the Prairies?
Water – Implications

Improvements in irrigation practices may
be more important than GHG reductions
• Reduce wasteful irrigation methods;
• Select crops that suit the local climate
• These changes could be made with a fraction of
the expenditures for GHG mitigation.
Focus on the Agriculture Industry
 Many responses to GHG theory proposed
make water situation worse

• Dams, water transfers south, biomass energy,
nuclear power
The Balance of Evidence Says...
 Human Enhanced Water Evaporation
SHOULD BE THE major factor in Climate
Change Equation
 GHG impacts may still be a concern and
are an indicator of energy waste so
should still be reduced by reducing
energy use
 Finding the right solutions means
addressing the right problem.
Does It Matter Which Theory is
Right?
 Likely no theory is entirely right.
 Best strategy is to find “Robust
Solutions” which:
• Minimize Water added to atmosphere
• Reduce Energy Waste  Fossil Fuel
Consumption  Reduce GHG
emissions
• Create Wealth (improve standard of
living)
New Paradigms? Not Really

Sustainable Development is based on:

Reduce
• Waste of energy, water and other resources on trivial
wants so they are there when future generations need
them.

Reuse – Resources more than once

Recycle – If you can’t do the first two.

Replace – Feel good placebo in last place. Wasting
“Renewable” Power is still a waste of resources
• Is it really green?
Summary of Our Choices
We have the ability to choose our
responses
 We should make the choices
proactively
 We should ensure the right actions are
taken rather than the politically correct
or expedient ones.


“There is more to life than increasing
Contact Information
New Paradigm Engineering Ltd.
10444 - 20 Avenue
Edmonton, Alberta
Canada T6J 5A2
tel: 780.448-9195
fax: 780.462.7297
email: [email protected]
web: www.newparadigm.ab.ca
Extra Slides
Bruce Peachey, P.Eng.
President, New Paradigm Engineering
Ltd.
Global Temperature Increases




Changes in measurement, motivation & technology,
might have caused two step changes upwards in
temperatures
1800 - 1920 best global readings would be near
water - No demand for accuracy, just how does it feel
(how hot and how cold)
Three temperature scales in use
Reaumer close to Centigrade
• (0oR= 0oC; 80oR= 100oC so Reaumer gives lower
readings)
• Was there confusion between units in early records?
Global Temperature Increases



Step 1 - 1917 recognized that tropical and arctic air
masses exist and mapping movement of the fronts
allows better weather forecasts.
Focus on humidity and accurate temperatures
Awareness of wet-bulb/dry-bulb grows.
• Before this did people care if the thermometer was wet?
• Wet thermometers give lower average readings


Link to airports inland instead of seaports on the
coast.
Standardization of procedures, temperature scales,
and higher frequency of readings.
Global Temperature Increases

Step 2 - 1980-90 Transition to digital temperature
measurement. Truncated readings have a
systemic impact.
• “Cooling” in N.A. when Canada went metric? Increase in
negative offset.
Deg C
Actual
Digital
Thermometer
15.57
15.5
15
30.25
30.2
30
40.75
40.7
40
-10.18
-10.1
-10
Deg F
Actual
Digital
Thermometer
60.026
60
60
86.45
86.4
86
105.35
105.3
105
13.676
13.6
13
Average
35.85
28.06
35.8
28.025
35
27.5
Offset (C) -0.56
96.53
90.508
96.5
90.45
96
90
Offset (C) -0.2822
Historical Climate Data - Wyoming
Total of Three Wyoming Sites
Source U.S. Historical Climatology Network
(N.B. Wyoming less affected by human activity)
48
47
46
44
43
42
41
40
39
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
Deg F
45
Historical Climate Data - Tennessee
60
59.8
59.6
59.4
59.2
59
58.8
58.6
58.4
58.2
58
57.8
57.6
57.4
57.2
57
Average (1887-1994)
Decade Averages
18
87
18
95
19
03
19
11
19
19
19
27
19
35
19
43
19
51
19
59
19
67
19
75
19
83
19
91
Deg F
Tennessee 15/15 Time Homogeneous Stations
Decade Average - Time Homogeneous Readings
Source - U.S. Historical Climatology Netw ork
(N.B. Peaks correspond to peak industrial activity in the region)
Alberta Overall Carbon Balance
Alberta Carbon Inventory All Sources = 300,000+ Mt (?)
Natural Gas
Exports = 62 Mt/yr
Agri & Wood
Exports = 6 Mt/yr
Petroleum
Exports = 79 Mt/yr
Coal
Exports = 11 Mt/yr
Net to Atmosphere Petro-Chemicals
Exports
= 31 Mt/yr
= 7 Mt/yr
Alberta can continue to supply for 1500 years based on total ca
But only 50 years based on economic reserves!
What does Ice Core Data Say?

