Transcript Climate Change - Not Just Hot Air

Climate Change – Not Just Hot
Air
Bruce Peachey, P.Eng. MCIC
President, New Paradigm Engineering
Ltd.
CSChE Halifax – October 2001
Seven Climate Change Views
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Warming is Not Happening
Real Problem is Waste of Fossil Fuels
GHGs Trapping Solar Radiation
Energy Use Warming Atmosphere
Human Impact Minor or Beneficial
Can’t Afford the Solutions
A New Paradigm View
Warming Not Happening
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Various reports and data adjustments both ways
Historical record is not long
• What should we expect coming out of a little ice age?

Motivation and accuracy of measurement not
constant
• Are we comparing apples and oranges
Global Temperature Increases

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Changes in measurement, motivation & technology,
might have caused two step changes upwards in
temperatures
1800 - 1920 best global readings would be near
water - No demand for accuracy, just how does it feel
(how hot and how cold)
Three temperature scales in use
Reaumer close to Centigrade
• (0oR= 0oC; 80oR= 100oC so Reaumer gives lower
readings)
• Was there confusion between units in early records?
Global Temperature Increases
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Step 1 - 1917 recognized that tropical and arctic air
masses exist and mapping movement of the fronts
allows better weather forecasts.
Focus on humidity and accurate temperatures
Awareness of wet-bulb/dry-bulb grows.
• Before this did people care if the thermometer was wet?
• Wet thermometers give lower average readings

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Link to airports inland instead of seaports on the
coast.
Standardization of procedures, temperature scales,
and higher frequency of readings.
Global Temperature Increases

