Transcript Total: 750 MW

Hydro-Electricity
UK Appraisal Until 2020 and 2030
Thursday 24th February, 2005
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
1
What is Hydro-Electricity?
Electricity Generated by the
flow of water past turbines at
the base of a dam
Why the Base?
Here is where pressure is
greatest
Famous
Example:
Hoover Dam
Colorado
river, Nevada
USA
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
Creates 4
billion
Kilowatt
hours per
year for 1.3
million
people in
Nevada
Arizona and
California
2
Hydro in the United Kingdom
Requires large
upland Lakes
Development
mostly in
Scotland
At present Installed
capacity of Hydro in
UK is 1500MWe
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
3
United Kingdom Government Policy
2003 government white paper ‘our energy future – creating a low carbon economy’
First annual report reaffirmed that addressing climate change was at
the centre of UK energy policy
United nations Convention on Climate Change – Kyoto protocol calls for
a reduction in CO² emissions to below 1990 levels
EU Renewables Directive calls for 22% of energy in Europe to be Renewable
by 2010
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
4
Scottish and Southern Energy
Currently
upgrading
Hydro
equipment
turbine rudders
guide vanes and
generators
increasing
efficiency
Scottish Hydro Electric the UK’s
biggest hydro generator with
1350MW capacity representing
roughly 40% of whole UK
renewable capacity
275MW
refurbished since
2002 and another
90MW to be
completed by this
year. This has
increased
output by 5%
from same
amount of water
Loch Laggan Dam,
West Highlands
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
5
Environmental Implications
Dam collapses in
the USA
Hope Mills, North
Carolina– May
26th 2003
Medford, New Jersey
– July 19th 2004
Austin, Texas – April 7th
1900
Collapses occur more
often than you think
with another recent
event in Pakistan last
week!
Collapse poses risk to
human life from raging
currents and debris
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
6
Environmental Implications
Hydro-electricity doesn’t
produce greenhouse
gases which are a cause
of climate change. Unlike
fossil fuel generation
Nor does it
produce any
of the
controversy
of nuclear
generation
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
However it
still involves
changing
the natural
Environment
7
Transport Issues
As most Hydro is generated in
Scotland the question is how do
you get it to south east England?
PYLONS!!!
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
8
Planning and Technical Constraints
Small Scale
Hydro only
at an early
stage in its
development
Just how much
more can exiting
technology be
refurbished?
What
happens if
the lake
above the
dam freezes
over?
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
How can hydro progress
in areas protected by the
Government?
9
Electricity cannot be
stored so it has to be
produced at exact levels
of demand
Storage
This makes Hydro the perfect
generating method as it can
regulate its production levels
instantly
Also validates use
of pump storage
schemes, which
use excess of
peak power to
pump water which
is then released
for generation at
peak times
Dinorwig,
North Wales
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
10
Storage – Crucial Moments !!!
Final of the World Cup
England Expects
At the New Wembley
Referee Blows
for Penalty
shoot out as
freak blizzard
descends
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
The whole
country switches
on their kettles
to make hot
water bottles….
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
11
AND THE GERMANS WIN AS USUAL
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
12
Pessimistic Outcome
Large Scale Hydro Equipment rapidly
reaches life expiry
Small Scale Hydro Technology slow
to advance and meets strong
opposition
2020
2030
Small Scale Hydro:
250 MW
Small Scale Hydro:
500 MW
Large Scale Hydro:
500 MW
Large Scale Hydro:
250 MW
Total: 750 MW
Total: 750 MW
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
13
Optimistic Approach
Life extension work increases Large
Scale Hydro capacity
Small Scale technology advances
rapidly and becomes commonplace
throughout UK and beyond
2020
2030
Small Scale Hydro:
750 MW
Small Scale Hydro:
3000 MW
Large Scale Hydro:
2000 MW
Large Scale Hydro:
2200 MW
Total: 2750 MW
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Total: 5200 MW
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
14
Likely Outcome
Most Large Scale Hydro will
remain on line but capacity will
not see large improvements
Small Scale Projects will start to
appear but will meet opposition
and new technical constraints
2020
2030
Predictions for Hydro-Electric Generating
Capacity for the years 2020 and 2030
Small Scale Hydro:
500 MW
Large Scale Hydro:
1500 MW
Total: 2000 MW
Generating Capacity (MW)
6000
Small Scale Hydro:
1500 MW
5000
4000
Optimistic
3000
Pessimistic
Likely
2000
1000
Large Scale Hydro:
1800 MW
Total: 3300 MW
0
2005
2020
2030
Year
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
15
Energy Generated (PJ) in the Years
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Optimistic
17
21
25
30
42
57
Pessimistic
17
14
12
8
8
8
Likely
17
18
20
22
28
36
Varying Predictions of the amount of UK electricity that will be
generated by Hydro-Electric generation methods for years up to 2030
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
16
Hydro-Electric Generation Projections up
to 2030
Energy Generation (PJ)
60
50
40
Optimistic
30
Pessimistic
Likely
20
10
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year
Thursday 24th February,
Week 7
Dale Turner - A Hydro-Electric
Future?
17