Ice core data from Vostok and Sipple sites does indicate:
• CO2 and CH4 levels in the atmosphere tend to vary with temperature.
• Increases in CO2/CH4 are in step with or lag by ~1000 yrs the
temperature increase.
• Decreases in CO2/CH4 lag behind on set of glaciation

Concentrations measured are not comparable to direct
atmospheric measurement
• Ice is not inert with respect to CO2/CH4 which it can absorb or adsorb
• Air had to move for years through meters of snow and ice before it was
trapped in a bubble.
• CO2/CH4 can form hydrates in the bubbles or in deep snow or ice

Conclusion – Ice cores indicate trends in concentration, but
measurements do not indicate absolute atmospheric
concentrations.
The Case of the “Missing Carbon”
The Facts

Global Carbon Emissions:
• Emissions fossil fuel and cement = 5.4 Gt/yr
• Deforestation & land-use = 0.5-2.5 Gt/yr

Carbon Accumulation in Atmosphere:
•

Calculated increase = 3.4 Gt/yr
Remainder (2-4 Gt/yr) is Missing!
• Unexplained sink of CO2 in the northern hemisphere

Are we already sequestering carbon?
• Do we get credits for it?
The Textbook Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere
700 Gt
100 Gt
Oceans
39,100 Gt
Combustion
5 Gt
113 Gt
Combustion
.5 to 2 Gt
Fossil Fuels
& Shale
19,300 Gt
Vegetation &
Humus
1,760 Gt
Source: “Introduction to Environmental Science”
Reality is More Complicated
Atmosphere
700 Gt
+/-?100
Gt
(-.4 Gt?)
Combustion
5 Gt
Homes/Landfills etc.
113 Gt
Combustion
.5 to 2 Gt
+/-?
0.6 Gt
Sewers 1-1.5 Gt
“Fossil” Fuels
& Shale
Oceans
Vegetation &
19,300 Gt
39,100 Gt
Humus
? Gt subducted sediments
1,760 Gt
? Gt subsea seeps
? Gt Sedimentation and formation of carbonates
Compare the Numbers


Fossil Fuel
Combustion
Energy to Atmosphere


• 9000+ x 109 GJ/yr
• 9000+ EJ/yr (exajoules)
• Keeps on giving until it
reaches the ocean!
• 500 - 750 x
GJ/yr
• 500 – 750 EJ/yr (exajoules)
• Mainly a one shot deal as energy
radiated
109

Water to Atmosphere

Carbon to Atmosphere
• 3.4 Gt/yr - Net Measured from all
sources. (What portion is due to
combustion?)
Water to Atmosphere
• 4,000 Gt/yr
• -10% of Surface flow to
oceans
• +5% of Land Evaporation
• 7.5 – 10 Gt/yr
• 1 t CH4  2 t H2O
• 1 t Oil  1 t H2O

Water Losses (2/3
irrigation)
Energy to Atmosphere

Carbon to Atmosphere
• Unknown (+/-) due to plant
growth vs. decay in new
agricultural areas under
Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitude Water
Vapour Concentrations
1981-1994 Oltmans and Hoffman, Nature, 375 (1995)
Altitude (km)
Conc (ppm)
Avg Annual
Increase (%)
10-12
59.2
1.03
12-14
11.88
0.49
14-16
4.66
0.54
16-18
3.87
0.73
18-20
3.85
0.84
20-22
4.07
0.54
22-24
4.21
0.38
24-26
4.29
0.34