Step 2 - 1980-90 Transition to digital temperature
measurement. Truncated readings have a
systemic impact.
• “Cooling” in N.A. when Canada went metric? Increase in
negative offset.
Deg C
Actual
Digital
Thermometer
15.57
15.5
15
30.25
30.2
30
40.75
40.7
40
-10.18
-10.1
-10
Deg F
Actual
Digital
Thermometer
60.026
60
60
86.45
86.4
86
105.35
105.3
105
13.676
13.6
13
Average
35.85
28.06
35.8
28.025
35
27.5
Offset (C) -0.56
96.53
90.508
96.5
90.45
96
90
Offset (C) -0.2822
Historical Climate Data - Wyoming
Total of Three Wyoming Sites
Source U.S. Historical Climatology Network
(N.B. Wyoming less affected by human activity)
48
47
46
44
43
42
41
40
39
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
Deg F
45
Historical Climate Data - Tennessee
60
59.8
59.6
59.4
59.2
59
58.8
58.6
58.4
58.2
58
57.8
57.6
57.4
57.2
57
Average (1887-1994)
Decade Averages
18
87
18
95
19
03
19
11
19
19
19
27
19
35
19
43
19
51
19
59
19
67
19
75
19
83
19
91
Deg F
Tennessee 15/15 Time Homogeneous Stations
Decade Average - Time Homogeneous Readings
Source - U.S. Historical Climatology Netw ork
(N.B. Peaks correspond to peak industrial activity in the region)
Real Problem is Waste of Fossil
Fuels
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Sources of easy to access fuels running out
At some point we will reach energy breakeven
• i.e. energy required to recover = energy recovered
• Some major deposits (e.g. natural gas hydrates or coal bed
methane) may not breakeven.
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Future supply is a big unkown
• Anywhere from 30-100+ years to infinite if fossil fuels are still
being formed. (Why wouldn’t they be?)
• What will be the next energy source?
Alberta Overall Carbon Balance
Alberta Carbon Inventory All Sources = 300,000+ Mt (?)
Natural Gas
Exports = 62 Mt/yr
Agri & Wood
Exports = 6 Mt/yr
Petroleum
Exports = 79 Mt/yr
Coal
Exports = 11 Mt/yr
Net to Atmosphere Petro-Chemicals
Exports
= 31 Mt/yr
= 7 Mt/yr
Alberta can continue to supply for 1500 years based on total ca
But only 50 years based on economic reserves!
GHGs Trapping Solar Radiation
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Theory has some holes
Warming often leads GHG increase
• Ref: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/vostok.htm
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Current CO2 levels unprecedented?
• Yet it has been over 16-18 times higher in the past.
• “New Views on an Old Planet”, – Tjeerd H. Van Andel
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Shouldn’t GHG effect cause relatively uniform
heating and peak during the daylight hours?
• No sign of “Global Climate Changes” only regional or local
change
• Most of the warming is due to higher night time temperatures
and warming in Arctic/Antarctic areas.
What does Ice Core Data Say?
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Ice core data from Vostok and Sipple sites does indicate:
• CO2 and CH4 levels in the atmosphere tend to vary with temperature.
• Increases in CO2/CH4 are in step with or lag by ~1000 yrs the
temperature increase.
• Decreases in CO2/CH4 lag behind on set of glaciation
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Concentrations measured are not comparable to direct
atmospheric measurement
• Ice is not inert with respect to CO2/CH4 which it can absorb or adsorb
• Air had to move for years through meters of snow and ice before it was
trapped in a bubble.
• CO2/CH4 can form hydrates in the bubbles or in deep snow or ice
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Conclusion – Ice cores indicate trends in concentration, but
measurements do not indicate absolute atmospheric
concentrations.
The Case of the “Missing Carbon”
The Facts
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Global Carbon Emissions:
• Emissions fossil fuel and cement = 5.4 Gt/yr
• Deforestation & land-use = 0.5-2.5 Gt/yr
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Carbon Accumulation in Atmosphere:
•
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Calculated increase = 3.4 Gt/yr
Remainder (2-4 Gt/yr) is Missing!
• Unexplained sink of CO2 in the northern hemisphere
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Are we already sequestering carbon?
• Do we get credits for it?
The Textbook Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere
700 Gt
100 Gt
Oceans
39,100 Gt
Combustion
5 Gt
113 Gt
Combustion
.5 to 2 Gt
Fossil Fuels
& Shale
19,300 Gt
Vegetation &
Humus
1,760 Gt
Source: “Introduction to Environmental Science”
Reality is More Complicated
Atmosphere
700 Gt
+/-?100
Gt
(-.4 Gt?)
Combustion
5 Gt
Homes/Landfills etc.
113 Gt
Combustion
.5 to 2 Gt
+/-?
0.6 Gt
Sewers 1-1.5 Gt
“Fossil” Fuels
& Shale
Oceans
Vegetation &
19,300 Gt
39,100 Gt
Humus
? Gt subducted sediments
1,760 Gt
? Gt subsea seeps
? Gt Sedimentation and formation of carbonates
Energy Use Warming Atmosphere
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Current energy use enough to warm atmosphere 1
degree C per year.
• 450 EJ to warm atmosphere 1 degree C
• Estimate 1996 energy use was 550 EJ.
• Most use ---> Warming of Air

