Transcript From Impacts to Adaptation to TDM

From Impacts to Adaptation to
TDM: Highlights from Two
National Assessments
Dr. Quentin Chiotti
Climate Change Programme Director
and Senior Scientist
[email protected]
www.pollutionprobe.org
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ACT Canada TDM Summit
MISSION STATEMENT
Pollution Probe is a Canadian non-profit
organization that:
• Defines environmental problems through research
• Promotes understanding through education
• Presses for practical solutions through advocacy
Pollution Probe is dedicated to
achieving positive and tangible
environmental change.
16th year for the Clean Air Commute
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Presentation Outline
• Responding to climate change
– The case for adaptation
• The impacts of climate change in Canada
– From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a
Changing Climate 2007
– Human Health in a Changing Climate: A
Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and
Adaptive Capacity
• Climate change and air quality: Lessons
from Ontario
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Responding to Climate Change
Climate Change
Temperature
Precipitation
Extreme Weather Events
Sea Level Rise
Mitigation
(Emission
Reduction)
Impacts
and
Adaptation
Adaptive
Capacity
Regions
Unmanaged and
Managed Ecosystems
Sectors
Vulnerable Groups
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Effects
Vulnerability
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Linkages Between Climate
Change and Air Pollution
• Chemical/atmospheric interactions
– Some air pollutants are GHGs
– Aerosols known to off-set global warming
• Actions that directly reduce energy use will lower emissions of GHGs
and CACs
– co-benefits
• Some actions to reduce GHGs will lead to an increase in CACs and
vice versa
– Diesel and pollution controls
• Some actions can reduce emissions and enhance adaptive capacity
• Synergistic health effects from heat stress and air pollution
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Global context – 4th Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (2007)
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”
(WGI SPM)
“Adaptation will be necessary to address
impacts resulting from the warming which
is already unavoidable” (WGII SPM)
Even in regions with high incomes, some
people, areas and activities can be
particularly at risk from climate change
(Synthesis Report)
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What is adaptation to climate change?
Adaptation involves
making adjustments
in our decisions,
activities and thinking
because of observed
or expected changes
in climate- to
moderate harm
(reduce negative
impacts) or take
advantage of new
opportunities.
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Vulnerability
• Vulnerability to climate change is the
degree to which a system is susceptible
to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects
of climate change, including variability and
extremes.
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Adaptive Capacity
• The ability of a system to adjust to climate
change (including climate variability and
extremes) to moderate potential damages,
to take advantage of opportunities, or to
cope with the consequences
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Impacts and Adaptation: Two National
Assessment Reports
http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php
[email protected]
E-Mail: [email protected]
Linking climate change to health – Canadian efforts
Human Health in a Changing Climate: A Canadian
Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacity
Table of Contents
Introduction: Health in a Changing Climate
Assessment Methods
Impacts of Climate Change on Water, Food,
Vector and Rodent-borne Diseases in Canada
Air Quality, Climate and Health
Canadian Vulnerabilities to Natural Hazards
and Extreme Weather
Health Impacts of Climate Change in Quebec
Health Impacts of Climate Change in Canada’s North
Vulnerabilities, Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity in
Canada
• The report reflects the advances made in understanding
climate change impacts and adaptation in Canada.
• It highlights key issues facing each region of the country
(Northern Canada, Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario,
Prairies and BC) in a policy-relevant manner.
• It provides a concise, credible up-to-date source of
information that will inform adaptation decision-making.
• There are three main products:
Full Scientific
Report
Synthesis
Highlights
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Key Findings
• The results from the assessment provide sound
scientific evidence that Canada’s climate is changing
and that the impacts from of a changing climate are
already evident in every region of the country.
• It is anticipated that climate change will exacerbate
many current climate risks, while presenting new risks
and opportunities, especially for communities,
infrastructure and ecosystems.
• While Canada has a relatively high capacity to adapt,
this capacity is unevenly distributed between and within
regions and populations.
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The impacts of changing climate are already
evident in every region of Canada
Permafrost
degradation
Reduced ice cover
Reduced snow cover
Increased
coastal
erosion
Changing animal
distributions
Increased coastal erosion
Reduced glacier cover
Earlier onset of
spring
Increased plant productivity
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Lower lake and river levels
Lead authors:
Quentin Chiotti (Pollution Probe)
Beth Lavender (Natural Resources Canada)
Contributing authors:
Ken Abraham (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)
John Casselman (Queen’s University)
Steve Colombo (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)
Philippe Crabbé (University of Ottawa)
Bill Crins (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)
Rob Davis (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)
Al Douglas (MIRARCO)
Paul A. Gray (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)
Lawrence Ignace (Environment Canada)
Chris Lemieux (University of Waterloo)
Rob McAlpine (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)
Martyn Obbard (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)
Charles O'Hara (Ontario Ministry of Transportation)
Jacqueline Richard (MIRARCO)
Carrie Sadowski (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)
Daniel Scott (University of Waterloo)
Mark Taylor (AMEC Earth and Environmental)
Ellen Wall (University of Guelph)
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Climate change will exacerbate many current climate risks, and
present new risks and opportunities, with significant implications for
communities, infrastructure and ecosystems.
Exacerbate current climate risks
• Reduced water quality & quantity
• Increasing demand for water
• Increased frequency and
magnitude of extreme events
• Increased heat waves
• Increased smog episodes
• Increased risk of diseases and
pests
• Increased risk of forest fires
New risks and opportunities
• New diseases and pests
• New challenges to management
of protected areas
• New opportunities for more
profitable crops and tree species
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Annual Change: Mean Temperature and
Precipitation
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Health Effects Estimates
• OMA (2005) study
– estimated 5,829 premature deaths
annually – rising to 10,061 by 2026
– 16,807 hospital admissions
– 59,696 emergency room visits
– 29,292,100 minor illness days
• Health Canada & Environment Canada
(2005) study
– 2,900 premature deaths in 4 Ontario cities
• Toronto Public Health (2004) study
– 1,700 premature deaths and 6,000
hospital admissions annually
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Heat waves in Canadian cities will become
more frequent
Fredericton
20802100
Quebec
20412069
20202040
Toronto
Number of hot
days above
30C
19611990
London
Winnipeg
Calgary
Victoria
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Background ambient levels of O3 could increase by 40 ppm
Emission increase by 20% by 2050 and 32% by 2080. The annual total
number of poor O3 days would increase 4-11 and 10-20 respectively.
Air pollution mortality will increase by 20-25% and 30-40% by 2050 and 2080
Number of heat-related deaths will double and triple
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MORE INFORMATION
• Synthesis and Highlights available on-line:
http://adaptation2007.nrcan.gc.ca
– Download pdfs
– Read author bios
– Order copies of the report
• Full report released on March 7th 2008
• Questions? Contact NRCan at: [email protected]
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