This was pointed out by a British chemist
• Does not seem to be included in climate models?
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Adding Energy Makes Things More Energetic!
Water vapour from combustion also not included?
Human Impact Minor or Beneficial
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Main impact on global temperature is solar energy
output
CO2 is necessary for life.
• The more CO2 the more energy there is for life.
• The more energy the more diversity in living things.
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Organisms transfer CO2 from air and oceans into
long term storage in sediments.
• Less than 0.1 to 1 billion years of supply left.
• Versus 5-10 billion years before the sun expands!
Can’t Afford the Solutions
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Costly and no other benefit to collect most CO2
from fossil fuel sources.
Wind, “Biomass”, Solar, Nuclear, Hydroelectric and
other Energy supplies have their own problems.
• Local impacts on ecology, increase demand for land/water,
require high tech materials, expensive, long term impacts
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Conserving energy is usually cost effective.
• Side benefit is less energy produced and less GHG, water
vapour produced, but more wealth generated.
The New Paradigm View
It’s The WATER!
Global Water Cycle (km3 x 103/yr =
Tt/yr)
Source: Global Warming – The Complete Briefing – John Houghton
What is the impact of this!
40
+4
71
111
Land
425
385
Ocean
40
(–10% due to human water use)
Compare the Numbers
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Fossil Fuel
Combustion
Energy to Atmosphere
• 500 - 750 x 109 GJ/yr
• 500 – 750 EJ/yr (exajoules)
• Mainly a one shot deal as energy
radiated
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• 9000+ x 109 GJ/yr
• 9000+ EJ/yr (exajoules)
• Keeps on giving until it
reaches the ocean!
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Carbon to Atmosphere
• 3.4 Gt/yr - Net Measured from all
sources. (What portion is due to
combustion?)
Water to Atmosphere
• 4,000 Gt/yr
• -10% of Surface flow to
oceans
• +5% of Land Evaporation
Water to Atmosphere
• 7.5 – 10 Gt/yr
• 1 t CH4  2 t H2O
• 1 t Oil  1 t H2O
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Water Losses (2/3
irrigation)
Energy to Atmosphere
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Carbon to Atmosphere
• Unknown (+/-) due to plant
growth vs. decay in new
agricultural areas under
The Heat Pipe Effect
Day/Night Cycles
Water Transport
Water added in Hot Dry Areas
Water gives
Up Heat and Falls
In Cold Areas
Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitude Water
Vapour Concentrations
1981-1994 Oltmans and Hoffman, Nature, 375 (1995)
Altitude (km)
Conc (ppm)
Avg Annual
Increase (%)
10-12
59.2
1.03
12-14
11.88
0.49
14-16
4.66
0.54
16-18
3.87
0.73
18-20
3.85
0.84
20-22
4.07
0.54
22-24
4.21
0.38
24-26
4.29
0.34
Summary for Water Vapour
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Water is more important than CO2/CH4 for climate change
• Source of water and energy for weather
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Climate changes observed in last few decades more than
forecast for CO2 doubling, and doubling hasn’t happened.
A 5% increase in water to the atmosphere due to human
water use, mainly in the northern hemisphere, is a better
explanation
Higher water evaporation from dry areas (I.e. southern
California) more likely to cause unusual weather patterns.
Water is the immediate concern and problem. Climate
change and water shortages/surpluses causing human
disasters.
GHG impacts may still be a concern, but much lower impact
Water also may impact ozone depletion
The Balance of Evidence - Says...
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Warming IS Happening in some Regions (e.g.
Arctic)
“Fossil” Fuel waste IS a Real Problem
(Renewable?)
GHGs Trapping SOME Solar Heat (How much?)
Energy Use IS Warming Atmosphere (Must a bit)
Human Impact COULD BE Harmful or Beneficial
(??)
Can’t Afford SOME Solutions (Need to pick best
ones)
Enhanced Water Evaporation SHOULD BE THE
Does It Matter Which View is
Right?
 Likely no one view is entirely right.
 Best strategy is to find “Robust Solutions”
which:
•
•
•
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Minimize Water added to atmosphere
Reduce Energy Waste
Reduce rate of Fossil Fuel Consumption
Reduce GHG emissions (CO2, CH4 &
H2O)
• Create Wealth (improve average
standard of living)
New Paradigms?
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Changes in water use a likely source of climate
changes. Combine efforts and resources of climate
change and water conservation.
Rethink Kyoto. It might make current problems
worse.
More effort to study regional and global hydrologic
cycles instead of global simulations
Climate studies should involve more disciplines
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Challenge the common knowledge
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Contact Information
New Paradigm Engineering Ltd.
c/o Advanced Technology Centre
#130, 9650-20 Avenue
Edmonton, Alberta
Canada T6N 1G1
tel: 780.448-9195
fax: 780.462.7297
email: [email protected]
web: www.newparadigm.ab.ca